UST vs. TMF
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%) while TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.25%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
UST vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.66% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -2.25%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- -0.42%
- 1M
- 1.78%
- YTD
- -2.66%
- 6M
- -2.37%
- 1Y
- 3.24%
- 3Y*
- 0.27%
- 5Y*
- -6.96%
- 10Y*
- -2.25%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.93%
- 1M
- 7.62%
- YTD
- -5.18%
- 6M
- -5.04%
- 1Y
- -1.79%
- 3Y*
- -19.82%
- 5Y*
- -31.10%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
UST vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.66% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.18% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and TMF is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | 0.90 |
The correlation between UST and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
UST
TMF
UST vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.44 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.50 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.05 | 0.99 | +0.06 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.28 | -0.19 | +0.47 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.77 | -0.41 | +1.18 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -92.89% | +44.90% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.75% | -26.51% | +17.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.66% | -56.31% | +39.65% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.97% | -88.81% | +44.84% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -92.89% | +44.90% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -38.19% | -92.15% | +53.96% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.16% | -43.70% | +28.54% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.22% | 11.96% | -8.74% |
Volatility
UST vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) is 3.25%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.43%. This indicates that UST experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.25% | 8.43% | -5.18% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.75% | 19.46% | -12.71% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.35% | 28.49% | -19.14% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.47% | 46.72% | -31.25% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.18% | 43.92% | -30.74% |
UST vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.48%, less than TMF's 4.11% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.11% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.48% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.91, UST and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.43%) compared to UST (3.25%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.25% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.25%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.25% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.11%, compared with 3.48% for UST.
UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 1.01% for TMF.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.27 vs -0.17), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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