UBT vs. TMV
UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UBT returned -9.22%/yr vs 1.08%/yr for TMV. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. UBT charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
UBT vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
Loading charts...
Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UBT achieves a -4.99% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 9.48% return. Over the past 10 years, UBT has underperformed TMV with an annualized return of -9.22%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively higher 1.08% annualized return.
UBT
- 1D
- 0.39%
- 1M
- -3.02%
- 6M
- -6.32%
- YTD
- -4.99%
- 1Y
- 0.10%
- 3Y*
- -10.50%
- 5Y*
- -20.31%
- 10Y*
- -9.22%
TMV
- 1D
- -0.35%
- 1M
- 5.74%
- 6M
- 11.49%
- YTD
- 9.48%
- 1Y
- 2.40%
- 3Y*
- 13.70%
- 5Y*
- 25.06%
- 10Y*
- 1.08%
UBT vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -4.99% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.48% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between UBT and TMV is -0.98, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.99 |
The correlation between UBT and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.99 to -0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
Compare stocks, funds, or ETFs
Search for stocks, ETFs, and funds for a quick comparison or use the comparison tool for more options.
Return for Risk
UBT vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
UBT
TMV
UBT vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.08 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.17 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.02 | 1.04 | -0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.11 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.01 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
Loading charts...
Drawdowns
UBT vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UBT drawdown since its inception was -78.90%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UBT and TMV.
Loading charts...
Drawdown Indicators
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -78.90% | -98.96% | +20.06% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.86% | -21.62% | +4.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -35.81% | -48.49% | +12.68% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -72.49% | -48.49% | -24.00% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -78.90% | -82.31% | +3.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -77.21% | -95.75% | +18.54% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.58% | -86.64% | +54.06% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.78% | 11.32% | -3.54% |
Volatility
UBT vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) is 5.20%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 7.69%. This indicates that UBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
Loading charts...
Volatility by Period
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 5.20% | 7.69% | -2.49% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.37% | 20.06% | -6.69% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.71% | 27.92% | -9.21% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.18% | 46.97% | -15.79% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 29.17% | 44.25% | -15.08% |
UBT vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
UBT has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
UBT vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
UBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.61%, more than TMV's 2.41% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.61% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UBT and TMV have a correlation of -0.98, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.69%) compared to UBT (5.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UBT dropped -78.90% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.08% vs -9.22% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.20%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.08% return vs -9.22%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.61%, compared with 2.41% for TMV.
UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UBT and 1.04% for TMV.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.09 vs 0.01), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
Find the right allocation for UBT and TMV
Add both to a portfolio and optimize allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
Open Portfolio Optimizer