TBT vs. TMV
TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBT returned 3.38%/yr vs 1.11%/yr for TMV. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TBT charges 0.93%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
TBT vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TBT achieves a 6.47% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 9.86% return. Over the past 10 years, TBT has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 3.38%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower 1.11% annualized return.
TBT
- 1D
- 1.35%
- 1M
- 4.17%
- 6M
- 7.64%
- YTD
- 6.47%
- 1Y
- 2.30%
- 3Y*
- 11.05%
- 5Y*
- 18.74%
- 10Y*
- 3.38%
TMV
- 1D
- 1.93%
- 1M
- 6.11%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- YTD
- 9.86%
- 1Y
- 3.30%
- 3Y*
- 13.84%
- 5Y*
- 24.30%
- 10Y*
- 1.11%
TBT vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 6.47% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.86% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBT and TMV is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TBT and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TBT vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
TBT
TMV
TBT vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.00 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.06 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 1.04 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.30 | 0.29 | +0.01 |
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Drawdowns
TBT vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBT drawdown since its inception was -94.99%, roughly equal to the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBT and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -94.99% | -98.96% | +3.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -14.89% | -21.62% | +6.73% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -33.83% | -48.49% | +14.66% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -33.83% | -48.49% | +14.66% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -65.09% | -82.31% | +17.22% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -85.17% | -95.74% | +10.57% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -77.36% | -86.64% | +9.28% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.71% | 11.32% | -3.61% |
Volatility
TBT vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is 5.79%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 8.70%. This indicates that TBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBT | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 5.79% | 8.70% | -2.91% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.88% | 20.16% | -6.28% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.99% | 27.98% | -8.99% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.30% | 47.00% | -15.70% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 28.67% | 44.25% | -15.58% |
TBT vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBT has a 0.93% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBT vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
TBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.63%, more than TMV's 2.41% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.63% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TBT and TMV move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (8.70%) compared to TBT (5.79%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBT dropped -94.99% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TBT leads with 3.38% vs 1.11% for TMV. On fees, TBT is cheaper at 0.93% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 5.79%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBT has performed better with a 3.38% return vs 1.11%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBT is cheaper with a 0.93% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBT has the higher dividend yield at 2.63%, compared with 2.41% for TMV.
TBT is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMV is Leveraged Bonds. TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.93% for TBT and 1.04% for TMV.
TBT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.12 vs 0.12), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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