HODL vs. BTC-USD
HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) is Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past year, HODL returned -39.41% vs -40.01% for BTC-USD. A 0.72 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined.
Performance
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison
Loading charts...
Returns By Period
The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with HODL having a -28.02% return and BTC-USD slightly lower at -28.06%.
HODL
- 1D
- -1.93%
- 1M
- -18.01%
- YTD
- -28.02%
- 6M
- -25.65%
- 1Y
- -39.41%
- 3Y*
- —
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
BTC-USD
- 1D
- -2.33%
- 1M
- -18.01%
- YTD
- -28.06%
- 6M
- -26.35%
- 1Y
- -40.01%
- 3Y*
- 32.86%
- 5Y*
- 12.15%
- 10Y*
- 56.74%
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust | -28.02% | -6.42% | 91.50% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -28.06% | -6.27% | 100.05% |
Correlation
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD is 0.71, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.71 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2024 | 0.72 |
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.71 to 0.72 - a consistent structural relationship.
Compare stocks, funds, or ETFs
Search for stocks, ETFs, and funds for a quick comparison or use the comparison tool for more options.
Return for Risk
HODL vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank
HODL
BTC-USD
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.03 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.06 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.86 | 0.87 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.76 | -0.78 | +0.02 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.31 | -1.34 | +0.03 |
Loading charts...
Drawdowns
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -51.96%, smaller than the maximum BTC-USD drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and BTC-USD.
Loading charts...
Drawdown Indicators
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -51.96% | -85.30% | +33.34% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -51.96% | -51.21% | -0.75% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | — | -51.21% | — |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -76.67% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -83.80% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -49.85% | -49.53% | -0.32% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -16.67% | -42.41% | +25.74% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 30.16% | 31.06% | -0.90% |
Volatility
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) have volatilities of 12.64% and 12.34%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
Loading charts...
Volatility by Period
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 12.64% | 12.34% | +0.30% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 34.42% | 34.61% | -0.19% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 43.94% | 35.65% | +8.29% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 49.91% | 44.48% | +5.43% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 49.91% | 56.55% | -6.64% |
Frequently Asked Questions
HODL and BTC-USD have a correlation of 0.71, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
HODL has higher volatility (12.64%) compared to BTC-USD (12.34%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -51.96% vs BTC-USD's -85.30%.
HODL currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.90 vs -0.93), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
Find the right allocation for HODL and BTC-USD
Add both to a portfolio and optimize allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
Open Portfolio Optimizer