HODL vs. BTC-USD

Last updated Apr 8, 2026

HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) is Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while BTC-USD (Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency. Over the past year, HODL returned -11.64% vs -9.36% for BTC-USD. A 0.72 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined.

Performance

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, HODL achieves a -21.11% return, which is significantly lower than BTC-USD's -18.02% return.

HODL

• 1D: -1.09%
• 1M: 1.25%
• YTD: -21.11%
• 6M: -43.30%
• 1Y: -11.64%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

BTC-USD

• 1D: 4.18%
• 1M: 8.73%
• YTD: -18.02%
• 6M: -40.91%
• 1Y: -9.36%
• 3Y*: 36.90%
• 5Y*: 4.31%
• 10Y*: 67.22%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	-21.11%	-6.42%	99.75%
BTC-USD Bitcoin	-18.02%	-6.27%	101.44%

Correlation

The correlation between HODL and BTC-USD is 0.72, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined. Holding both can reduce overall portfolio volatility compared to holding either one alone.

Return for Risk

HODL vs. BTC-USD — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HODL

HODL Risk / Return Rank: 6
HODL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 6
HODL Sortino Ratio Rank: 7
HODL Omega Ratio Rank: 7
HODL Calmar Ratio Rank: 5
HODL Martin Ratio Rank: 5

BTC-USD

BTC-USD Risk / Return Rank: 52
BTC-USD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 71
BTC-USD Sortino Ratio Rank: 62
BTC-USD Omega Ratio Rank: 62
BTC-USD Calmar Ratio Rank: 55
BTC-USD Martin Ratio Rank: 7

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	HODL	BTC-USD	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	-0.27	-0.21	-0.05
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	-0.08	-0.01	-0.08
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.99	1.00	-0.01
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.32	-1.03	+0.71
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	-0.67	-1.80	+1.14
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HODL Sharpe Ratio is -0.27, which is comparable to the BTC-USD Sharpe Ratio of -0.21. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HODL and BTC-USD, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	HODL	BTC-USD	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.27	-0.21	-0.05
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	—	0.08	—
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	—	0.98	—
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.38	1.21	-0.83

Drawdowns

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -49.25%, smaller than the maximum BTC-USD drawdown of -85.30%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and BTC-USD.

Drawdown Indicators

	HODL	BTC-USD	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-49.25%	-85.30%	+36.05%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-49.25%	-49.65%	+0.40%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-76.67%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-83.80%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-45.03%	-42.49%	-2.54%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-14.31%	-42.03%	+27.72%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	23.70%	28.46%	-4.76%

Volatility

HODL vs. BTC-USD - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) is 10.58%, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has a volatility of 11.87%. This indicates that HODL experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than BTC-USD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HODL	BTC-USD	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	10.58%	11.87%	-1.29%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	36.68%	36.18%	+0.50%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.80%	36.46%	+8.34%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	50.85%	46.89%	+3.96%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	50.85%	56.72%	-5.87%