TMF vs. UST
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%) while UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.87%/yr vs -2.35%/yr for UST. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.
Performance
TMF vs. UST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -4.67% return, which is significantly lower than UST's -2.82% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UST with an annualized return of -16.87%, while UST has yielded a comparatively higher -2.35% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
UST
- 1D
- 0.23%
- 1M
- 0.95%
- YTD
- -2.82%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- 1.76%
- 3Y*
- -0.19%
- 5Y*
- -6.85%
- 10Y*
- -2.35%
TMF vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -2.82% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UST is 0.90, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | 0.90 |
The correlation between TMF and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UST
TMF vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.29 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.04 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.11 | 0.20 | -0.31 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.23 | 0.52 | -0.75 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -47.99% | -44.90% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -8.75% | -17.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.09% | -16.66% | -39.43% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -43.97% | -44.84% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -47.99% | -44.90% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.11% | -38.29% | -53.82% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.76% | -15.20% | -28.56% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.26% | 3.37% | +8.89% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UST - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 6.50% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 2.71%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.50% | 2.71% | +3.79% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.35% | 6.85% | +12.50% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.91% | 9.34% | +18.57% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 15.47% | +31.12% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.86% | 13.16% | +30.70% |
TMF vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UST - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.09%, more than UST's 3.49% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.49% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.90, TMF and UST move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (6.50%) compared to UST (2.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UST's -47.99%.
On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.35% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 2.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.35% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 3.49% for UST.
TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for UST.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.19 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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