HODL vs. BTC-USD
HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) is Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past year, HODL returned -43.51% vs -43.34% for BTC-USD. A 0.72 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined.
Performance
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with HODL having a -27.70% return and BTC-USD slightly lower at -27.93%.
HODL
- 1D
- 1.65%
- 1M
- 1.94%
- 6M
- -30.40%
- YTD
- -27.70%
- 1Y
- -43.51%
- 3Y*
- —
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
BTC-USD
- 1D
- 1.32%
- 1M
- 2.22%
- 6M
- -30.73%
- YTD
- -27.93%
- 1Y
- -43.34%
- 3Y*
- 27.51%
- 5Y*
- 13.47%
- 10Y*
- 57.99%
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust | -27.70% | -6.42% | 91.50% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -27.93% | -6.27% | 100.05% |
Correlation
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD is 0.72, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.72 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2024 | 0.72 |
The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.72 to 0.72 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
HODL vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank
HODL
BTC-USD
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.02 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.03 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.84 | 0.85 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.82 | -0.82 | 0.00 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.35 | -1.34 | 0.00 |
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Drawdowns
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -53.20%, smaller than the maximum BTC-USD drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and BTC-USD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -53.20% | -85.30% | +32.10% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -53.20% | -53.08% | -0.12% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | — | -53.08% | — |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -76.67% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -83.80% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -49.62% | -49.44% | -0.18% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -17.39% | -42.53% | +25.14% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 32.32% | 31.20% | +1.12% |
Volatility
HODL vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) has a higher volatility of 11.25% compared to Bitcoin (BTC-USD) at 9.25%. This indicates that HODL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than BTC-USD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| HODL | BTC-USD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 11.25% | 9.25% | +2.00% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 34.64% | 34.87% | -0.23% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 44.39% | 35.75% | +8.64% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 49.69% | 43.96% | +5.73% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 49.69% | 56.32% | -6.63% |
Frequently Asked Questions
HODL and BTC-USD have a correlation of 0.72, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
HODL has higher volatility (11.25%) compared to BTC-USD (9.25%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -53.20% vs BTC-USD's -85.30%.
HODL currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.99 vs -1.01), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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