HODL vs. BTC-USD
HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) is Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past year, HODL returned -44.45% vs -44.56% for BTC-USD. Their 0.72 correlation means they have sometimes moved together and sometimes differently.
Performance
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with HODL having a -28.10% return and BTC-USD slightly lower at -28.25%.
HODL
- 1D
- -2.89%
- 1M
- 2.36%
- 6M
- -24.98%
- YTD
- -28.10%
- 1Y
- -44.45%
- 3Y*
- —
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
- ALL TIME*
- 10.44%
BTC-USD
- 1D
- -0.07%
- 1M
- 2.11%
- 6M
- -20.17%
- YTD
- -28.25%
- 1Y
- -44.56%
- 3Y*
- 29.12%
- 5Y*
- 9.91%
- 10Y*
- 59.93%
- ALL TIME*
- 87.72%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | $1567.39T | $1617.70T | $2123.65T |
| $17.01M | $17.34M | $23.05M |
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust | -28.10% | -6.42% | 91.50% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -28.25% | -6.27% | 100.05% |
Correlation
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD is 0.72, which is moderate. They have sometimes moved together and sometimes differently, sharing some price drivers without tracking each other closely.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 0.72 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2024 | 0.72 |
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.72 to 0.72 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
HODL vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank
HODL
BTC-USD
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.01 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.05 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.83 | 0.85 | -0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.87 | -0.84 | -0.03 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.34 | -1.29 | -0.04 |
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Drawdowns
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -53.20%, smaller than the maximum BTC-USD drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and BTC-USD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -53.20% | -85.30% | +32.10% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -53.20% | -53.08% | -0.12% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | — | -53.08% | — |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -76.67% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -83.80% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -49.90% | -49.66% | -0.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -18.17% | -42.72% | +24.55% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 34.56% | 24.84% | +9.72% |
Volatility
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) has a higher volatility of 9.14% compared to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) at 8.58%. This indicates that HODL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than BTC-USD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 9.14% | 8.58% | +0.56% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 33.71% | 33.78% | -0.07% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 44.31% | 35.90% | +8.41% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 49.28% | 43.65% | +5.63% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 49.28% | 56.25% | -6.97% |
Frequently Asked Questions
HODL and BTC-USD have a correlation of 0.72, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
HODL has higher volatility (9.14%) compared to BTC-USD (8.58%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -53.20% vs BTC-USD's -85.30%.
BTC-USD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-1.03 vs -1.05), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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