TMV vs. SPY
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.34%/yr vs 15.70%/yr for SPY. At a 0.25 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
TMV vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 2.64% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 9.74% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -0.34%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.70% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 2.30%
- 1M
- -5.15%
- YTD
- 2.64%
- 6M
- 3.66%
- 1Y
- -1.53%
- 3Y*
- 13.35%
- 5Y*
- 20.55%
- 10Y*
- -0.34%
SPY
- 1D
- -0.31%
- 1M
- 0.09%
- YTD
- 9.74%
- 6M
- 9.27%
- 1Y
- 26.65%
- 3Y*
- 21.27%
- 5Y*
- 13.51%
- 10Y*
- 15.70%
TMV vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.64% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 9.74% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and SPY is -0.24, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.24 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.25 |
The correlation between TMV and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (1 year) to 0.25 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
SPY
TMV vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.21 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.79 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.39 | -0.38 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.07 | 3.01 | -3.08 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.14 | 13.54 | -13.67 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -55.19% | -43.77% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -8.88% | -12.74% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -18.76% | -29.73% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -24.50% | -23.99% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -33.72% | -48.59% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.02% | -1.75% | -94.27% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -9.04% | -77.57% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.08% | 1.97% | +9.11% |
Volatility
TMV vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.54% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 4.64%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.54% | 4.64% | +1.90% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 9.75% | +9.81% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.28% | 12.43% | +15.85% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 17.14% | +29.91% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.45% | 17.99% | +26.46% |
TMV vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.67%, more than SPY's 1.01% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.01% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.67% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and SPY have a correlation of -0.24, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.54%) compared to SPY (4.64%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.70% vs -0.34% for TMV. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, SPY has been the lower-risk option at 4.64%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.70% return vs -0.34%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.67%, compared with 1.01% for SPY.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.16 vs -0.05), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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