TMF vs. TLT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.06%/yr vs -2.22%/yr for TLT. With a 1.00 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
TMF vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.94% return, which is significantly lower than TLT's -0.89% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TLT with an annualized return of -18.06%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively higher -2.22% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.03%
- 1M
- -4.85%
- 6M
- -10.90%
- YTD
- -8.94%
- 1Y
- -4.05%
- 3Y*
- -19.45%
- 5Y*
- -32.83%
- 10Y*
- -18.06%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.02%
- 1M
- -1.39%
- 6M
- -1.76%
- YTD
- -0.89%
- 1Y
- 2.95%
- 3Y*
- -1.36%
- 5Y*
- -7.32%
- 10Y*
- -2.22%
TMF vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.94% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.89% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TLT is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 1.00 |
The correlation between TMF and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 1.00 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TLT
TMF vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.45 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.54 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.97 | 1.03 | -0.06 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.31 | 0.20 | -0.51 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.64 | 0.47 | -1.11 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -48.35% | -44.54% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -7.58% | -18.93% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -18.88% | -36.26% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -43.70% | -45.11% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -48.35% | -44.54% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.46% | -40.81% | -51.65% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.90% | -13.92% | -29.98% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.78% | 3.25% | +9.53% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.37% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.88%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.37% | 2.88% | +5.49% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.92% | 6.82% | +13.10% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.83% | 9.47% | +18.36% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.53% | 15.79% | +30.74% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.76% | 14.85% | +28.91% |
TMF vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.34%, less than TLT's 4.62% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.62% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.34% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, TMF and TLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.37%) compared to TLT (2.88%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TLT leads with -2.22% vs -18.06% for TMF. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.88%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TLT has performed better with a -2.22% return vs -18.06%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.62%, compared with 4.34% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.16 vs -0.29), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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