UST vs. TMF
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.49%/yr vs -17.83%/yr for TMF. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UST vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.26% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.26% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -2.49%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.83% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- 0.16%
- 1M
- 0.40%
- 6M
- -2.06%
- YTD
- -2.26%
- 1Y
- 2.34%
- 3Y*
- 0.56%
- 5Y*
- -6.94%
- 10Y*
- -2.49%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.06%
- 1M
- 0.34%
- 6M
- -4.70%
- YTD
- -5.26%
- 1Y
- -4.78%
- 3Y*
- -20.42%
- 5Y*
- -31.89%
- 10Y*
- -17.83%
UST vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.26% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.26% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and TMF is 0.90, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | 0.90 |
The correlation between UST and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UST
TMF
UST vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.40 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.45 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 0.98 | +0.05 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.18 | -0.25 | +0.43 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.45 | -0.53 | +0.98 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -92.89% | +44.90% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.75% | -26.51% | +17.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.35% | -55.14% | +38.79% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.97% | -88.81% | +44.84% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -92.89% | +44.90% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -37.93% | -92.16% | +54.23% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.23% | -43.84% | +28.61% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.46% | 12.47% | -9.01% |
Volatility
UST vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 3.09%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.26%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.09% | 8.26% | -5.17% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 7.02% | 19.93% | -12.91% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.38% | 28.09% | -18.71% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.49% | 46.61% | -31.12% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.15% | 43.78% | -30.63% |
UST vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.53%, less than TMF's 4.17% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.17% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.53% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.90, UST and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.26%) compared to UST (3.09%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.49% vs -17.83% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.09%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.49% return vs -17.83%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.17%, compared with 3.53% for UST.
UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 1.01% for TMF.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.16 vs -0.24), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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