UST vs. TMV
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UST tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index while TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.53%/yr vs 1.70%/yr for TMV. Their -0.90 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
UST vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -4.75% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 16.38% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed TMV with an annualized return of -2.53%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively higher 1.70% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- 0.56%
- 1M
- -2.55%
- 6M
- -3.81%
- YTD
- -4.75%
- 1Y
- -2.66%
- 3Y*
- 0.46%
- 5Y*
- -8.21%
- 10Y*
- -2.53%
- ALL TIME*
- 2.37%
TMV
- 1D
- -0.98%
- 1M
- 12.24%
- 6M
- 14.16%
- YTD
- 16.38%
- 1Y
- 18.32%
- 3Y*
- 10.87%
- 5Y*
- 28.21%
- 10Y*
- 1.70%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.09%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $31.46M | $23.47M | $25.72M | |
| $493.89K | $437.03K | $327.72K |
UST vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -4.75% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 16.38% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and TMV is -0.89, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | -0.90 |
The correlation between UST and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.90 to -0.89 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
UST
TMV
UST vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.97 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.47 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.96 | 1.13 | -0.17 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.30 | 0.95 | -1.25 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.66 | 1.97 | -2.63 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -98.96% | +50.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.86% | -19.32% | +10.46% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -14.85% | -48.49% | +33.64% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.53% | -48.49% | +4.96% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -82.31% | +34.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -39.52% | -95.48% | +55.96% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.35% | -86.67% | +71.32% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 4.07% | 9.30% | -5.23% |
Volatility
UST vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 2.65%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 7.23%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.65% | 7.23% | -4.58% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 7.24% | 20.10% | -12.86% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.01% | 27.33% | -18.32% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.45% | 46.82% | -31.37% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.15% | 44.23% | -31.08% |
UST vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.63%, more than TMV's 2.27% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.27% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.63% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UST and TMV have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.23%) compared to UST (2.65%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.70% vs -2.53% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.65%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.70% return vs -2.53%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.63%, compared with 2.27% for TMV.
UST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index, while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 1.04% for TMV.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.67 vs -0.30), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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