TMF vs. UGA
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UGA (United States Gasoline Fund LP) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.87%/yr vs 14.31%/yr for UGA. At a correlation of -0.19, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for UGA.
Performance
TMF vs. UGA - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -4.67% return, which is significantly lower than UGA's 64.09% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UGA with an annualized return of -16.87%, while UGA has yielded a comparatively higher 14.31% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
UGA
- 1D
- -1.12%
- 1M
- -12.11%
- YTD
- 64.09%
- 6M
- 60.42%
- 1Y
- 59.74%
- 3Y*
- 18.95%
- 5Y*
- 22.69%
- 10Y*
- 14.31%
TMF vs. UGA - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 64.09% | -2.00% | 3.77% | 1.27% | 46.34% | 68.49% | -24.88% | 41.25% | -28.07% | 1.69% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UGA is -0.39, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.39 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.19 |
The correlation between TMF and UGA shifts across timeframes, from -0.39 (1 year) to -0.16 (10 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UGA — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UGA
TMF vs. UGA - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.83 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.19 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.30 | -0.29 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.11 | 3.17 | -3.27 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.23 | 9.39 | -9.62 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UGA - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UGA's maximum drawdown of -86.59%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UGA.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -86.59% | -6.30% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -18.96% | -7.55% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.09% | -26.68% | -29.41% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -38.11% | -50.70% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -75.89% | -17.00% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.11% | -18.05% | -74.06% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.76% | -36.69% | -7.07% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.26% | 6.43% | +5.83% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UGA - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 6.50%, while United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) has a volatility of 9.24%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UGA based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.50% | 9.24% | -2.74% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.35% | 30.57% | -11.22% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.91% | 35.22% | -7.31% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 34.45% | +12.14% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.86% | 37.22% | +6.64% |
TMF vs. UGA - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UGA's 0.75% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UGA - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.09%, while UGA has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UGA have a correlation of -0.39, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UGA has higher volatility (9.24%) compared to TMF (6.50%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UGA's -86.59%.
On 10-year performance, UGA leads with 14.31% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, UGA is cheaper at 0.75% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 6.50%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UGA has performed better with a 14.31% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UGA is cheaper with a 0.75% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 0.00% for UGA.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UGA is Oil & Gas. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA tracks Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Concierge Technologies. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.75% for UGA.
UGA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.73 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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