HODL vs. MSTZ

Last updated Jul 14, 2026

HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) and MSTZ (T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - HODL is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while MSTZ is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by REX. HODL is passively managed, while MSTZ is actively managed. Over the past year, HODL returned -47.40% vs 282.56% for MSTZ. At a correlation of -0.78, they often move in opposite directions. HODL charges 0.25%/yr vs 1.05%/yr for MSTZ.

Performance

HODL vs. MSTZ - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, HODL achieves a -28.87% return, which is significantly lower than MSTZ's -23.27% return.

HODL

• 1D: -2.71%
• 1M: -2.11%
• 6M: -31.95%
• YTD: -28.87%
• 1Y: -47.40%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

MSTZ

• 1D: 5.07%
• 1M: 46.38%
• 6M: -9.68%
• YTD: -23.27%
• 1Y: 282.56%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HODL vs. MSTZ - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	-28.87%	-6.42%	55.89%
MSTZ T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF	-23.27%	-38.95%	-94.43%

Correlation

The correlation between HODL and MSTZ is -0.84, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.84
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 18, 2024	-0.78

The correlation between HODL and MSTZ has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.84 to -0.78 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

HODL vs. MSTZ — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HODL

HODL Risk / Return Rank: 1
HODL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Sortino Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Omega Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Calmar Ratio Rank: 1
HODL Martin Ratio Rank: 1

MSTZ

MSTZ Risk / Return Rank: 68
MSTZ Sharpe Ratio Rank: 76
MSTZ Sortino Ratio Rank: 67
MSTZ Omega Ratio Rank: 68
MSTZ Calmar Ratio Rank: 80
MSTZ Martin Ratio Rank: 49

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HODL vs. MSTZ - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	HODL	MSTZ	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.08	1.92	-3.00
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.65	2.45	-4.11
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.82	1.32	-0.50
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.89	3.35	-4.25
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.45	6.53	-7.98

HODL vs. MSTZ - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HODL Sharpe Ratio is -1.08, which is lower than the MSTZ Sharpe Ratio of 1.92. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HODL and MSTZ, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

HODL vs. MSTZ - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -53.20%, smaller than the maximum MSTZ drawdown of -99.38%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and MSTZ.

Drawdown Indicators

	HODL	MSTZ	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-53.20%	-99.38%	+46.18%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-53.20%	-84.89%	+31.69%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-50.44%	-97.39%	+46.95%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-17.49%	-94.53%	+77.04%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	32.62%	43.51%	-10.89%

Volatility

HODL vs. MSTZ - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) is 11.45%, while T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTZ) has a volatility of 56.56%. This indicates that HODL experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than MSTZ based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HODL	MSTZ	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	11.45%	56.56%	-45.11%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.72%	135.11%	-100.39%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.22%	148.53%	-104.31%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	49.65%	171.02%	-121.37%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	49.65%	171.02%	-121.37%

HODL vs. MSTZ - Expense Ratio Comparison

HODL has a 0.25% expense ratio, which is lower than MSTZ's 1.05% expense ratio.

Dividends

HODL vs. MSTZ - Dividend Comparison

Neither HODL nor MSTZ has paid dividends to shareholders.

Tickers have no history of dividend payments

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HODL and MSTZ in my portfolio?

HODL and MSTZ have a correlation of -0.84, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, HODL or MSTZ?

MSTZ has higher volatility (56.56%) compared to HODL (11.45%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -53.20% vs MSTZ's -99.38%.

Which ETF is better, HODL or MSTZ?

On 1-year performance, MSTZ leads with 282.56% vs -47.40% for HODL. On fees, HODL is cheaper at 0.25% per year. On volatility, HODL has been the lower-risk option at 11.45%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, HODL or MSTZ?

Over the 1-year period, MSTZ has performed better with a 282.56% return vs -47.40%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, HODL or MSTZ?

HODL is cheaper with a 0.25% expense ratio, compared with 1.05% for MSTZ.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, HODL or MSTZ?

HODL and MSTZ have nearly identical dividend yields, around 0.00%.

What is the main difference between HODL and MSTZ?

HODL is categorized as Cryptocurrency, while MSTZ is Inverse Equities. They also come from different issuers: VanEck and REX. Their fees differ too: 0.25% for HODL and 1.05% for MSTZ.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

MSTZ currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.92 vs -1.08), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.