TMV vs. UBT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%) while UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.46%/yr vs -8.42%/yr for UBT. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
TMV vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 1.44% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -0.63% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed UBT with an annualized return of -0.46%, while UBT has yielded a comparatively lower -8.42% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
UBT
- 1D
- 0.37%
- 1M
- 4.60%
- YTD
- -0.63%
- 6M
- -1.74%
- 1Y
- 2.30%
- 3Y*
- -10.34%
- 5Y*
- -18.46%
- 10Y*
- -8.42%
TMV vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -0.63% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and UBT is -0.98, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TMV and UBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.99 to -0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
UBT
TMV vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.19 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.20 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.03 | -0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.14 | -0.22 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.16 | 0.31 | -0.47 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than UBT's maximum drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -78.90% | -20.06% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -16.86% | -4.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -36.47% | -12.02% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -72.49% | +24.00% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -78.90% | -3.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.06% | -76.16% | -19.90% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -32.43% | -54.18% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.09% | 7.44% | +3.65% |
Volatility
TMV vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.55% compared to ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) at 4.40%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.55% | 4.40% | +2.15% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 13.04% | +6.52% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.25% | 18.87% | +9.38% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 31.23% | +15.82% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.38% | 29.28% | +15.10% |
TMV vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.70%, less than UBT's 3.91% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.91% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and UBT have a correlation of -0.98, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to UBT (4.40%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with -0.46% vs -8.42% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.40%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a -0.46% return vs -8.42%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.91%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for UBT.
UBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.12 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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