TMF vs. ^TNX
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while ^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.63%/yr vs 12.73%/yr for ^TNX. At a correlation of -0.89, they often move in opposite directions.
Performance
TMF vs. ^TNX - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.69% return, which is significantly lower than ^TNX's 8.79% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed ^TNX with an annualized return of -18.63%, while ^TNX has yielded a comparatively higher 12.73% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -3.18%
- 1M
- -1.75%
- 6M
- -8.82%
- YTD
- -8.69%
- 1Y
- -5.31%
- 3Y*
- -19.00%
- 5Y*
- -33.37%
- 10Y*
- -18.63%
^TNX
- 1D
- 0.98%
- 1M
- -0.15%
- 6M
- 8.38%
- YTD
- 8.79%
- 1Y
- 3.05%
- 3Y*
- 3.80%
- 5Y*
- 28.59%
- 10Y*
- 12.73%
TMF vs. ^TNX - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.69% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 8.79% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and ^TNX is -0.89, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.89 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.89 |
The correlation between TMF and ^TNX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. ^TNX — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
^TNX
TMF vs. ^TNX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.39 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.47 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.04 | -0.05 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 0.26 | -0.46 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.42 | 0.46 | -0.89 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. ^TNX - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum ^TNX drawdown of -96.85%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and ^TNX.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -96.85% | +3.96% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -11.94% | -14.57% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -27.41% | -27.73% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -27.41% | -61.40% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -84.57% | -8.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.44% | -71.41% | -21.03% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.86% | -55.02% | +11.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.54% | 6.64% | +5.90% |
Volatility
TMF vs. ^TNX - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.78% compared to Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) at 4.26%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than ^TNX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | ^TNX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.78% | 4.26% | +4.52% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.05% | 10.99% | +9.06% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.14% | 15.17% | +12.97% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 31.97% | +14.62% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.78% | 47.77% | -3.99% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and ^TNX have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.78%) compared to ^TNX (4.26%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs ^TNX's -96.85%.
^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.20 vs -0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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