TMF vs. UGA
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UGA (United States Gasoline Fund, LP) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the Near-Month NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures Contract. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.33%/yr vs 16.82%/yr for UGA. Their -0.19 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 1.02%/yr for UGA.
Performance
TMF vs. UGA - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -15.88% return, which is significantly lower than UGA's 80.98% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UGA with an annualized return of -18.33%, while UGA has yielded a comparatively higher 16.82% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 0.95%
- 1M
- -11.21%
- 6M
- -14.16%
- YTD
- -15.88%
- 1Y
- -17.67%
- 3Y*
- -18.84%
- 5Y*
- -35.05%
- 10Y*
- -18.33%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.63%
UGA
- 1D
- -5.27%
- 1M
- 8.52%
- 6M
- 69.92%
- YTD
- 80.98%
- 1Y
- 78.20%
- 3Y*
- 16.66%
- 5Y*
- 25.31%
- 10Y*
- 16.82%
- ALL TIME*
- 4.51%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $168.22M | $133.63M | $127.70M | |
| $8.16M | $5.91M | $4.98M |
TMF vs. UGA - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -15.88% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund, LP | 80.98% | -2.00% | 3.77% | 1.27% | 46.34% | 68.49% | -24.88% | 41.25% | -28.07% | 1.69% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UGA is -0.39, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.39 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.21 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.16 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.16 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.19 |
Over the past year, the inverse relationship between TMF and UGA has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.19 to -0.39, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UGA — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UGA
TMF vs. UGA - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.82 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -3.46 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.91 | 1.35 | -0.44 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.62 | 3.87 | -4.49 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.25 | 10.83 | -12.08 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UGA - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -93.10%, which is greater than UGA's maximum drawdown of -86.59%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UGA.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.10% | -86.59% | -6.51% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -28.69% | -20.32% | -8.37% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.64% | -26.68% | -23.96% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -89.14% | -38.11% | -51.03% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.10% | -75.89% | -17.21% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -93.04% | -10.61% | -82.43% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.08% | -36.53% | -7.55% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 14.21% | 7.25% | +6.96% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UGA - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.36%, while United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) has a volatility of 12.68%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UGA based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UGA | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.36% | 12.68% | -5.32% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.96% | 32.51% | -12.55% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.08% | 36.42% | -9.34% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 34.68% | +11.69% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.71% | 37.30% | +6.41% |
TMF vs. UGA - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is lower than UGA's 1.02% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UGA - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.69%, while UGA has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.69% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
UGA United States Gasoline Fund, LP | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UGA have a correlation of -0.39, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UGA has higher volatility (12.68%) compared to TMF (7.36%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -93.10% vs UGA's -86.59%.
On 10-year performance, UGA leads with 16.82% vs -18.33% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.36%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UGA has performed better with a 16.82% return vs -18.33%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.02% for UGA.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.69%, compared with 0.00% for UGA.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UGA is Oil & Gas. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UGA tracks Near-Month NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures Contract. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and USCF. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 1.02% for UGA.
UGA currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.16 vs -0.66), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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