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2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Oct 13, 2020, corresponding to the inception date of QQQM

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-2.33%-3.84%-1.98%29.73%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1
0.29%-1.06%-2.68%-0.59%68.20%29.78%15.57%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
0.16%-2.00%-3.13%-1.30%31.84%18.10%10.66%13.75%
QQQM
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
0.12%-2.34%-4.64%-2.75%38.94%23.07%13.26%
MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
0.25%1.90%-1.69%-2.96%36.80%21.22%9.74%14.17%
AVUV
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
0.68%2.81%9.54%11.38%45.09%16.21%10.57%
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
0.32%5.04%12.84%21.56%116.82%33.13%19.27%28.54%
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
0.21%-7.91%-13.96%-11.51%86.45%37.93%17.21%25.67%
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
0.23%-8.71%-17.68%-16.96%112.37%47.33%13.60%35.51%
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares
0.94%10.15%25.51%37.98%506.33%44.58%5.09%41.63%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 14, 2020, 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1's average daily return is +0.09%, while the average monthly return is +1.78%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 3.3 years.

Historically, 60% of months were positive and 40% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +19.9%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -17.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 6 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +16.9%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -9.6%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20265.36%-1.72%-8.30%2.49%-2.68%
20253.46%-4.39%-11.27%-2.62%13.14%11.20%2.69%2.62%8.17%6.16%-2.35%-0.32%26.66%
20242.25%9.78%3.86%-7.74%9.30%7.03%-1.32%0.71%2.57%-2.65%8.31%-3.06%31.09%
202314.42%-2.52%9.46%-0.59%6.73%10.77%6.13%-3.79%-8.29%-5.07%17.13%10.75%65.47%
2022-12.32%-4.84%4.38%-17.87%-0.50%-14.29%18.22%-8.75%-15.95%9.58%9.95%-12.35%-41.61%
20210.84%3.68%3.33%7.60%-0.13%6.66%2.66%5.57%-7.64%11.73%2.42%3.41%46.66%

Benchmark Metrics

2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 has an annualized alpha of -1.39%, beta of 1.88, and R² of 0.93 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 14, 2020.

  • This portfolio captured 204.00% of S&P 500 Index gains and 154.45% of its losses — amplifying both gains and losses, but participating more in upside than downside.
  • Beta of 1.88 means this portfolio moves significantly more than S&P 500 Index — expect amplified gains in rallies and amplified losses in downturns.

Alpha
-1.39%
Beta
1.88
0.93
Upside Capture
204.00%
Downside Capture
154.45%

Expense Ratio

2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 has an expense ratio of 0.38%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 ranks 40 for risk / return — below 40% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.


2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Risk / Return Rank: 4040
Overall Rank
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Sharpe Ratio Rank: 3434
Sharpe Ratio Rank
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Sortino Ratio Rank: 3535
Sortino Ratio Rank
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Omega Ratio Rank: 3535
Omega Ratio Rank
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Calmar Ratio Rank: 5151
Calmar Ratio Rank
2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Martin Ratio Rank: 4444
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

1.07

0.88

+0.19

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

1.61

1.37

+0.25

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.24

1.21

+0.03

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

1.92

1.39

+0.54

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

7.46

6.43

+1.03


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
520.941.471.221.537.16
QQQM
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
591.051.631.231.957.03
MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
490.891.361.201.786.63
AVUV
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
621.171.731.241.907.48
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
912.012.621.374.4616.48
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
340.591.171.171.034.06
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
400.681.361.191.323.99
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares
891.902.451.354.7114.21

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 Sharpe ratios as of Apr 4, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 1.07
  • 5-Year: 0.48
  • All Time: 0.59

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.99 to 1.69, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 provided a 0.84% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio0.84%0.85%1.02%1.11%1.20%0.57%0.62%0.74%0.81%0.54%0.91%0.66%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
1.16%1.12%1.27%1.44%1.66%1.21%1.42%1.78%2.04%1.71%1.92%1.98%
QQQM
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
0.53%0.50%0.61%0.65%0.83%0.40%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MTUM
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
0.80%0.91%0.75%1.35%1.80%0.55%0.83%1.48%1.27%1.02%1.43%1.12%
AVUV
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
1.39%1.58%1.61%1.65%1.74%1.28%1.21%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
SOXX
iShares Semiconductor ETF
0.49%0.57%0.67%0.78%1.26%0.64%0.81%1.23%1.37%0.90%1.08%1.29%
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
1.01%0.84%0.93%0.74%0.52%0.06%0.11%0.41%0.63%0.00%0.12%0.34%
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
0.73%0.65%1.27%1.26%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.01%
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares
0.15%0.34%1.18%0.51%1.07%0.04%0.05%0.38%1.30%0.09%4.84%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 was 47.07%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 320 trading sessions.

The current 2026 TSP Rollover AI gen 1 drawdown is 10.11%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-47.07%Dec 28, 2021202Oct 14, 2022320Jan 25, 2024522
-34.03%Feb 20, 202534Apr 8, 202559Jul 3, 202593
-19.19%Jul 17, 202416Aug 7, 202465Nov 7, 202481
-16.97%Jan 29, 202642Mar 30, 2026
-13.18%Feb 16, 202115Mar 8, 202119Apr 5, 202134

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 8 assets, with an effective number of assets of 6.67, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkAVUVMTUMSOXLSOXXQQQMTQQQUPROVTIPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.710.850.790.790.920.931.000.990.96
AVUV0.711.000.610.560.560.540.540.720.760.67
MTUM0.850.611.000.750.750.820.820.850.850.87
SOXL0.790.560.751.001.000.860.860.790.800.91
SOXX0.790.560.751.001.000.860.860.790.800.91
QQQM0.920.540.820.860.861.001.000.920.910.97
TQQQ0.930.540.820.860.861.001.000.920.910.97
UPRO1.000.720.850.790.790.920.921.000.990.96
VTI0.990.760.850.800.800.910.910.991.000.96
Portfolio0.960.670.870.910.910.970.970.960.961.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Oct 14, 2020