UBT vs. TMV
UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UBT returned -8.42%/yr vs -0.46%/yr for TMV. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. UBT charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
UBT vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UBT achieves a -0.63% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 1.44% return. Over the past 10 years, UBT has underperformed TMV with an annualized return of -8.42%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively higher -0.46% annualized return.
UBT
- 1D
- 0.37%
- 1M
- 4.60%
- YTD
- -0.63%
- 6M
- -1.74%
- 1Y
- 2.30%
- 3Y*
- -10.34%
- 5Y*
- -18.46%
- 10Y*
- -8.42%
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
UBT vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -0.63% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between UBT and TMV is -0.98, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.99 |
The correlation between UBT and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.99 to -0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UBT vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
UBT
TMV
UBT vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.19 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.20 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 1.01 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.14 | -0.08 | +0.22 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.31 | -0.16 | +0.47 |
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Drawdowns
UBT vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UBT drawdown since its inception was -78.90%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UBT and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -78.90% | -98.96% | +20.06% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.86% | -21.62% | +4.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -36.47% | -48.49% | +12.02% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -72.49% | -48.49% | -24.00% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -78.90% | -82.31% | +3.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -76.16% | -96.06% | +19.90% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.43% | -86.61% | +54.18% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.44% | 11.09% | -3.65% |
Volatility
UBT vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) is 4.40%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 6.55%. This indicates that UBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.40% | 6.55% | -2.15% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.04% | 19.56% | -6.52% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.87% | 28.25% | -9.38% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.23% | 47.05% | -15.82% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 29.28% | 44.38% | -15.10% |
UBT vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
UBT has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
UBT vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
UBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.91%, more than TMV's 2.70% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.91% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UBT and TMV have a correlation of -0.98, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to UBT (4.40%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UBT dropped -78.90% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with -0.46% vs -8.42% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.40%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a -0.46% return vs -8.42%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.91%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UBT and 1.04% for TMV.
UBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.12 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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