TMV vs. TBT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.25%/yr vs 3.47%/yr for TBT. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.93%/yr for TBT.
Performance
TMV vs. TBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 7.79% return, which is significantly higher than TBT's 5.05% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed TBT with an annualized return of 1.25%, while TBT has yielded a comparatively higher 3.47% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 0.03%
- 1M
- 4.10%
- 6M
- 10.31%
- YTD
- 7.79%
- 1Y
- 1.35%
- 3Y*
- 11.24%
- 5Y*
- 23.65%
- 10Y*
- 1.25%
TBT
- 1D
- 0.03%
- 1M
- 2.79%
- 6M
- 7.01%
- YTD
- 5.05%
- 1Y
- 0.94%
- 3Y*
- 9.38%
- 5Y*
- 18.29%
- 10Y*
- 3.47%
TMV vs. TBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 7.79% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 5.05% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and TBT is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TMV and TBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. TBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
TBT
TMV vs. TBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.00 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.07 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.06 | 1.05 | +0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.27 | 0.26 | +0.01 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.52 | 0.51 | +0.01 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. TBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, roughly equal to the maximum TBT drawdown of -94.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and TBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -94.99% | -3.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -14.89% | -6.73% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -33.83% | -14.66% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -33.83% | -14.66% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -65.09% | -17.22% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.82% | -85.36% | -10.46% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.63% | -77.36% | -9.27% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.32% | 7.71% | +3.61% |
Volatility
TMV vs. TBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 8.53% compared to ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) at 5.69%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.53% | 5.69% | +2.84% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.13% | 13.86% | +6.27% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.20% | 19.13% | +9.07% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.98% | 31.28% | +15.70% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.29% | 28.69% | +15.60% |
TMV vs. TBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than TBT's 0.93% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. TBT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.45%, less than TBT's 2.67% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.67% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.45% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TMV and TBT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (8.53%) compared to TBT (5.69%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs TBT's -94.99%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 3.47% vs 1.25% for TMV. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.69%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 3.47% return vs 1.25%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBT has the higher dividend yield at 2.67%, compared with 2.45% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TBT is Inverse Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.93% for TBT.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.21 vs 0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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