TMF vs. UMDD
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UMDD (ProShares UltraPro MidCap400) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UMDD is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the S&P MidCap 400 Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.08%/yr vs 11.03%/yr for UMDD. At a correlation of -0.23, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UMDD.
Performance
TMF vs. UMDD - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.93% return, which is significantly lower than UMDD's 38.51% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UMDD with an annualized return of -18.08%, while UMDD has yielded a comparatively higher 11.03% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.01%
- 1M
- -10.16%
- 6M
- -9.78%
- YTD
- -11.93%
- 1Y
- -7.67%
- 3Y*
- -21.85%
- 5Y*
- -34.00%
- 10Y*
- -18.08%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.40%
UMDD
- 1D
- 3.00%
- 1M
- -1.43%
- 6M
- 22.31%
- YTD
- 38.51%
- 1Y
- 50.43%
- 3Y*
- 17.74%
- 5Y*
- 4.51%
- 10Y*
- 11.03%
- ALL TIME*
- 19.40%
TMF vs. UMDD - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.93% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UMDD ProShares UltraPro MidCap400 | 38.51% | -2.57% | 19.68% | 27.21% | -49.60% | 72.27% | -17.30% | 78.90% | -40.29% | 49.17% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UMDD is 0.29, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.29 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.23 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.10 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.09 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Feb 11, 2010 | -0.23 |
The correlation between TMF and UMDD shifts across timeframes, from -0.23 (all time) to 0.29 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UMDD — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UMDD
TMF vs. UMDD - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraPro MidCap400 (UMDD). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UMDD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.35 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.92 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.98 | 1.20 | -0.23 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.29 | 1.95 | -2.24 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.58 | 6.43 | -7.01 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UMDD - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UMDD's maximum drawdown of -86.24%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UMDD.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UMDD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -86.24% | -6.65% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -26.04% | -0.47% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -53.47% | -60.33% | +6.86% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -64.61% | -24.20% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -86.24% | -6.65% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.71% | -5.90% | -86.81% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.98% | -23.46% | -20.52% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.32% | 7.87% | +5.45% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UMDD - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.32%, while ProShares UltraPro MidCap400 (UMDD) has a volatility of 10.22%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UMDD based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UMDD | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.32% | 10.22% | -2.90% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.81% | 35.30% | -15.49% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.58% | 47.25% | -19.67% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 58.69% | -12.32% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 62.10% | -18.38% |
TMF vs. UMDD - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UMDD's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UMDD - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.48%, more than UMDD's 0.67% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.48% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UMDD ProShares UltraPro MidCap400 | 0.67% | 1.00% | 0.76% | 0.19% | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.64% | 0.32% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.06% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UMDD have a correlation of 0.29, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UMDD has higher volatility (10.22%) compared to TMF (7.32%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UMDD's -86.24%.
On 10-year performance, UMDD leads with 11.03% vs -18.08% for TMF. On fees, UMDD is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.32%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UMDD has performed better with a 11.03% return vs -18.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UMDD is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.48%, compared with 0.67% for UMDD.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UMDD is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UMDD tracks S&P MidCap 400 Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.95% for UMDD.
UMDD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.07 vs -0.28), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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