TMV vs. TLT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.86%/yr vs -2.38%/yr for TLT. Their -1.00 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
TMV vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 17.52% return, which is significantly higher than TLT's -3.49% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed TLT with an annualized return of 1.86%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively lower -2.38% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.99%
- 1M
- 13.35%
- 6M
- 16.52%
- YTD
- 17.52%
- 1Y
- 19.49%
- 3Y*
- 13.00%
- 5Y*
- 27.59%
- 10Y*
- 1.86%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.05%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.66%
- 1M
- -3.81%
- 6M
- -3.46%
- YTD
- -3.49%
- 1Y
- -2.45%
- 3Y*
- -1.80%
- 5Y*
- -8.18%
- 10Y*
- -2.38%
- ALL TIME*
- 3.47%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.33B | $2.02B | $2.19B | |
| $29.38M | $22.37M | $25.43M |
TMV vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 17.52% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -3.49% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and TLT is -1.00, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -1.00 |
The correlation between TMV and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
TLT
TMV vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.64 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.01 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.11 | 0.99 | +0.12 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.75 | -0.14 | +0.89 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.56 | -0.30 | +1.86 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -48.35% | -50.61% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -19.32% | -7.74% | -11.58% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -14.79% | -33.70% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -43.70% | -4.79% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -48.35% | -33.96% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.44% | -42.36% | -53.08% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.66% | -13.99% | -72.67% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.32% | 3.57% | +5.75% |
Volatility
TMV vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.07% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.46%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.07% | 2.46% | +4.61% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.12% | 6.85% | +13.27% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.60% | 9.32% | +18.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.81% | 15.74% | +31.07% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.23% | 14.83% | +29.40% |
TMV vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.25%, less than TLT's 4.75% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.34% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.25% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and TLT have a correlation of -1.00, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.07%) compared to TLT (2.46%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.86% vs -2.38% for TLT. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.46%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.86% return vs -2.38%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.34%, compared with 2.25% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.15% for TLT.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.53 vs -0.11), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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