TMV vs. UBT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%) while UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.08%/yr vs -9.22%/yr for UBT. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
TMV vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 9.48% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -4.99% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed UBT with an annualized return of 1.08%, while UBT has yielded a comparatively lower -9.22% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.35%
- 1M
- 5.74%
- 6M
- 11.49%
- YTD
- 9.48%
- 1Y
- 2.40%
- 3Y*
- 13.70%
- 5Y*
- 25.06%
- 10Y*
- 1.08%
UBT
- 1D
- 0.39%
- 1M
- -3.02%
- 6M
- -6.32%
- YTD
- -4.99%
- 1Y
- 0.10%
- 3Y*
- -10.50%
- 5Y*
- -20.31%
- 10Y*
- -9.22%
TMV vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.48% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -4.99% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and UBT is -0.98, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TMV and UBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.99 to -0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
UBT
TMV vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.08 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.17 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.02 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.11 | 0.01 | +0.11 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.21 | 0.01 | +0.20 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than UBT's maximum drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -78.90% | -20.06% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -16.86% | -4.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -35.81% | -12.68% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -72.49% | +24.00% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -78.90% | -3.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.75% | -77.21% | -18.54% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.64% | -32.58% | -54.06% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.32% | 7.78% | +3.54% |
Volatility
TMV vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.69% compared to ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) at 5.20%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.69% | 5.20% | +2.49% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.06% | 13.37% | +6.69% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.92% | 18.71% | +9.21% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.97% | 31.18% | +15.79% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.25% | 29.17% | +15.08% |
TMV vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.41%, less than UBT's 3.61% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.61% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and UBT have a correlation of -0.98, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.69%) compared to UBT (5.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.08% vs -9.22% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.20%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.08% return vs -9.22%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.61%, compared with 2.41% for TMV.
TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for UBT.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.09 vs 0.01), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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