TMF vs. TBT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.47%/yr vs 2.01%/yr for TBT. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.93%/yr for TBT.
Performance
TMF vs. TBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a 0.08% return, which is significantly higher than TBT's -2.03% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TBT with an annualized return of -16.47%, while TBT has yielded a comparatively higher 2.01% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 3.90%
- 1M
- 10.18%
- YTD
- 0.08%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- -0.04%
- 3Y*
- -19.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.25%
- 10Y*
- -16.47%
TBT
- 1D
- -3.04%
- 1M
- -7.17%
- YTD
- -2.03%
- 6M
- 0.21%
- 1Y
- -2.51%
- 3Y*
- 9.39%
- 5Y*
- 15.08%
- 10Y*
- 2.01%
TMF vs. TBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 0.08% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | -2.03% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TBT is -0.99, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TMF and TBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TBT
TMF vs. TBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.13 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.25 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.02 | 0.99 | +0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.00 | -0.17 | +0.17 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.00 | -0.33 | +0.33 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum TBT drawdown of -94.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -94.99% | +2.10% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -14.89% | -11.62% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.09% | -33.83% | -22.26% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -33.83% | -54.98% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -65.09% | -27.80% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -91.71% | -86.35% | -5.36% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.78% | -77.34% | +33.56% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.28% | 7.58% | +4.70% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.26% compared to ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) at 5.35%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.26% | 5.35% | +1.91% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.68% | 13.81% | +5.87% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.15% | 19.42% | +8.73% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.63% | 31.35% | +15.28% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.87% | 28.76% | +15.11% |
TMF vs. TBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than TBT's 0.93% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TBT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.95%, more than TBT's 3.04% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 3.04% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 3.95% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and TBT have a correlation of -0.99, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.26%) compared to TBT (5.35%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs TBT's -94.99%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 2.01% vs -16.47% for TMF. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.35%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 2.01% return vs -16.47%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 3.95%, compared with 3.04% for TBT.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TBT is Inverse Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.93% for TBT.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.00 vs -0.13), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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