TMF vs. UGA
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UGA (United States Gasoline Fund LP) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs 16.39%/yr for UGA. At a correlation of -0.19, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for UGA.
Performance
TMF vs. UGA - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than UGA's 81.31% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UGA with an annualized return of -17.90%, while UGA has yielded a comparatively higher 16.39% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
UGA
- 1D
- 5.54%
- 1M
- 6.45%
- 6M
- 72.85%
- YTD
- 81.31%
- 1Y
- 75.34%
- 3Y*
- 19.85%
- 5Y*
- 25.10%
- 10Y*
- 16.39%
TMF vs. UGA - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 81.31% | -2.00% | 3.77% | 1.27% | 46.34% | 68.49% | -24.88% | 41.25% | -28.07% | 1.69% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UGA is -0.39, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.39 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.20 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.16 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.19 |
Over the past year, the inverse relationship between TMF and UGA has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.19 to -0.39, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UGA — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UGA
TMF vs. UGA - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.33 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.78 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.34 | -0.36 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 3.73 | -3.95 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 10.39 | -10.85 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UGA - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UGA's maximum drawdown of -86.59%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UGA.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -86.59% | -6.30% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -20.32% | -6.19% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -26.68% | -28.46% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -38.11% | -50.70% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -75.89% | -17.00% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -9.45% | -83.15% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -36.63% | -7.28% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 7.28% | +5.54% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UGA - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 8.51%, while United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) has a volatility of 11.49%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UGA based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 11.49% | -2.98% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 31.60% | -11.66% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 35.78% | -8.16% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 34.66% | +11.88% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 37.23% | +6.49% |
TMF vs. UGA - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UGA's 0.75% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UGA - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, while UGA has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UGA have a correlation of -0.39, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UGA has higher volatility (11.49%) compared to TMF (8.51%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UGA's -86.59%.
On 10-year performance, UGA leads with 16.39% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, UGA is cheaper at 0.75% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.51%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UGA has performed better with a 16.39% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UGA is cheaper with a 0.75% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 0.00% for UGA.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UGA is Oil & Gas. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA tracks Front Month Unleaded Gasoline. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Concierge Technologies. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.75% for UGA.
UGA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.12 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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