TMV vs. TBT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.34%/yr vs 2.37%/yr for TBT. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.93%/yr for TBT.
Performance
TMV vs. TBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 2.64% return, which is significantly higher than TBT's 1.57% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed TBT with an annualized return of -0.34%, while TBT has yielded a comparatively higher 2.37% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 2.30%
- 1M
- -5.15%
- YTD
- 2.64%
- 6M
- 3.66%
- 1Y
- -1.53%
- 3Y*
- 13.35%
- 5Y*
- 20.55%
- 10Y*
- -0.34%
TBT
- 1D
- 1.47%
- 1M
- -3.76%
- YTD
- 1.57%
- 6M
- 2.39%
- 1Y
- -0.97%
- 3Y*
- 10.71%
- 5Y*
- 16.28%
- 10Y*
- 2.37%
TMV vs. TBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.64% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 1.57% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and TBT is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TMV and TBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. TBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
TBT
TMV vs. TBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.00 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.06 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.01 | +0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.01 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. TBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, roughly equal to the maximum TBT drawdown of -94.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and TBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -94.99% | -3.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -14.89% | -6.73% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -33.83% | -14.66% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -33.83% | -14.66% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -65.09% | -17.22% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.02% | -85.85% | -10.17% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -77.33% | -9.28% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.08% | 7.54% | +3.54% |
Volatility
TMV vs. TBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.54% compared to ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) at 4.56%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.54% | 4.56% | +1.98% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 13.51% | +6.05% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.28% | 19.22% | +9.06% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 31.32% | +15.73% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.45% | 28.80% | +15.65% |
TMV vs. TBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than TBT's 0.93% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. TBT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.67%, less than TBT's 2.94% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.94% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.67% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TMV and TBT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (6.54%) compared to TBT (4.56%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs TBT's -94.99%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 2.37% vs -0.34% for TMV. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.56%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 2.37% return vs -0.34%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBT has the higher dividend yield at 2.94%, compared with 2.67% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TBT is Inverse Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.93% for TBT.
TBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.05 vs -0.05), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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