TMF vs. TBT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.81%/yr vs 3.31%/yr for TBT. At a correlation of -0.99, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.93%/yr for TBT.
Performance
TMF vs. TBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.00% return, which is significantly lower than TBT's 6.06% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed TBT with an annualized return of -17.81%, while TBT has yielded a comparatively higher 3.31% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.03%
- 1M
- -6.57%
- 6M
- -13.01%
- YTD
- -10.00%
- 1Y
- -2.84%
- 3Y*
- -21.08%
- 5Y*
- -33.44%
- 10Y*
- -17.81%
TBT
- 1D
- 0.19%
- 1M
- 4.81%
- 6M
- 8.83%
- YTD
- 6.06%
- 1Y
- 0.31%
- 3Y*
- 10.93%
- 5Y*
- 19.07%
- 10Y*
- 3.31%
TMF vs. TBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.00% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 6.06% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and TBT is -0.99, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.99 |
The correlation between TMF and TBT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -1.00 to -0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. TBT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
TBT
TMF vs. TBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.12 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.11 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.02 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.11 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.22 | 0.04 | -0.26 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. TBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum TBT drawdown of -94.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and TBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -94.99% | +2.10% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -14.68% | -11.83% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -33.83% | -21.31% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -33.83% | -54.98% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -65.09% | -27.80% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.55% | -85.22% | -7.33% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.94% | -77.37% | +33.43% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.06% | 7.57% | +5.49% |
Volatility
TMF vs. TBT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.49% compared to ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) at 5.08%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | TBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.49% | 5.08% | +2.41% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.82% | 13.79% | +6.03% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.47% | 18.90% | +8.57% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.49% | 31.26% | +15.23% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.70% | 28.65% | +15.05% |
TMF vs. TBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than TBT's 0.93% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. TBT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.39%, more than TBT's 2.64% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.64% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.39% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and TBT have a correlation of -0.99, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.49%) compared to TBT (5.08%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs TBT's -94.99%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 3.31% vs -17.81% for TMF. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.08%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 3.31% return vs -17.81%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.39%, compared with 2.64% for TBT.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while TBT is Inverse Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.93% for TBT.
TBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.02 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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