TMV vs. TLT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.11%/yr vs -2.17%/yr for TLT. At a correlation of -1.00, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
TMV vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.86% return, which is significantly higher than TLT's -1.48% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed TLT with an annualized return of 1.11%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively lower -2.17% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.93%
- 1M
- 6.11%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- YTD
- 9.86%
- 1Y
- 3.30%
- 3Y*
- 13.84%
- 5Y*
- 24.30%
- 10Y*
- 1.11%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.59%
- 1M
- -1.74%
- 6M
- -2.05%
- YTD
- -1.48%
- 1Y
- 2.34%
- 3Y*
- -2.07%
- 5Y*
- -7.47%
- 10Y*
- -2.17%
TMV vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.86% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -1.48% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and TLT is -1.00, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -1.00 |
The correlation between TMV and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
TLT
TMV vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.13 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.07 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.05 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.15 | 0.31 | -0.16 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.29 | 0.72 | -0.43 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -48.35% | -50.61% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -7.58% | -14.04% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -18.88% | -29.61% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -43.70% | -4.79% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -48.35% | -33.96% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.74% | -41.16% | -54.58% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.64% | -13.93% | -72.71% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.32% | 3.25% | +8.07% |
Volatility
TMV vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 8.70% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.92%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.70% | 2.92% | +5.78% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.16% | 6.83% | +13.33% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.98% | 9.40% | +18.58% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.00% | 15.80% | +31.20% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.25% | 14.84% | +29.41% |
TMV vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, less than TLT's 4.65% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.65% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and TLT have a correlation of -1.00, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (8.70%) compared to TLT (2.92%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.11% vs -2.17% for TLT. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.92%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.11% return vs -2.17%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.65%, compared with 2.41% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.25 vs 0.12), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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