TMF vs. UST
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%) while UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs -2.45%/yr for UST. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.
Performance
TMF vs. UST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than UST's -4.15% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UST with an annualized return of -17.90%, while UST has yielded a comparatively higher -2.45% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
UST
- 1D
- -0.76%
- 1M
- -1.53%
- 6M
- -4.17%
- YTD
- -4.15%
- 1Y
- 1.32%
- 3Y*
- -0.33%
- 5Y*
- -7.56%
- 10Y*
- -2.45%
TMF vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -4.15% | 10.26% | -6.19% | 0.16% | -30.19% | -7.81% | 18.83% | 13.34% | -1.09% | 3.21% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UST is 0.90, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 2, 2010 | 0.90 |
The correlation between TMF and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UST
TMF vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.35 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.39 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.03 | -0.04 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 0.15 | -0.37 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 0.37 | -0.82 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -47.99% | -44.90% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -8.75% | -17.76% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -16.35% | -38.79% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -43.97% | -44.84% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -47.99% | -44.90% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -39.13% | -53.47% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -15.27% | -28.64% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 3.60% | +9.22% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UST - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 3.14%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 3.14% | +5.37% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 7.06% | +12.88% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 9.34% | +18.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 15.48% | +31.06% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 13.15% | +30.57% |
TMF vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UST - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, more than UST's 3.60% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.60% | 3.65% | 4.09% | 3.49% | 0.47% | 0.27% | 0.53% | 1.42% | 1.71% | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.75% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UST have a correlation of 0.90, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to UST (3.14%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UST's -47.99%.
On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.45% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.14%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.45% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 3.60% for UST.
TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for UST.
UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.14 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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