TMV vs. UST
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMV tracks the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%) while UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.46%/yr vs -2.35%/yr for UST. At a correlation of -0.90, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.
Performance
TMV vs. UST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 1.44% return, which is significantly higher than UST's -2.82% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has outperformed UST with an annualized return of -0.46%, while UST has yielded a comparatively lower -2.35% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
UST
- 1D
- 0.23%
- 1M
- 0.95%
- YTD
- -2.82%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- 1.76%
- 3Y*
- -0.19%
- 5Y*
- -6.85%
- 10Y*
- -2.35%
TMV vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.82% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and UST is -0.91, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | -0.90 |
The correlation between TMV and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
UST
TMV vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.25 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.23 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.04 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.08 | 0.20 | -0.29 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.16 | 0.52 | -0.69 |
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Drawdowns
TMV vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and UST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -47.99% | -50.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -8.75% | -12.87% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -16.66% | -31.83% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -43.97% | -4.52% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -47.99% | -34.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -96.06% | -38.29% | -57.77% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.61% | -15.20% | -71.41% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.09% | 3.37% | +7.72% |
Volatility
TMV vs. UST - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 6.55% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 2.71%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.55% | 2.71% | +3.84% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.56% | 6.85% | +12.71% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.25% | 9.34% | +18.91% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.05% | 15.47% | +31.58% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.38% | 13.16% | +31.22% |
TMV vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. UST - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.70%, less than UST's 3.49% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.49% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and UST have a correlation of -0.91, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to UST (2.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs UST's -47.99%.
On 10-year performance, TMV leads with -0.46% vs -2.35% for UST. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TMV has performed better with a -0.46% return vs -2.35%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
UST has the higher dividend yield at 3.49%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for UST.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.19 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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