Bonds (BND and/or BNDX) are greatly favored over stocks by the optimizer
F
Fred13 декабря 23 г. | Posted in general
I have not seem many orange lines winning against original or benchmark no matter what I do. But the software seems to be doing something when all is stock or stock ETFs. However, Bonds and Stocks don't work well together. The moment I add BND or BNDX, the optimizer puts almost all of the weight in the bonds. I ran out of the free limit of calculations.
Maybe it's a message we all need to hear: invest in bond ETFs. Maybe I'm not using the tool correctly. Maybe there is something wrong with the tool.
I don't know.
-- Fred
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Bob Peticolas13 декабря 23 г.
Fred, I think your question relates to mine. I think this site is using a VERY low risk-free rate, and that is showing bonds with big excess returns. In fact, three month treasuries are yielding almost 5.5%, and that's what should be used as the risk-free rate. Instead, this site is showing three month treasuries with huge excess returns (returns in excess of the risk-free rate). That's my intuition for why you and I are getting such weird results.
DS
Dmitry Shevchenko13 декабря 23 г.
Yes, it might be the case for some optimization objectives. So adjusting the risk-free rate in the settings could help. However, models like HRP might overallocate to bonds due to their significantly lower risk profile compared to stocks. To address this, some opt for replacing bonds with leveraged bond ETFs. This approach evens out the risk profile of securities in the portfolio, making it more suitable for risk parity optimization. This strategy, though, heavily depends on the specific objectives and is certainly not the most common approach.
DS
Dmitry Shevchenko13 декабря 23 г.
Hi Fred, which optimization tool are you using? Is that the standard model or risk parity? Additionally, could you share the objectives and settings you select?
CW
Chris W21 июня 24 г.
There's nothing wrong I believe, the current efficient frontier tangency portfolio is far in the bond direction. Because (investment grade government) bonds add so little diversification; they mostly work by de-risking. So you have to apportion a lot of portfolio share to them to start getting decent risk contribution.
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