UBT vs. TLT
UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UBT is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UBT returned -9.36%/yr vs -2.22%/yr for TLT. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. UBT charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
UBT vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UBT achieves a -4.25% return, which is significantly lower than TLT's -0.89% return. Over the past 10 years, UBT has underperformed TLT with an annualized return of -9.36%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively higher -2.22% annualized return.
UBT
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- -2.27%
- 6M
- -5.90%
- YTD
- -4.25%
- 1Y
- 0.81%
- 3Y*
- -9.31%
- 5Y*
- -19.77%
- 10Y*
- -9.36%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.02%
- 1M
- -1.15%
- 6M
- -1.76%
- YTD
- -0.89%
- 1Y
- 2.95%
- 3Y*
- -1.36%
- 5Y*
- -7.32%
- 10Y*
- -2.22%
UBT vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -4.25% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.89% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between UBT and TLT is 0.98 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | 0.99 |
The correlation between UBT and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UBT vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
UBT
TLT
UBT vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UBT | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.27 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.32 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.03 | -0.04 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.12 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.26 | 0.47 | -0.73 |
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Drawdowns
UBT vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UBT drawdown since its inception was -78.90%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UBT and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UBT | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -78.90% | -48.35% | -30.55% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.86% | -7.58% | -9.28% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -35.81% | -18.88% | -16.93% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -72.49% | -43.70% | -28.79% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -78.90% | -48.35% | -30.55% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -77.03% | -40.81% | -36.22% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.56% | -13.92% | -18.64% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.71% | 3.25% | +4.46% |
Volatility
UBT vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) has a higher volatility of 5.85% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.88%. This indicates that UBT's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UBT | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 5.85% | 2.88% | +2.97% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.46% | 6.82% | +6.64% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.88% | 9.47% | +9.41% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.19% | 15.79% | +15.40% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 29.21% | 14.85% | +14.36% |
UBT vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
UBT has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
UBT vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
UBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.58%, less than TLT's 4.62% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.62% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.58% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.98, UBT and TLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
UBT has higher volatility (5.85%) compared to TLT (2.88%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UBT dropped -78.90% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TLT leads with -2.22% vs -9.36% for UBT. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.88%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TLT has performed better with a -2.22% return vs -9.36%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UBT.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.62%, compared with 3.58% for UBT.
UBT is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and iShares. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UBT and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.16 vs -0.11), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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