Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Backtest (3/26/25), comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 12, 2023, corresponding to the inception date of TKO
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Backtest (3/26/25) | 0.56% | -6.43% | 0.95% | 1.46% | 9.20% | — | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 1.03% | -8.44% | -8.77% | -14.68% | -26.04% | 13.80% | 18.00% | 22.03% |
LLY Eli Lilly and Company | -1.98% | -7.16% | -12.80% | 14.47% | 15.19% | 39.72% | 39.64% | 31.19% |
RSG Republic Services, Inc. | 1.44% | -3.64% | 5.92% | 0.86% | -7.83% | 19.30% | 18.99% | 18.99% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.93% | -1.47% | -4.88% | -6.08% | 60.69% | 85.17% | 66.71% | 70.07% |
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 1.15% | -15.16% | 54.85% | 38.13% | -3.63% | 32.06% | 21.56% | 40.32% |
NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corporation | 0.23% | -3.77% | 14.45% | 32.61% | 137.09% | 35.39% | 16.48% | 18.66% |
CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 3.45% | -4.76% | 15.80% | 20.70% | 30.61% | 30.74% | 25.22% | 17.47% |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | -1.48% | -13.65% | -8.09% | 0.02% | -25.56% | -7.96% | -3.55% | -9.91% |
TKO TKO Group Holdings Inc. | 1.34% | -6.98% | -2.11% | 3.71% | 30.28% | — | — | — |
WMT Walmart Inc. | 0.84% | -1.46% | 13.14% | 24.19% | 41.38% | 37.98% | 24.34% | 20.62% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 13, 2023, Backtest (3/26/25)'s average daily return is +0.10%, while the average monthly return is +2.07%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 2.8 years.
Historically, 81% of months were positive and 19% were negative. The best month was Aug 2024 with a return of +10.2%, while the worst month was Dec 2024 at -8.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 14 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 1 months.
On a daily basis, Backtest (3/26/25) closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -7.2%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75% | 6.91% | -7.63% | 0.47% | 0.95% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 4.31% | 6.46% | -2.73% | 2.74% | 0.87% | 2.15% | -1.69% | 1.15% | 2.95% | -1.99% | 1.87% | 1.12% | 18.15% |
| 2024 | 5.09% | 8.69% | 6.08% | 0.27% | 4.56% | 4.17% | 0.92% | 10.17% | 0.49% | 0.04% | 9.60% | -8.17% | 48.87% |
| 2023 | -3.35% | 1.73% | 5.60% | 1.69% | 5.58% |
Benchmark Metrics
Backtest (3/26/25) has an annualized alpha of 15.31%, beta of 0.69, and R² of 0.59 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 13, 2023.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (99.25%) than losses (15.55%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 15.31% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.69 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 15.31%
- Beta
- 0.69
- R²
- 0.59
- Upside Capture
- 99.25%
- Downside Capture
- 15.55%
Expense Ratio
Backtest (3/26/25) has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Backtest (3/26/25) ranks 13 for risk / return — in the bottom 13% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.60 | 0.88 | -0.28 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 0.94 | 1.37 | -0.43 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.14 | 1.21 | -0.07 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.04 | 1.39 | -0.35 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 3.86 | 6.43 | -2.58 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 6 | -1.04 | -1.35 | 0.83 | -0.91 | -1.47 |
LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 51 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.56 | 1.37 |
RSG Republic Services, Inc. | 24 | -0.42 | -0.45 | 0.94 | -0.35 | -0.60 |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 81 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 1.27 | 3.02 | 7.54 |
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 36 | -0.07 | 0.24 | 1.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corporation | 93 | 2.98 | 3.02 | 1.44 | 5.11 | 16.85 |
CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 78 | 1.38 | 1.89 | 1.24 | 2.93 | 7.43 |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 7 | -0.96 | -1.21 | 0.83 | -0.90 | -1.48 |
TKO TKO Group Holdings Inc. | 70 | 0.92 | 1.44 | 1.19 | 2.20 | 5.27 |
WMT Walmart Inc. | 87 | 1.72 | 2.65 | 1.33 | 3.92 | 10.75 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Backtest (3/26/25) provided a 2.05% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.05% | 1.30% | 1.09% | 1.65% | 1.30% | 2.08% | 1.74% | 1.83% | 1.57% | 1.40% | 1.62% | 1.72% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 7.17% | 2.15% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 6.23% | 2.68% | 3.89% | 1.86% | 1.21% | 2.50% | 2.16% |
LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 0.67% | 0.56% | 0.67% | 0.78% | 1.07% | 1.23% | 1.75% | 1.96% | 1.94% | 2.46% | 2.77% | 2.37% |
RSG Republic Services, Inc. | 1.10% | 1.12% | 0.82% | 1.25% | 1.48% | 1.27% | 1.72% | 1.74% | 2.00% | 1.97% | 2.17% | 2.64% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 0.50% | 0.74% | 1.37% | 0.83% | 1.37% | 0.88% | 2.20% | 0.22% | 0.55% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.22% |
NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corporation | 0.89% | 1.00% | 2.69% | 3.87% | 4.66% | 3.55% | 1.74% | 3.31% | 1.62% | 0.67% | 0.37% | 0.56% |
CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.96% | 1.08% | 1.21% | 1.18% | 1.56% | 1.38% | 1.68% | 1.12% | 1.19% | 0.83% | 1.30% | 1.36% |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 3.63% | 3.28% | 2.72% | 2.45% | 2.14% | 1.83% | 1.88% | 2.07% | 2.85% | 2.39% | 2.34% | 2.06% |
TKO TKO Group Holdings Inc. | 1.33% | 1.10% | 0.00% | 4.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
WMT Walmart Inc. | 0.76% | 0.84% | 0.92% | 1.45% | 1.58% | 1.52% | 1.50% | 1.78% | 2.23% | 2.07% | 2.89% | 3.20% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Backtest (3/26/25). A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Backtest (3/26/25) was 11.83%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 26 trading sessions.
The current Backtest (3/26/25) drawdown is 7.46%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -11.83% | Feb 19, 2025 | 35 | Apr 8, 2025 | 26 | May 15, 2025 | 61 |
| -9.5% | Mar 3, 2026 | 20 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -8.25% | Dec 2, 2024 | 14 | Dec 19, 2024 | 33 | Feb 10, 2025 | 47 |
| -5.67% | Jul 16, 2024 | 15 | Aug 5, 2024 | 5 | Aug 12, 2024 | 20 |
| -4.78% | Sep 15, 2023 | 13 | Oct 3, 2023 | 9 | Oct 16, 2023 | 22 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 25 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.34, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | TPL | NEM | CBOE | TKO | K | ABBV | KDP | LLY | TTWO | TSLA | TMUS | NFLX | AZO | KR | ERIE | CHD | SMCI | DPZ | PGR | AXON | WMT | ED | NVDA | COST | RSG | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.24 | -0.14 | 0.32 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.22 | -0.06 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.70 |
| TPL | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.21 | -0.08 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -0.00 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| NEM | 0.24 | 0.21 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| CBOE | -0.14 | -0.08 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.15 | 0.16 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.20 | -0.19 | 0.04 | 0.27 | -0.09 | 0.12 | 0.29 | -0.21 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| TKO | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.04 | -0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| K | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.21 | -0.04 | 0.15 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0.30 | -0.08 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.28 | -0.16 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| ABBV | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.22 | -0.02 | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.28 | -0.02 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| KDP | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.26 | -0.00 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.32 | -0.08 | 0.16 | 0.20 | -0.01 | 0.18 | 0.32 | -0.15 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| LLY | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.15 | -0.03 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.52 |
| TTWO | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.22 | -0.04 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 0.12 | -0.08 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.10 | -0.08 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| TSLA | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.16 | -0.15 | 0.19 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 1.00 | -0.04 | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.14 | 0.03 | -0.05 | 0.33 | 0.16 | -0.09 | 0.29 | 0.16 | -0.14 | 0.35 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| TMUS | 0.10 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.27 | -0.09 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.02 | 0.25 | 0.35 | -0.06 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| NFLX | 0.45 | 0.08 | 0.10 | -0.02 | 0.28 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.15 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.11 | -0.05 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.18 | -0.14 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.41 |
| AZO | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.22 | -0.02 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.24 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| KR | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.09 | 0.23 | -0.00 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.23 | -0.03 | -0.08 | -0.14 | 0.31 | -0.01 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.30 | -0.15 | 0.20 | 0.23 | -0.07 | 0.32 | 0.34 | -0.21 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| ERIE | 0.21 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.26 | -0.02 | 0.18 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.29 | -0.04 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| CHD | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.27 | -0.05 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1.00 | -0.07 | 0.17 | 0.26 | -0.07 | 0.30 | 0.38 | -0.21 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| SMCI | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.12 | -0.19 | 0.14 | -0.08 | 0.03 | -0.08 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.33 | -0.09 | 0.28 | -0.02 | -0.15 | -0.02 | -0.07 | 1.00 | 0.13 | -0.10 | 0.31 | 0.05 | -0.17 | 0.54 | 0.14 | -0.06 | 0.41 |
| DPZ | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| PGR | 0.07 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.00 | -0.09 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.26 | -0.10 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.29 | -0.09 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| AXON | 0.51 | 0.24 | 0.14 | -0.09 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.10 | -0.07 | 0.14 | -0.07 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.10 | -0.12 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| WMT | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| ED | -0.06 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.29 | -0.02 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.03 | -0.08 | -0.14 | 0.35 | -0.14 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.38 | -0.17 | 0.11 | 0.29 | -0.12 | 0.21 | 1.00 | -0.29 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.08 |
| NVDA | 0.64 | 0.16 | 0.07 | -0.21 | 0.18 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.15 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.35 | -0.06 | 0.36 | -0.00 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.21 | 0.54 | 0.14 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 0.01 | -0.29 | 1.00 | 0.17 | -0.03 | 0.58 |
| COST | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.56 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| RSG | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.32 | -0.06 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.38 | -0.03 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.41 |
| Portfolio | 0.70 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.41 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 1.00 |