TMV vs. TLT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.46%/yr vs -1.74%/yr for TLT. At a correlation of -1.00, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
TMV vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 1.44% return, which is significantly higher than TLT's 0.77% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed TLT with an annualized return of -0.46%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively lower -1.74% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
TLT
- 1D
- 0.13%
- 1M
- 2.20%
- YTD
- 0.77%
- 6M
- 0.38%
- 1Y
- 3.87%
- 3Y*
- -1.89%
- 5Y*
- -6.59%
- 10Y*
- -1.74%
TMV vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.77% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and TLT is -1.00, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -1.00 |
The correlation between TMV and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
TLT
TMV vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.47 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.55 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.07 | -0.06 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.51 | -0.60 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.16 | 1.22 | -1.38 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -48.35% | -50.61% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -7.58% | -14.04% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -19.18% | -29.31% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -43.70% | -4.79% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -48.35% | -33.96% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.06% | -39.82% | -56.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -13.87% | -72.74% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.09% | 3.18% | +7.91% |
Volatility
TMV vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.55% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.20%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.55% | 2.20% | +4.35% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 6.62% | +12.94% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.25% | 9.48% | +18.77% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 15.82% | +31.23% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.38% | 14.88% | +29.50% |
TMV vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.70%, less than TLT's 4.54% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.54% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and TLT have a correlation of -1.00, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to TLT (2.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with -0.46% vs -1.74% for TLT. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.20%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a -0.46% return vs -1.74%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.54%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.41 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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