TMV vs. GTO
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and GTO (Invesco Total Return Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while GTO is a Intermediate Core-Plus Bond fund actively managed by Invesco. TMV is passively managed, while GTO is actively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.80%/yr vs 2.93%/yr for GTO. At a correlation of -0.78, they often move in opposite directions. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.35%/yr for GTO.
Performance
TMV vs. GTO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 4.73% return, which is significantly higher than GTO's 0.68% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed GTO with an annualized return of -0.80%, while GTO has yielded a comparatively higher 2.93% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.13%
- 1M
- -1.68%
- YTD
- 4.73%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- 1Y
- -4.33%
- 3Y*
- 12.83%
- 5Y*
- 19.12%
- 10Y*
- -0.80%
GTO
- 1D
- -0.15%
- 1M
- 0.49%
- YTD
- 0.68%
- 6M
- 0.69%
- 1Y
- 6.41%
- 3Y*
- 4.86%
- 5Y*
- 0.07%
- 10Y*
- 2.93%
TMV vs. GTO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 4.73% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
GTO Invesco Total Return Bond ETF | 0.68% | 7.17% | 2.63% | 5.95% | -14.77% | -0.38% | 10.86% | 11.65% | -0.26% | 7.41% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and GTO is -0.90, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.90 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.92 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.89 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.79 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 11, 2016 | -0.78 |
The correlation between TMV and GTO shifts across timeframes, from -0.92 (3 years) to -0.78 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. GTO — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
GTO
TMV vs. GTO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Invesco Total Return Bond ETF (GTO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMV | GTO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.03 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.81 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.35 | -0.35 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 2.36 | -2.56 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.40 | 7.50 | -7.89 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMV | GTO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.15 | 1.88 | -2.03 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.41 | 0.01 | +0.40 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.02 | 0.53 | -0.55 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.33 | 0.52 | -0.85 |
Drawdowns
TMV vs. GTO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than GTO's maximum drawdown of -20.61%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and GTO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | GTO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -20.61% | -78.35% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -2.73% | -18.89% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -5.98% | -42.51% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -20.61% | -27.88% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -20.61% | -61.70% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.94% | -1.62% | -94.32% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.60% | -4.80% | -81.80% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.13% | 0.86% | +10.27% |
Volatility
TMV vs. GTO - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 8.15% compared to Invesco Total Return Bond ETF (GTO) at 1.19%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than GTO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | GTO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.15% | 1.19% | +6.96% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.18% | 2.50% | +16.68% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 29.12% | 3.43% | +25.69% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.21% | 5.68% | +41.53% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.44% | 5.58% | +38.86% |
TMV vs. GTO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than GTO's 0.35% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. GTO - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.62%, less than GTO's 4.76% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GTO Invesco Total Return Bond ETF | 4.76% | 4.70% | 4.42% | 4.05% | 3.47% | 1.93% | 4.04% | 2.97% | 5.25% | 2.81% | 2.57% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.62% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and GTO have a correlation of -0.90, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (8.15%) compared to GTO (1.19%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs GTO's -20.61%.
On 10-year performance, GTO leads with 2.93% vs -0.80% for TMV. On fees, GTO is cheaper at 0.35% per year. On volatility, GTO has been the lower-risk option at 1.19%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GTO has performed better with a 2.93% return vs -0.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
GTO is cheaper with a 0.35% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
GTO has the higher dividend yield at 4.76%, compared with 2.62% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GTO is Intermediate Core-Plus Bond. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Invesco. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.35% for GTO.
GTO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.88 vs -0.15), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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