UBT vs. KMLM
UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and KMLM (KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UBT is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while KMLM is a Systematic Trend fund tracking the KFA MLM Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 5 years, UBT returned -18.46%/yr vs 4.70%/yr for KMLM. At a correlation of -0.33, they often move in opposite directions. UBT charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.90%/yr for KMLM.
Performance
UBT vs. KMLM - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UBT achieves a -1.00% return, which is significantly lower than KMLM's 7.82% return.
UBT
- 1D
- -1.27%
- 1M
- 4.22%
- YTD
- -1.00%
- 6M
- -1.75%
- 1Y
- 2.54%
- 3Y*
- -10.45%
- 5Y*
- -18.46%
- 10Y*
- -8.46%
KMLM
- 1D
- 0.58%
- 1M
- -4.23%
- YTD
- 7.82%
- 6M
- 7.66%
- 1Y
- 15.91%
- 3Y*
- -0.44%
- 5Y*
- 4.70%
- 10Y*
- —
UBT vs. KMLM - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -1.00% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 0.45% |
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 7.82% | -2.98% | -1.69% | -5.66% | 30.61% | 7.04% | 5.74% |
Correlation
The correlation between UBT and KMLM is -0.21, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.26 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.33 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 2, 2020 | -0.33 |
The correlation between UBT and KMLM shifts across timeframes, from -0.33 (5 years) to -0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
UBT vs. KMLM — Risk / Return Rank
UBT
KMLM
UBT vs. KMLM - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) and KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UBT | KMLM | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.27 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.61 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.25 | -0.22 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.15 | 1.99 | -1.84 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.34 | 6.87 | -6.53 |
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Drawdowns
UBT vs. KMLM - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UBT drawdown since its inception was -78.90%, which is greater than KMLM's maximum drawdown of -27.47%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UBT and KMLM.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UBT | KMLM | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -78.90% | -27.47% | -51.43% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.86% | -8.04% | -8.82% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -36.47% | -22.28% | -14.19% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -72.49% | -27.47% | -45.02% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -78.90% | — | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -76.25% | -15.93% | -60.32% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.42% | -12.75% | -19.67% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.41% | 2.32% | +5.09% |
Volatility
UBT vs. KMLM - Volatility Comparison
ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) has a higher volatility of 4.42% compared to KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) at 2.95%. This indicates that UBT's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than KMLM based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UBT | KMLM | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.42% | 2.95% | +1.47% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.07% | 9.80% | +3.27% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.91% | 11.38% | +7.53% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.23% | 14.58% | +16.65% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 29.32% | 14.69% | +14.63% |
UBT vs. KMLM - Expense Ratio Comparison
UBT has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than KMLM's 0.90% expense ratio.
Dividends
UBT vs. KMLM - Dividend Comparison
UBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.93%, less than KMLM's 4.66% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 4.66% | 5.02% | 0.82% | 0.00% | 13.22% | 6.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.93% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UBT and KMLM have a correlation of -0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UBT has higher volatility (4.42%) compared to KMLM (2.95%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UBT dropped -78.90% vs KMLM's -27.47%.
On 5-year performance, KMLM leads with 4.70% vs -18.46% for UBT. On fees, KMLM is cheaper at 0.90% per year. On volatility, KMLM has been the lower-risk option at 2.95%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 5-year period, KMLM has performed better with a 4.70% return vs -18.46%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
KMLM is cheaper with a 0.90% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UBT.
KMLM has the higher dividend yield at 4.66%, compared with 3.93% for UBT.
UBT is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while KMLM is Systematic Trend. UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while KMLM tracks KFA MLM Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and KraneShares. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UBT and 0.90% for KMLM.
KMLM currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.41 vs 0.14), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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