UST vs. TLT
UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) and TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - UST is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, UST returned -2.25%/yr vs -1.75%/yr for TLT. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. UST charges 0.95%/yr vs 0.15%/yr for TLT.
Performance
UST vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, UST achieves a -2.66% return, which is significantly lower than TLT's 0.27% return. Over the past 10 years, UST has underperformed TLT with an annualized return of -2.25%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively higher -1.75% annualized return.
UST
- 1D
- -0.42%
- 1M
- 1.78%
- YTD
- -2.66%
- 6M
- -2.37%
- 1Y
- 3.24%
- 3Y*
- 0.27%
- 5Y*
- -6.96%
- 10Y*
- -2.25%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.24%
- 1M
- 2.93%
- YTD
- 0.27%
- 6M
- 0.45%
- 1Y
- 3.88%
- 3Y*
- -1.38%
- 5Y*
- -6.53%
- 10Y*
- -1.75%
UST vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.66% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.27% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between UST and TLT is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | 0.90 |
The correlation between UST and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
UST vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
UST
TLT
UST vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| UST | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.04 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.05 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.05 | 1.06 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.28 | 0.38 | -0.10 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.77 | 0.92 | -0.15 |
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Drawdowns
UST vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum UST drawdown since its inception was -47.99%, roughly equal to the maximum TLT drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for UST and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| UST | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -47.99% | -48.35% | +0.36% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.75% | -7.58% | -1.17% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -16.66% | -19.18% | +2.52% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.97% | -43.70% | -0.27% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -47.99% | -48.35% | +0.36% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -38.19% | -40.12% | +1.93% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.16% | -13.84% | -1.32% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.22% | 3.14% | +0.08% |
Volatility
UST vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) has a higher volatility of 3.25% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.83%. This indicates that UST's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| UST | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.25% | 2.83% | +0.42% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.75% | 6.64% | +0.11% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.35% | 9.68% | -0.33% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.47% | 15.85% | -0.38% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.18% | 14.91% | -1.73% |
UST vs. TLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
UST has a 0.95% expense ratio, which is higher than TLT's 0.15% expense ratio.
Dividends
UST vs. TLT - Dividend Comparison
UST's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.48%, less than TLT's 4.56% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.56% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.48% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.91, UST and TLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
UST has higher volatility (3.25%) compared to TLT (2.83%). In terms of maximum drawdown, UST dropped -47.99% vs TLT's -48.35%.
On 10-year performance, TLT leads with -1.75% vs -2.25% for UST. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.83%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TLT has performed better with a -1.75% return vs -2.25%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UST.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.56%, compared with 3.48% for UST.
UST is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TLT is Government Bonds. UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%), while TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and iShares. Their fees differ too: 0.95% for UST and 0.15% for TLT.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.30 vs 0.27), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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