TMF vs. TLT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.47%/yr vs -2.38%/yr for TLT. Their 1.00 correlation means they have historically moved very closely together. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
TMF vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -16.67% return, which is significantly lower than TLT's -3.49% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TLT with an annualized return of -18.47%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively higher -2.38% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -2.08%
- 1M
- -12.05%
- 6M
- -15.79%
- YTD
- -16.67%
- 1Y
- -18.44%
- 3Y*
- -20.63%
- 5Y*
- -34.74%
- 10Y*
- -18.47%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.68%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.66%
- 1M
- -3.81%
- 6M
- -3.46%
- YTD
- -3.49%
- 1Y
- -2.45%
- 3Y*
- -1.80%
- 5Y*
- -8.18%
- 10Y*
- -2.38%
- ALL TIME*
- 3.47%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.33B | $2.02B | $2.19B | |
| $161.82M | $130.43M | $127.82M |
TMF vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -16.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -3.49% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TLT is 1.00 - they have historically moved very closely together. At this level, their price movements offset little of one another.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | 1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 1.00 |
The correlation between TMF and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 1.00 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TLT
TMF vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.44 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.54 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.93 | 0.99 | -0.06 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.53 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.07 | -0.30 | -0.77 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -93.10%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.10% | -48.35% | -44.75% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -28.69% | -7.74% | -20.95% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.64% | -14.79% | -35.85% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -89.14% | -43.70% | -45.44% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.10% | -48.35% | -44.75% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -93.10% | -42.36% | -50.74% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.07% | -13.99% | -30.08% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 14.10% | 3.57% | +10.53% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.21% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.46%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.21% | 2.46% | +4.75% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.98% | 6.85% | +13.13% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.35% | 9.32% | +18.03% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.36% | 15.74% | +30.62% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.70% | 14.83% | +28.87% |
TMF vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.74%, which matches TLT's 4.75% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.34% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.74% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, TMF and TLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (7.21%) compared to TLT (2.46%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -93.10% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TLT leads with -2.38% vs -18.47% for TMF. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.46%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TLT has performed better with a -2.38% return vs -18.47%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.74%, compared with 4.34% for TLT.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.11 vs -0.55), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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