TMF vs. TQQQ
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TQQQ is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the NASDAQ-100 Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.63%/yr vs 42.76%/yr for TQQQ. At a correlation of -0.18, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for TQQQ.
Performance
TMF vs. TQQQ - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.69% return, which is significantly lower than TQQQ's 37.55% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TQQQ with an annualized return of -18.63%, while TQQQ has yielded a comparatively higher 42.76% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -3.18%
- 1M
- -1.75%
- 6M
- -8.82%
- YTD
- -8.69%
- 1Y
- -5.31%
- 3Y*
- -19.00%
- 5Y*
- -33.37%
- 10Y*
- -18.63%
TQQQ
- 1D
- -5.48%
- 1M
- -0.89%
- 6M
- 31.82%
- YTD
- 37.55%
- 1Y
- 75.34%
- 3Y*
- 55.34%
- 5Y*
- 19.01%
- 10Y*
- 42.76%
TMF vs. TQQQ - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.69% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ | 37.55% | 34.35% | 58.27% | 198.04% | -79.09% | 82.98% | 110.05% | 133.84% | -19.79% | 118.06% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TQQQ is 0.16, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.13 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.03 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 11, 2010 | -0.18 |
The correlation between TMF and TQQQ shifts across timeframes, from -0.18 (all time) to 0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TQQQ — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TQQQ
TMF vs. TQQQ - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TQQQ | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.57 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.95 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.24 | -0.25 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 2.05 | -2.25 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.42 | 6.36 | -6.79 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TQQQ - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than TQQQ's maximum drawdown of -81.66%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TQQQ.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TQQQ | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -81.66% | -11.23% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -36.97% | +10.46% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -58.04% | +2.90% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -81.66% | -7.15% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -81.66% | -11.23% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.44% | -17.00% | -75.44% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.86% | -18.48% | -25.38% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.54% | 11.88% | +0.66% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TQQQ - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 8.78%, while ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has a volatility of 29.90%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TQQQ based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TQQQ | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.78% | 29.90% | -21.12% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.05% | 45.30% | -25.25% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.14% | 54.77% | -26.63% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 67.67% | -21.08% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.78% | 66.37% | -22.59% |
TMF vs. TQQQ - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than TQQQ's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TQQQ - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.32%, more than TQQQ's 0.52% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.32% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ | 0.52% | 0.65% | 1.27% | 1.26% | 0.57% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and TQQQ have a correlation of 0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TQQQ has higher volatility (29.90%) compared to TMF (8.78%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs TQQQ's -81.66%.
On 10-year performance, TQQQ leads with 42.76% vs -18.63% for TMF. On fees, TQQQ is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.78%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TQQQ has performed better with a 42.76% return vs -18.63%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TQQQ is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.32%, compared with 0.52% for TQQQ.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TQQQ is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TQQQ tracks NASDAQ-100 Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for TQQQ.
TQQQ currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.38 vs -0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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