TMF vs. UPRO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UPRO is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.63%/yr vs 29.16%/yr for UPRO. At a correlation of -0.24, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.89%/yr for UPRO.
Performance
TMF vs. UPRO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.69% return, which is significantly lower than UPRO's 23.40% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UPRO with an annualized return of -18.63%, while UPRO has yielded a comparatively higher 29.16% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -3.18%
- 1M
- -1.75%
- 6M
- -8.82%
- YTD
- -8.69%
- 1Y
- -5.31%
- 3Y*
- -19.00%
- 5Y*
- -33.37%
- 10Y*
- -18.63%
UPRO
- 1D
- -1.52%
- 1M
- 3.63%
- 6M
- 18.40%
- YTD
- 23.40%
- 1Y
- 55.20%
- 3Y*
- 47.27%
- 5Y*
- 20.64%
- 10Y*
- 29.16%
TMF vs. UPRO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.69% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 23.40% | 31.88% | 63.57% | 68.53% | -56.84% | 98.64% | 10.09% | 102.30% | -25.11% | 71.37% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UPRO is 0.22, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.22 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 25, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and UPRO shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (all time) to 0.22 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UPRO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UPRO
TMF vs. UPRO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.67 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.06 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.26 | -0.27 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 2.07 | -2.27 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.42 | 8.22 | -8.64 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UPRO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UPRO's maximum drawdown of -76.82%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UPRO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -76.82% | -16.07% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -26.78% | +0.27% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -48.87% | -6.27% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -63.94% | -24.87% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -76.82% | -16.07% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.44% | -5.53% | -86.91% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.86% | -14.38% | -29.48% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.54% | 6.74% | +5.80% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UPRO - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 8.78%, while ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) has a volatility of 15.65%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UPRO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.78% | 15.65% | -6.87% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.05% | 29.87% | -9.82% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.14% | 37.51% | -9.37% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 50.68% | -4.09% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.78% | 53.72% | -9.94% |
TMF vs. UPRO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UPRO's 0.89% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UPRO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.32%, more than UPRO's 0.76% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.32% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.76% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UPRO have a correlation of 0.22, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UPRO has higher volatility (15.65%) compared to TMF (8.78%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UPRO's -76.82%.
On 10-year performance, UPRO leads with 29.16% vs -18.63% for TMF. On fees, UPRO is cheaper at 0.89% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.78%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UPRO has performed better with a 29.16% return vs -18.63%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UPRO is cheaper with a 0.89% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.32%, compared with 0.76% for UPRO.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UPRO is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UPRO tracks S&P 500. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.89% for UPRO.
UPRO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.48 vs -0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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