TMF vs. UBT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%) while UBT tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs -9.26%/yr for UBT. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
TMF vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than UBT's -5.35% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UBT with an annualized return of -17.90%, while UBT has yielded a comparatively higher -9.26% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
UBT
- 1D
- -1.15%
- 1M
- -3.39%
- 6M
- -6.26%
- YTD
- -5.35%
- 1Y
- -0.34%
- 3Y*
- -10.62%
- 5Y*
- -20.04%
- 10Y*
- -9.26%
TMF vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -5.35% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 31.87% | 24.46% | -6.54% | 16.12% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UBT is 0.98 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.98 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 21, 2010 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TMF and UBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UBT
TMF vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.19 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.22 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.01 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UBT's maximum drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -78.90% | -13.99% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -16.86% | -9.65% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -35.81% | -19.33% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -72.49% | -16.32% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -78.90% | -13.99% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -77.30% | -15.30% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -32.57% | -11.34% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 7.73% | +5.09% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) at 5.91%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 5.91% | +2.60% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 13.46% | +6.48% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 18.75% | +8.87% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 31.20% | +15.34% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 29.18% | +14.54% |
TMF vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, more than UBT's 3.62% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.62% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.98, TMF and UBT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to UBT (5.91%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 10-year performance, UBT leads with -9.26% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, UBT is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.91%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UBT has performed better with a -9.26% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UBT is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 3.62% for UBT.
TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UBT tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for UBT.
UBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.02 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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