UBT vs. TMF
UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UBT returned -8.46%/yr vs -16.82%/yr for TMF. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. UBT charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UBT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UBT achieves a -1.00% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.08% return. Over the past 10 years, UBT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -8.46%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.82% annualized return.
UBT
- 1D
- -1.27%
- 1M
- 4.22%
- YTD
- -1.00%
- 6M
- -1.75%
- 1Y
- 2.54%
- 3Y*
- -10.45%
- 5Y*
- -18.46%
- 10Y*
- -8.46%
TMF
- 1D
- -2.15%
- 1M
- 5.61%
- YTD
- -4.08%
- 6M
- -4.92%
- 1Y
- -1.09%
- 3Y*
- -20.90%
- 5Y*
- -31.19%
- 10Y*
- -16.82%
UBT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -1.00% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.08% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UBT and TMF is 0.98 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | 0.99 |
The correlation between UBT and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UBT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UBT
TMF
UBT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.17 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.19 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.02 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.15 | -0.04 | +0.19 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.34 | -0.09 | +0.43 |
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Drawdowns
UBT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UBT drawdown since its inception was -78.90%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UBT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -78.90% | -92.89% | +13.99% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.86% | -26.51% | +9.65% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -36.47% | -56.09% | +19.62% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -72.49% | -88.81% | +16.32% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -78.90% | -92.89% | +13.99% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -76.25% | -92.06% | +15.81% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.42% | -43.75% | +11.33% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.41% | 12.20% | -4.79% |
Volatility
UBT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) is 4.42%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 6.48%. This indicates that UBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UBT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.42% | 6.48% | -2.06% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.07% | 19.39% | -6.32% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.91% | 27.96% | -9.05% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.23% | 46.59% | -15.36% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 29.32% | 43.92% | -14.60% |
UBT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UBT has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UBT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.93%, less than TMF's 4.06% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.06% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.93% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.98, UBT and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (6.48%) compared to UBT (4.42%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UBT dropped -78.90% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UBT leads with -8.46% vs -16.82% for TMF. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.42%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UBT has performed better with a -8.46% return vs -16.82%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.06%, compared with 3.93% for UBT.
UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UBT and 1.01% for TMF.
UBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.14 vs -0.04), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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