TMF vs. UST

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UST (ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury) are both Leveraged Bonds funds - TMF tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%) while UST tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.56%/yr vs -2.13%/yr for UST. Their correlation of 0.90 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UST.

Performance

TMF vs. UST - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -6.13% return, which is significantly lower than UST's -2.88% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UST with an annualized return of -16.56%, while UST has yielded a comparatively higher -2.13% annualized return.

TMF

• 1D: -1.14%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: -6.13%
• 6M: -11.63%
• 1Y: 0.90%
• 3Y*: -20.78%
• 5Y*: -30.52%
• 10Y*: -16.56%

UST

• 1D: -0.56%
• 1M: -0.51%
• YTD: -2.88%
• 6M: -4.24%
• 1Y: 3.81%
• 3Y*: -0.51%
• 5Y*: -6.75%
• 10Y*: -2.13%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMF vs. UST - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-6.13%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	-2.88%	10.26%	-6.19%	0.16%	-30.19%	-7.81%	18.83%	13.34%	-1.09%	3.21%

Correlation

The correlation between TMF and UST is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.91
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.90
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.90
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.90
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 3, 2010	0.90

The correlation between TMF and UST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.

TMF vs. UST - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	TMF	UST
Financial Services	18.7%	97.4%
Basic Materials	-	-
Communication Services	-	-
Consumer Cyclical	-	-
Consumer Defensive	-	-
Energy	-	-
Healthcare	-	-
Industrials	-	-
Real Estate	-	-
Technology	-	-
Utilities	-	-

Return for Risk

TMF vs. UST — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

UST

UST Risk / Return Rank: 14
UST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 15
UST Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
UST Omega Ratio Rank: 13
UST Calmar Ratio Rank: 14
UST Martin Ratio Rank: 15

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMF vs. UST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	TMF	UST	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.03	0.40	-0.37
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.25	0.64	-0.39
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.03	1.07	-0.05
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.03	0.44	-0.40
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.08	1.26	-1.18
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

TMF vs. UST - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMF Sharpe Ratio is 0.03, which is lower than the UST Sharpe Ratio of 0.40. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMF and UST, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	TMF	UST	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.03	0.40	-0.37
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.66	-0.44	-0.22
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.38	-0.16	-0.22
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	-0.14	0.19	-0.33

Drawdowns

TMF vs. UST - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UST's maximum drawdown of -47.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UST.

Drawdown Indicators

	TMF	UST	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-92.89%	-47.99%	-44.90%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-26.51%	-8.75%	-17.76%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-56.31%	-16.87%	-39.44%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-88.81%	-43.97%	-44.84%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-92.89%	-47.99%	-44.90%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-92.23%	-38.33%	-53.90%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.63%	-15.13%	-28.50%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	11.49%	3.03%	+8.46%

Volatility

TMF vs. UST - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.09% compared to ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST) at 3.10%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TMF	UST	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	8.09%	3.10%	+4.99%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	19.01%	6.58%	+12.43%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	28.76%	9.50%	+19.26%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	46.75%	15.47%	+31.28%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	43.92%	13.18%	+30.74%

TMF vs. UST - Expense Ratio Comparison

TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UST's 0.95% expense ratio.

Dividends

TMF vs. UST - Dividend Comparison

TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.15%, more than UST's 3.49% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.15%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%
UST ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury	3.49%	3.65%	4.09%	3.49%	0.47%	0.27%	0.53%	1.42%	1.71%	0.84%	0.64%	0.75%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TMF and UST in my portfolio?

With a correlation of 0.91, TMF and UST move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

Which is riskier, TMF or UST?

TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to UST (3.10%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UST's -47.99%.

Which ETF is better, TMF or UST?

On 10-year performance, UST leads with -2.13% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, UST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, UST has been the lower-risk option at 3.10%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, TMF or UST?

Over the 10-year period, UST has performed better with a -2.13% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, TMF or UST?

UST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, TMF or UST?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 3.49% for UST.

What is the main difference between TMF and UST?

TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UST tracks Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Index (200%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for UST.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

UST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.40 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.