QQQ vs. TMF
QQQ (Invesco QQQ ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - QQQ is a Nasdaq-100 fund tracking the NASDAQ-100 Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, QQQ returned 20.72%/yr vs -17.99%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.19, they often move in opposite directions. QQQ charges 0.18%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
QQQ vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, QQQ achieves a 13.58% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -11.04% return. Over the past 10 years, QQQ has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 20.72%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.99% annualized return.
QQQ
- 1D
- 0.10%
- 1M
- -5.91%
- 6M
- 12.30%
- YTD
- 13.58%
- 1Y
- 24.61%
- 3Y*
- 23.54%
- 5Y*
- 14.68%
- 10Y*
- 20.72%
- ALL TIME*
- 10.70%
TMF
- 1D
- -2.07%
- 1M
- -9.25%
- 6M
- -12.35%
- YTD
- -11.04%
- 1Y
- -4.28%
- 3Y*
- -21.59%
- 5Y*
- -33.52%
- 10Y*
- -17.99%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.34%
QQQ vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 13.58% | 20.77% | 25.58% | 54.86% | -32.58% | 27.42% | 48.62% | 38.96% | -0.13% | 32.66% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.04% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between QQQ and TMF is 0.16, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.16 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.12 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.03 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.19 |
The correlation between QQQ and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.19 (all time) to 0.16 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
QQQ vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
QQQ
TMF
QQQ vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| QQQ | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.48 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.86 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.23 | 1.00 | +0.24 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.07 | -0.16 | +2.23 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 7.22 | -0.32 | +7.55 |
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Drawdowns
QQQ vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum QQQ drawdown since its inception was -82.97%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for QQQ and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| QQQ | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -82.97% | -92.89% | +9.92% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -11.96% | -26.51% | +14.55% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -22.77% | -53.47% | +30.70% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -35.12% | -88.81% | +53.69% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -35.12% | -92.89% | +57.77% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -6.61% | -92.64% | +86.03% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -32.65% | -43.97% | +11.32% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.42% | 13.22% | -9.80% |
Volatility
QQQ vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) have volatilities of 7.41% and 7.53%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| QQQ | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.41% | 7.53% | -0.12% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 15.55% | 19.87% | -4.32% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 18.78% | 27.62% | -8.84% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 22.81% | 46.39% | -23.58% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 22.45% | 43.72% | -21.27% |
QQQ vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
QQQ has a 0.18% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
QQQ vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
QQQ's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.44%, less than TMF's 4.44% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.44% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.44% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
QQQ and TMF have a correlation of 0.16, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.53%) compared to QQQ (7.41%). In terms of maximum drawdown, QQQ dropped -82.97% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, QQQ leads with 20.72% vs -17.99% for TMF. On fees, QQQ is cheaper at 0.18% per year. On volatility, QQQ has been the lower-risk option at 7.41%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, QQQ has performed better with a 20.72% return vs -17.99%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
QQQ is cheaper with a 0.18% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.44%, compared with 0.44% for QQQ.
QQQ is categorized as Nasdaq-100, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. QQQ tracks NASDAQ-100 Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Invesco and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.18% for QQQ and 1.01% for TMF.
QQQ currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.32 vs -0.16), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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