TMV vs. ^TNX
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while ^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.46%/yr vs 11.02%/yr for ^TNX. Their correlation of 0.89 suggests significant overlap in exposure.
Performance
TMV vs. ^TNX - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 1.44% return, which is significantly lower than ^TNX's 7.93% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed ^TNX with an annualized return of -0.46%, while ^TNX has yielded a comparatively higher 11.02% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
^TNX
- 1D
- 0.94%
- 1M
- -1.43%
- YTD
- 7.93%
- 6M
- 7.77%
- 1Y
- 4.00%
- 3Y*
- 6.31%
- 5Y*
- 24.75%
- 10Y*
- 11.02%
TMV vs. ^TNX - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 7.93% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and ^TNX is 0.88, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.88 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.88 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.89 |
The correlation between TMV and ^TNX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. ^TNX — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
^TNX
TMV vs. ^TNX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.33 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.37 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.05 | -0.04 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.34 | -0.42 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.16 | 0.61 | -0.78 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. ^TNX - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, roughly equal to the maximum ^TNX drawdown of -96.85%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and ^TNX.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -96.85% | -2.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -11.94% | -9.68% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -27.41% | -21.08% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -27.41% | -21.08% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -84.57% | +2.26% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.06% | -71.64% | -24.42% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -55.01% | -31.60% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.09% | 6.58% | +4.51% |
Volatility
TMV vs. ^TNX - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.55% compared to Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) at 3.57%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than ^TNX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.55% | 3.57% | +2.98% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 10.72% | +8.84% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.25% | 15.13% | +13.12% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 32.21% | +14.84% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.38% | 47.88% | -3.50% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and ^TNX have a correlation of 0.88, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to ^TNX (3.57%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs ^TNX's -96.85%.
^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.27 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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