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Backtest (3/26/25)
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Backtest (3/26/25), comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 12, 2023, corresponding to the inception date of TKO

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-3.43%-3.84%-1.98%16.08%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Backtest (3/26/25)
0.56%-6.43%0.95%1.46%9.20%
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
1.03%-8.44%-8.77%-14.68%-26.04%13.80%18.00%22.03%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
-1.98%-7.16%-12.80%14.47%15.19%39.72%39.64%31.19%
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
1.44%-3.64%5.92%0.86%-7.83%19.30%18.99%18.99%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.93%-1.47%-4.88%-6.08%60.69%85.17%66.71%70.07%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
1.15%-15.16%54.85%38.13%-3.63%32.06%21.56%40.32%
NEM
Newmont Goldcorp Corporation
0.23%-3.77%14.45%32.61%137.09%35.39%16.48%18.66%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
3.45%-4.76%15.80%20.70%30.61%30.74%25.22%17.47%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
-1.48%-13.65%-8.09%0.02%-25.56%-7.96%-3.55%-9.91%
TKO
TKO Group Holdings Inc.
1.34%-6.98%-2.11%3.71%30.28%
WMT
Walmart Inc.
0.84%-1.46%13.14%24.19%41.38%37.98%24.34%20.62%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 13, 2023, Backtest (3/26/25)'s average daily return is +0.10%, while the average monthly return is +2.07%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 2.8 years.

Historically, 81% of months were positive and 19% were negative. The best month was Aug 2024 with a return of +10.2%, while the worst month was Dec 2024 at -8.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 14 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 1 months.

On a daily basis, Backtest (3/26/25) closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -7.2%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20261.75%6.91%-7.63%0.47%0.95%
20254.31%6.46%-2.73%2.74%0.87%2.15%-1.69%1.15%2.95%-1.99%1.87%1.12%18.15%
20245.09%8.69%6.08%0.27%4.56%4.17%0.92%10.17%0.49%0.04%9.60%-8.17%48.87%
2023-3.35%1.73%5.60%1.69%5.58%

Benchmark Metrics

Backtest (3/26/25) has an annualized alpha of 15.31%, beta of 0.69, and R² of 0.59 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 13, 2023.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (99.25%) than losses (15.55%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 15.31% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • Beta of 0.69 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha
15.31%
Beta
0.69
0.59
Upside Capture
99.25%
Downside Capture
15.55%

Expense Ratio

Backtest (3/26/25) has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Backtest (3/26/25) ranks 13 for risk / return — in the bottom 13% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.


Backtest (3/26/25) Risk / Return Rank: 1313
Overall Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1212
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) Sortino Ratio Rank: 1010
Sortino Ratio Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) Omega Ratio Rank: 1212
Omega Ratio Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) Calmar Ratio Rank: 1616
Calmar Ratio Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) Martin Ratio Rank: 1717
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

0.60

0.88

-0.28

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

0.94

1.37

-0.43

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.14

1.21

-0.07

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

1.04

1.39

-0.35

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

3.86

6.43

-2.58


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
6-1.04-1.350.83-0.91-1.47
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
510.360.781.110.561.37
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
24-0.42-0.450.94-0.35-0.60
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
811.472.171.273.027.54
TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
36-0.070.241.03-0.02-0.03
NEM
Newmont Goldcorp Corporation
932.983.021.445.1116.85
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
781.381.891.242.937.43
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
7-0.96-1.210.83-0.90-1.48
TKO
TKO Group Holdings Inc.
700.921.441.192.205.27
WMT
Walmart Inc.
871.722.651.333.9210.75

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Backtest (3/26/25) Sharpe ratios as of Apr 3, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 0.60
  • All Time: 2.01

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.98 to 1.66, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio places it in the bottom 25%. This suggests weaker risk-adjusted returns than most portfolios, possibly due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It may be worth reviewing the allocation. You can use the Portfolio Optimization tool to explore options for improving the Sharpe ratio.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Backtest (3/26/25) compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Backtest (3/26/25) provided a 2.05% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio2.05%1.30%1.09%1.65%1.30%2.08%1.74%1.83%1.57%1.40%1.62%1.72%
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
7.17%2.15%0.48%0.25%0.31%6.23%2.68%3.89%1.86%1.21%2.50%2.16%
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
0.67%0.56%0.67%0.78%1.07%1.23%1.75%1.96%1.94%2.46%2.77%2.37%
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
1.10%1.12%0.82%1.25%1.48%1.27%1.72%1.74%2.00%1.97%2.17%2.64%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.02%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.11%0.05%0.12%0.27%0.46%0.29%0.45%1.20%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
0.50%0.74%1.37%0.83%1.37%0.88%2.20%0.22%0.55%0.30%0.10%0.22%
NEM
Newmont Goldcorp Corporation
0.89%1.00%2.69%3.87%4.66%3.55%1.74%3.31%1.62%0.67%0.37%0.56%
CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
0.96%1.08%1.21%1.18%1.56%1.38%1.68%1.12%1.19%0.83%1.30%1.36%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
3.63%3.28%2.72%2.45%2.14%1.83%1.88%2.07%2.85%2.39%2.34%2.06%
TKO
TKO Group Holdings Inc.
1.33%1.10%0.00%4.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
WMT
Walmart Inc.
0.76%0.84%0.92%1.45%1.58%1.52%1.50%1.78%2.23%2.07%2.89%3.20%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Backtest (3/26/25). A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Backtest (3/26/25) was 11.83%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 26 trading sessions.

The current Backtest (3/26/25) drawdown is 7.46%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-11.83%Feb 19, 202535Apr 8, 202526May 15, 202561
-9.5%Mar 3, 202620Mar 30, 2026
-8.25%Dec 2, 202414Dec 19, 202433Feb 10, 202547
-5.67%Jul 16, 202415Aug 5, 20245Aug 12, 202420
-4.78%Sep 15, 202313Oct 3, 20239Oct 16, 202322

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 25 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.34, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkTPLNEMCBOETKOKABBVKDPLLYTTWOTSLATMUSNFLXAZOKRERIECHDSMCIDPZPGRAXONWMTEDNVDACOSTRSGPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.300.24-0.140.320.060.200.080.350.390.560.100.450.18-0.070.210.050.480.310.070.510.22-0.060.640.390.210.70
TPL0.301.000.21-0.080.160.060.090.010.070.080.170.020.080.07-0.000.090.010.230.170.070.240.070.010.160.070.120.43
NEM0.240.211.000.020.100.060.070.120.100.220.16-0.010.100.150.09-0.020.050.120.15-0.010.140.140.190.070.090.120.34
CBOE-0.14-0.080.021.000.030.160.120.090.00-0.04-0.150.16-0.020.110.230.150.20-0.190.040.27-0.090.120.29-0.210.090.180.06
TKO0.320.160.100.031.000.070.060.060.090.290.190.050.280.04-0.000.100.030.140.190.040.250.09-0.020.180.110.070.31
K0.060.060.060.160.071.000.200.350.030.030.020.21-0.040.150.290.170.30-0.080.140.190.020.110.28-0.160.080.210.14
ABBV0.200.090.070.120.060.201.000.200.300.02-0.010.22-0.020.240.110.260.280.030.160.190.020.160.28-0.020.130.230.25
KDP0.080.010.120.090.060.350.201.000.010.080.040.26-0.000.170.230.180.32-0.080.160.20-0.010.180.32-0.150.190.250.13
LLY0.350.070.100.000.090.030.300.011.000.120.130.060.150.15-0.030.170.120.220.190.140.140.190.030.240.260.190.52
TTWO0.390.080.22-0.040.290.030.020.080.121.000.270.050.330.12-0.080.090.000.220.200.000.330.10-0.080.280.170.130.32
TSLA0.560.170.16-0.150.190.02-0.010.040.130.271.00-0.040.270.02-0.140.03-0.050.330.16-0.090.290.16-0.140.350.200.030.32
TMUS0.100.02-0.010.160.050.210.220.260.060.05-0.041.000.100.260.310.220.27-0.090.160.320.020.250.35-0.060.250.360.21
NFLX0.450.080.10-0.020.28-0.04-0.02-0.000.150.330.270.101.000.06-0.010.11-0.050.280.110.100.350.18-0.140.360.290.130.41
AZO0.180.070.150.110.040.150.240.170.150.120.020.260.061.000.220.240.22-0.020.230.230.100.240.24-0.000.280.380.30
KR-0.07-0.000.090.23-0.000.290.110.23-0.03-0.08-0.140.31-0.010.221.000.160.30-0.150.200.23-0.070.320.34-0.210.300.300.12
ERIE0.210.09-0.020.150.100.170.260.180.170.090.030.220.110.240.161.000.26-0.020.180.420.140.190.29-0.040.240.310.29
CHD0.050.010.050.200.030.300.280.320.120.00-0.050.27-0.050.220.300.261.00-0.070.170.26-0.070.300.38-0.210.230.320.15
SMCI0.480.230.12-0.190.14-0.080.03-0.080.220.220.33-0.090.28-0.02-0.15-0.02-0.071.000.13-0.100.310.05-0.170.540.14-0.060.41
DPZ0.310.170.150.040.190.140.160.160.190.200.160.160.110.230.200.180.170.131.000.100.210.220.110.140.270.240.37
PGR0.070.07-0.010.270.040.190.190.200.140.00-0.090.320.100.230.230.420.26-0.100.101.000.040.240.29-0.090.250.400.39
AXON0.510.240.14-0.090.250.020.02-0.010.140.330.290.020.350.10-0.070.14-0.070.310.210.041.000.10-0.120.390.230.160.48
WMT0.220.070.140.120.090.110.160.180.190.100.160.250.180.240.320.190.300.050.220.240.101.000.210.010.560.310.33
ED-0.060.010.190.29-0.020.280.280.320.03-0.08-0.140.35-0.140.240.340.290.38-0.170.110.29-0.120.211.00-0.290.130.380.08
NVDA0.640.160.07-0.210.18-0.16-0.02-0.150.240.280.35-0.060.36-0.00-0.21-0.04-0.210.540.14-0.090.390.01-0.291.000.17-0.030.58
COST0.390.070.090.090.110.080.130.190.260.170.200.250.290.280.300.240.230.140.270.250.230.560.130.171.000.370.43
RSG0.210.120.120.180.070.210.230.250.190.130.030.360.130.380.300.310.32-0.060.240.400.160.310.38-0.030.371.000.41
Portfolio0.700.430.340.060.310.140.250.130.520.320.320.210.410.300.120.290.150.410.370.390.480.330.080.580.430.411.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Sep 13, 2023