TMF vs. VOO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VOO is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.99%/yr vs 14.98%/yr for VOO. At a correlation of -0.22, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VOO.
Performance
TMF vs. VOO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.04% return, which is significantly lower than VOO's 9.44% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VOO with an annualized return of -17.99%, while VOO has yielded a comparatively higher 14.98% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -2.07%
- 1M
- -9.25%
- 6M
- -12.35%
- YTD
- -11.04%
- 1Y
- -4.28%
- 3Y*
- -21.59%
- 5Y*
- -33.52%
- 10Y*
- -17.99%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.34%
VOO
- 1D
- -0.14%
- 1M
- -0.57%
- 6M
- 7.90%
- YTD
- 9.44%
- 1Y
- 19.65%
- 3Y*
- 19.52%
- 5Y*
- 12.88%
- 10Y*
- 14.98%
- ALL TIME*
- 14.77%
TMF vs. VOO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.04% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 9.44% | 17.82% | 24.98% | 26.32% | -18.17% | 28.79% | 18.32% | 31.37% | -4.50% | 21.77% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and VOO is 0.21, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.09 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 9, 2010 | -0.22 |
The correlation between TMF and VOO shifts across timeframes, from -0.22 (all time) to 0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. VOO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
VOO
TMF vs. VOO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.73 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.22 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.28 | -0.29 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.16 | 2.22 | -2.38 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.32 | 9.63 | -9.95 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. VOO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VOO's maximum drawdown of -33.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VOO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -33.99% | -58.90% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -8.90% | -17.61% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -53.47% | -18.69% | -34.78% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -24.52% | -64.29% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -33.99% | -58.90% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.64% | -2.01% | -90.63% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.97% | -3.67% | -40.30% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.22% | 2.04% | +11.18% |
Volatility
TMF vs. VOO - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.53% compared to Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at 3.36%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VOO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.53% | 3.36% | +4.17% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.87% | 10.02% | +9.85% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 12.58% | +15.04% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.39% | 16.91% | +29.48% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 18.00% | +25.72% |
TMF vs. VOO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than VOO's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. VOO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.44%, more than VOO's 1.08% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.44% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 1.08% | 1.13% | 1.24% | 1.46% | 1.69% | 1.25% | 1.54% | 1.88% | 2.06% | 1.78% | 2.02% | 2.10% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and VOO have a correlation of 0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.53%) compared to VOO (3.36%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VOO's -33.99%.
On 10-year performance, VOO leads with 14.98% vs -17.99% for TMF. On fees, VOO is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VOO has been the lower-risk option at 3.36%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VOO has performed better with a 14.98% return vs -17.99%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VOO is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.44%, compared with 1.08% for VOO.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VOO is S&P 500. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VOO tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for VOO.
VOO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.57 vs -0.16), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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