TMV vs. UBT
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%) while UBT tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (200% Daily). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.70%/yr vs -9.58%/yr for UBT. Their -0.99 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
TMV vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 16.38% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -9.14% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed UBT with an annualized return of 1.70%, while UBT has yielded a comparatively lower -9.58% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.98%
- 1M
- 12.24%
- 6M
- 14.16%
- YTD
- 16.38%
- 1Y
- 18.32%
- 3Y*
- 10.87%
- 5Y*
- 28.21%
- 10Y*
- 1.70%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.09%
UBT
- 1D
- 0.81%
- 1M
- -7.64%
- 6M
- -8.31%
- YTD
- -9.14%
- 1Y
- -9.25%
- 3Y*
- -9.00%
- 5Y*
- -21.58%
- 10Y*
- -9.58%
- ALL TIME*
- 0.30%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $31.46M | $23.47M | $25.72M | |
| $607.37K | $624.24K | $851.60K |
TMV vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 16.38% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -9.14% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and UBT is -0.98, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TMV and UBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.99 to -0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
UBT
TMV vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.18 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.72 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.13 | 0.93 | +0.20 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.95 | -0.51 | +1.46 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.97 | -1.08 | +3.05 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than UBT's maximum drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -78.90% | -20.06% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -19.32% | -18.25% | -1.07% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -31.18% | -17.31% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -72.49% | +24.00% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -78.90% | -3.41% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.48% | -78.21% | -17.27% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.67% | -32.73% | -53.94% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.30% | 8.58% | +0.72% |
Volatility
TMV vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.23% compared to ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) at 5.23%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.23% | 5.23% | +2.00% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.10% | 13.51% | +6.59% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.33% | 18.34% | +8.99% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.82% | 31.09% | +15.73% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.23% | 29.18% | +15.05% |
TMV vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.27%, less than UBT's 3.77% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.27% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.77% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and UBT have a correlation of -0.98, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.23%) compared to UBT (5.23%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.70% vs -9.58% for UBT. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.23%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.70% return vs -9.58%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UBT has the higher dividend yield at 3.77%, compared with 2.27% for TMV.
TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while UBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (200% Daily). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for UBT.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.67 vs -0.51), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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