TMF vs. VUG
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and VUG (Vanguard Growth ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VUG is a Large Cap Growth Equities fund tracking the CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.99%/yr vs 17.41%/yr for VUG. At a correlation of -0.20, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VUG.
Performance
TMF vs. VUG - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.04% return, which is significantly lower than VUG's 5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VUG with an annualized return of -17.99%, while VUG has yielded a comparatively higher 17.41% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -2.07%
- 1M
- -9.25%
- 6M
- -12.35%
- YTD
- -11.04%
- 1Y
- -4.28%
- 3Y*
- -21.59%
- 5Y*
- -33.52%
- 10Y*
- -17.99%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.34%
VUG
- 1D
- 0.07%
- 1M
- -1.79%
- 6M
- 5.78%
- YTD
- 5.18%
- 1Y
- 14.67%
- 3Y*
- 21.89%
- 5Y*
- 12.42%
- 10Y*
- 17.41%
- ALL TIME*
- 12.11%
TMF vs. VUG - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.04% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF | 5.18% | 19.40% | 32.69% | 46.83% | -33.16% | 27.35% | 40.25% | 37.03% | -3.32% | 27.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and VUG is 0.16, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.12 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.03 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.20 |
The correlation between TMF and VUG shifts across timeframes, from -0.20 (all time) to 0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. VUG — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
VUG
TMF vs. VUG - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | VUG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.01 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.16 | -0.16 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.16 | 0.89 | -1.05 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.32 | 2.92 | -3.24 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. VUG - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VUG's maximum drawdown of -50.68%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VUG.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | VUG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -50.68% | -42.21% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -16.53% | -9.98% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -53.47% | -22.85% | -30.62% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -35.61% | -53.20% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -35.61% | -57.28% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.64% | -5.39% | -87.25% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.97% | -7.08% | -36.89% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.22% | 5.04% | +8.18% |
Volatility
TMF vs. VUG - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.53% compared to Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) at 5.71%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VUG based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | VUG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.53% | 5.71% | +1.82% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.87% | 14.01% | +5.86% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 17.34% | +10.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.39% | 22.45% | +23.94% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 21.52% | +22.20% |
TMF vs. VUG - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than VUG's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. VUG - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.44%, more than VUG's 0.40% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.44% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF | 0.40% | 0.41% | 0.47% | 0.58% | 0.70% | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.95% | 1.32% | 1.14% | 1.39% | 1.30% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and VUG have a correlation of 0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.53%) compared to VUG (5.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VUG's -50.68%.
On 10-year performance, VUG leads with 17.41% vs -17.99% for TMF. On fees, VUG is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VUG has been the lower-risk option at 5.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VUG has performed better with a 17.41% return vs -17.99%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VUG is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.44%, compared with 0.40% for VUG.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VUG is Large Cap Growth Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VUG tracks CRSP US Large Cap Growth Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for VUG.
VUG currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.85 vs -0.16), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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