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UST vs. TMF
Performance
Return for Risk
Drawdowns
Volatility
Dividends

UST vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.13%/yr vs -16.56%/yr for TMF. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

UST vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

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Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.88% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -6.13% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -2.13%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.56% annualized return.

UST

1D
-0.56%
1M
-0.51%
YTD
-2.88%
6M
-4.24%
1Y
3.81%
3Y*
-0.51%
5Y*
-6.75%
10Y*
-2.13%

TMF

1D
-1.14%
1M
1.22%
YTD
-6.13%
6M
-11.63%
1Y
0.90%
3Y*
-20.78%
5Y*
-30.52%
10Y*
-16.56%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

UST vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

2026 (YTD)202520242023202220212020201920182017
UST
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury		-2.88%10.26%-6.19%0.16%-30.19%-7.81%18.83%13.34%-1.09%3.21%
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF		-6.13%-2.94%-35.95%-13.01%-72.60%-19.80%39.02%34.75%-11.01%22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between UST and TMF is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.91

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.90

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.90

Correlation (10Y)
Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

0.90

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 3, 2010

0.90

The correlation between UST and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.

UST vs. TMF - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors
UST
TMF

Financial Services

97.4%
18.7%

Basic Materials

-

-

Communication Services

-

-

Consumer Cyclical

-

-

Consumer Defensive

-

-

Energy

-

-

Healthcare

-

-

Industrials

-

-

Real Estate

-

-

Technology

-

-

Utilities

-

-

Financial Services

UST
97.4%
TMF
18.7%

Basic Materials

UST

-

TMF

-

Communication Services

UST

-

TMF

-

Consumer Cyclical

UST

-

TMF

-

Consumer Defensive

UST

-

TMF

-

Energy

UST

-

TMF

-

Healthcare

UST

-

TMF

-

Industrials

UST

-

TMF

-

Real Estate

UST

-

TMF

-

Technology

UST

-

TMF

-

Utilities

UST

-

TMF

-

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ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

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Return for Risk

UST vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.
UST
UST Risk / Return Rank: 1414
Overall Rank
UST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1515
Sharpe Ratio Rank
UST Sortino Ratio Rank: 1313
Sortino Ratio Rank
UST Omega Ratio Rank: 1313
Omega Ratio Rank
UST Calmar Ratio Rank: 1414
Calmar Ratio Rank
UST Martin Ratio Rank: 1515
Martin Ratio Rank
TMF
TMF Risk / Return Rank: 99
Overall Rank
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 99
Sharpe Ratio Rank
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 99
Sortino Ratio Rank
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 99
Omega Ratio Rank
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 99
Calmar Ratio Rank
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 99
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

UST vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

USTTMFDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility
0.40
0.03

+0.37

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk
0.64
0.25

+0.39

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.07

1.03

+0.05

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

0.44

0.03

+0.40

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

1.26

0.08

+1.18

Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

UST vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current UST Sharpe Ratio is 0.40, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of 0.03. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of UST and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

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Sharpe Ratios by Period

USTTMFDifference

Sharpe Ratio (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.40

0.03

+0.37

Sharpe Ratio (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

-0.44

-0.66

+0.22

Sharpe Ratio (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

-0.16

-0.38

+0.22

Sharpe Ratio (All Time)

Calculated using the full available price history

0.19

-0.14

+0.33

Drawdowns

UST vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TMF.

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Drawdown Indicators

USTTMFDifference

Max Drawdown

Largest peak-to-trough decline

-47.99%

-92.89%

+44.90%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

Largest decline over 1 year

-8.75%

-26.51%

+17.76%

Max Drawdown (3Y)

Largest decline over 3 years

-16.87%

-56.31%

+39.44%

Max Drawdown (5Y)

Largest decline over 5 years

-43.97%

-88.81%

+44.84%

Max Drawdown (10Y)

Largest decline over 10 years

-47.99%

-92.89%

+44.90%

Current Drawdown

Current decline from peak

-38.33%

-92.23%

+53.90%

Average Drawdown

Average peak-to-trough decline

-15.13%

-43.63%

+28.50%

Ulcer Index

Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks

3.03%

11.49%

-8.46%

Volatility

UST vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 3.10%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.09%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Loading charts...

Volatility by Period

USTTMFDifference

Volatility (1M)

Calculated over the trailing 1-month period

3.10%

8.09%

-4.99%

Volatility (6M)

Calculated over the trailing 6-month period

6.58%

19.01%

-12.43%

Volatility (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

9.50%

28.76%

-19.26%

Volatility (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized

15.47%

46.75%

-31.28%

Volatility (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized

13.18%

43.92%

-30.74%

UST vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

UST vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.49%, less than TMF's 4.15% yield.

PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF		4.15%4.06%4.29%2.82%1.62%0.13%2.23%0.94%1.49%0.41%0.00%0.00%
UST
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury		3.49%3.65%4.09%3.49%0.47%0.27%0.53%1.42%1.71%0.84%0.64%0.75%

Frequently Asked Questions

With a correlation of 0.91, UST and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to UST (3.10%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TMF's -92.89%.

On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.13% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.10%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.13% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 3.49% for UST.

UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 1.01% for TMF.

UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.40 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.

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