UST vs. TMV
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.13%/yr vs -0.80%/yr for TMV. At a correlation of -0.90, they often move in opposite directions. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
UST vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.88% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 4.73% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed TMV with an annualized return of -2.13%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively higher -0.80% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- -0.56%
- 1M
- -0.51%
- YTD
- -2.88%
- 6M
- -4.24%
- 1Y
- 3.81%
- 3Y*
- -0.51%
- 5Y*
- -6.75%
- 10Y*
- -2.13%
TMV
- 1D
- 1.13%
- 1M
- -1.68%
- YTD
- 4.73%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- 1Y
- -4.33%
- 3Y*
- 12.83%
- 5Y*
- 19.12%
- 10Y*
- -0.80%
UST vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.88% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 4.73% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and TMV is -0.91, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 3, 2010 | -0.90 |
The correlation between UST and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
UST
TMV
UST vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.55 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.65 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.07 | 1.00 | +0.07 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.44 | -0.20 | +0.64 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.26 | -0.40 | +1.66 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.40 | -0.15 | +0.55 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.44 | 0.41 | -0.85 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | 0.19 | -0.33 | +0.52 |
Drawdowns
UST vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -98.96% | +50.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.75% | -21.62% | +12.87% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.87% | -48.49% | +31.62% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.97% | -48.49% | +4.52% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -82.31% | +34.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -38.33% | -95.94% | +57.61% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.13% | -86.60% | +71.47% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.03% | 11.13% | -8.10% |
Volatility
UST vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 3.10%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 8.15%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.10% | 8.15% | -5.05% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.58% | 19.18% | -12.60% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.50% | 29.12% | -19.62% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.47% | 47.21% | -31.74% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.18% | 44.44% | -31.26% |
UST vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.49%, more than TMV's 2.62% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.62% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.49% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
UST and TMV have a correlation of -0.91, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (8.15%) compared to UST (3.10%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with -0.80% vs -2.13% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.10%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a -0.80% return vs -2.13%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.49%, compared with 2.62% for TMV.
UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 1.04% for TMV.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.40 vs -0.15), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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