TMF vs. UPRO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UPRO (ProShares UltraPro S&P 500) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UPRO is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P 500. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.54%/yr vs 27.83%/yr for UPRO. Their -0.24 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.89%/yr for UPRO.
Performance
TMF vs. UPRO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.77% return, which is significantly lower than UPRO's 18.32% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UPRO with an annualized return of -18.54%, while UPRO has yielded a comparatively higher 27.83% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 1.70%
- 1M
- -11.62%
- 6M
- -14.41%
- YTD
- -11.77%
- 1Y
- -8.65%
- 3Y*
- -20.22%
- 5Y*
- -34.02%
- 10Y*
- -18.54%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.38%
UPRO
- 1D
- 0.07%
- 1M
- 3.24%
- 6M
- 13.92%
- YTD
- 18.32%
- 1Y
- 38.63%
- 3Y*
- 39.78%
- 5Y*
- 18.43%
- 10Y*
- 27.83%
- ALL TIME*
- 32.91%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $110.52M | $105.33M | $121.32M | |
| $265.95M | $284.16M | $366.91M |
TMF vs. UPRO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.77% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 18.32% | 31.88% | 63.57% | 68.53% | -56.84% | 98.64% | 10.09% | 102.30% | -25.11% | 71.37% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UPRO is 0.21, which is low. Their historical price movements had little consistent relationship.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | 0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | 0.09 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 25, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and UPRO shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (all time) to 0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UPRO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UPRO
TMF vs. UPRO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.34 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.79 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.97 | 1.19 | -0.22 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.33 | 1.45 | -1.78 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.63 | 5.60 | -6.24 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UPRO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UPRO's maximum drawdown of -76.82%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UPRO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -76.82% | -16.07% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -26.78% | +0.27% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.79% | -48.87% | -1.92% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -63.94% | -24.87% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -76.82% | -16.07% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.70% | -9.42% | -83.28% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.02% | -14.35% | -29.67% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.69% | 6.91% | +6.78% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UPRO - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 5.96%, while ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) has a volatility of 9.81%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UPRO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UPRO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 5.96% | 9.81% | -3.85% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.35% | 29.59% | -10.24% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.43% | 37.95% | -10.52% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.33% | 50.63% | -4.30% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.71% | 53.75% | -10.04% |
TMF vs. UPRO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UPRO's 0.89% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UPRO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.48%, more than UPRO's 0.79% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.48% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.79% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UPRO have a correlation of 0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UPRO has higher volatility (9.81%) compared to TMF (5.96%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UPRO's -76.82%.
On 10-year performance, UPRO leads with 27.83% vs -18.54% for TMF. On fees, UPRO is cheaper at 0.89% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 5.96%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UPRO has performed better with a 27.83% return vs -18.54%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UPRO is cheaper with a 0.89% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.48%, compared with 0.79% for UPRO.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UPRO is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UPRO tracks S&P 500. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.89% for UPRO.
UPRO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.02 vs -0.32), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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