TMF vs. ^TNX

Last updated Jul 28, 2026

TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while ^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.54%/yr vs 12.28%/yr for ^TNX. Their -0.89 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past.

Performance

TMF vs. ^TNX - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.77% return, which is significantly lower than ^TNX's 11.48% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed ^TNX with an annualized return of -18.54%, while ^TNX has yielded a comparatively higher 12.28% annualized return.

TMF

• 1D: 1.70%
• 1M: -11.62%
• 6M: -14.41%
• YTD: -11.77%
• 1Y: -8.65%
• 3Y*: -20.22%
• 5Y*: -34.02%
• 10Y*: -18.54%
• ALL TIME*: -6.38%

^TNX

• 1D: -1.32%
• 1M: 6.15%
• 6M: 10.16%
• YTD: 11.48%
• 1Y: 5.81%
• 3Y*: 5.35%
• 5Y*: 29.77%
• 10Y*: 12.28%
• ALL TIME*: -0.93%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Liquidity Comparison

Position	Avg. Volume Value (2W)	Avg. Volume Value (1M)	Avg. Volume Value (3M)
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	$110.52M	$105.33M	$121.32M

TMF vs. ^TNX - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-11.77%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index	11.48%	-8.97%	18.29%	-0.34%	156.55%	64.89%	-52.21%	-28.56%	11.68%	-1.68%

Correlation

The correlation between TMF and ^TNX is -0.89, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most.	-0.89
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history.	-0.91
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period.	-0.89
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions.	-0.87
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	-0.89

The correlation between TMF and ^TNX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

TMF vs. ^TNX — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

^TNX

^TNX Risk / Return Rank: 18
^TNX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 19
^TNX Sortino Ratio Rank: 15
^TNX Omega Ratio Rank: 16
^TNX Calmar Ratio Rank: 21
^TNX Martin Ratio Rank: 18

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMF vs. ^TNX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TMF	^TNX	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.32	0.39	-0.71
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-0.28	0.65	-0.92
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.97	1.07	-0.11
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.33	0.55	-0.88
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-0.63	1.06	-1.69

TMF vs. ^TNX - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMF Sharpe Ratio is -0.32, which is lower than the ^TNX Sharpe Ratio of 0.39. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMF and ^TNX, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TMF vs. ^TNX - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum ^TNX drawdown of -96.85%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and ^TNX.

Drawdown Indicators

	TMF	^TNX	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-92.89%	-96.85%	+3.96%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-26.51%	-10.57%	-15.94%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-50.79%	-27.41%	-23.38%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-88.81%	-27.41%	-61.40%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-92.89%	-84.57%	-8.32%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-92.70%	-70.70%	-22.00%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-44.02%	-55.03%	+11.01%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	13.69%	5.53%	+8.16%

Volatility

TMF vs. ^TNX - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 5.96% compared to Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) at 3.56%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than ^TNX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TMF	^TNX	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	5.96%	3.56%	+2.40%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	19.35%	10.95%	+8.40%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	27.43%	15.02%	+12.41%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	46.33%	31.28%	+15.05%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	43.71%	47.66%	-3.95%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TMF and ^TNX in my portfolio?

TMF and ^TNX have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TMF or ^TNX?

TMF has higher volatility (5.96%) compared to ^TNX (3.56%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs ^TNX's -96.85%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.39 vs -0.32), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.