TMV vs. UST
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%) while UST tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned 1.70%/yr vs -2.53%/yr for UST. Their -0.90 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.
Performance
TMV vs. UST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 16.38% return, which is significantly higher than UST's -4.75% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed UST with an annualized return of 1.70%, while UST has yielded a comparatively lower -2.53% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -0.98%
- 1M
- 12.24%
- 6M
- 14.16%
- YTD
- 16.38%
- 1Y
- 18.32%
- 3Y*
- 10.87%
- 5Y*
- 28.21%
- 10Y*
- 1.70%
- ALL TIME*
- -14.09%
UST
- 1D
- 0.56%
- 1M
- -2.55%
- 6M
- -3.81%
- YTD
- -4.75%
- 1Y
- -2.66%
- 3Y*
- 0.46%
- 5Y*
- -8.21%
- 10Y*
- -2.53%
- ALL TIME*
- 2.37%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $31.46M | $23.47M | $25.72M | |
| $493.89K | $437.03K | $327.72K |
TMV vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 16.38% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -4.75% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and UST is -0.89, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | -0.90 |
The correlation between TMV and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.90 to -0.89 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
UST
TMV vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.97 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.47 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.13 | 0.96 | +0.17 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.95 | -0.30 | +1.25 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.97 | -0.66 | +2.63 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and UST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -47.99% | -50.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -19.32% | -8.86% | -10.46% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -14.85% | -33.64% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -43.53% | -4.96% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -47.99% | -34.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.48% | -39.52% | -55.96% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.67% | -15.35% | -71.32% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.30% | 4.07% | +5.23% |
Volatility
TMV vs. UST - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 7.23% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 2.65%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.23% | 2.65% | +4.58% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 20.10% | 7.24% | +12.86% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.33% | 9.01% | +18.32% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.82% | 15.45% | +31.37% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.23% | 13.15% | +31.08% |
TMV vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. UST - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.27%, less than UST's 3.63% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.27% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.63% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and UST have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (7.23%) compared to UST (2.65%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs UST's -47.99%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with 1.70% vs -2.53% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.65%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a 1.70% return vs -2.53%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.63%, compared with 2.27% for TMV.
TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while UST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for UST.
TMV currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.67 vs -0.30), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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