TBT vs. TMV
TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBT returned 2.32%/yr vs -0.46%/yr for TMV. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TBT charges 0.93%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
TBT vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TBT achieves a 1.05% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 1.44% return. Over the past 10 years, TBT has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 2.32%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower -0.46% annualized return.
TBT
- 1D
- -0.51%
- 1M
- -4.25%
- YTD
- 1.05%
- 6M
- 2.51%
- 1Y
- -0.72%
- 3Y*
- 10.52%
- 5Y*
- 16.22%
- 10Y*
- 2.32%
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
TBT vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 1.05% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBT and TMV is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TBT and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TBT vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
TBT
TMV
TBT vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.03 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.03 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.05 | -0.08 | +0.04 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.10 | -0.16 | +0.07 |
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Drawdowns
TBT vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBT drawdown since its inception was -94.99%, roughly equal to the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBT and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -94.99% | -98.96% | +3.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -14.89% | -21.62% | +6.73% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -33.83% | -48.49% | +14.66% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -33.83% | -48.49% | +14.66% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -65.09% | -82.31% | +17.22% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -85.92% | -96.06% | +10.14% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -77.34% | -86.61% | +9.27% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.55% | 11.09% | -3.54% |
Volatility
TBT vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is 4.53%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 6.55%. This indicates that TBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.53% | 6.55% | -2.02% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.49% | 19.56% | -6.07% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 19.19% | 28.25% | -9.06% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.32% | 47.05% | -15.73% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 28.75% | 44.38% | -15.63% |
TBT vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBT has a 0.93% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBT vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
TBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.95%, more than TMV's 2.70% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.95% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TBT and TMV move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to TBT (4.53%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBT dropped -94.99% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 2.32% vs -0.46% for TMV. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.53%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 2.32% return vs -0.46%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBT has the higher dividend yield at 2.95%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
TBT is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMV is Leveraged Bonds. TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.93% for TBT and 1.04% for TMV.
TBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.04 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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