NUGT vs. TMF
NUGT (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NUGT is a Gold fund tracking the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (200%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, NUGT returned -11.63%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. At a 0.15 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. NUGT charges 1.13%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
NUGT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, NUGT achieves a -32.09% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -4.67% return. Over the past 10 years, NUGT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -11.63%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
NUGT
- 1D
- -9.53%
- 1M
- -19.60%
- YTD
- -32.09%
- 6M
- -39.03%
- 1Y
- 60.88%
- 3Y*
- 55.65%
- 5Y*
- 17.04%
- 10Y*
- -11.63%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
NUGT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF | -32.09% | 425.05% | 2.89% | 2.60% | -32.10% | -26.31% | -60.16% | 100.73% | -44.52% | 3.73% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between NUGT and TMF is 0.19, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.23 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 8, 2010 | 0.15 |
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Return for Risk
NUGT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
NUGT
TMF
NUGT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF (NUGT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.75 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.18 | 1.01 | +0.18 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.96 | -0.11 | +1.07 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.30 | -0.23 | +2.53 |
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Drawdowns
NUGT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum NUGT drawdown since its inception was -99.97%, which is greater than TMF's maximum drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NUGT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -99.97% | -92.89% | -7.08% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -63.43% | -26.51% | -36.92% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -63.43% | -56.09% | -7.34% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -73.72% | -88.81% | +15.09% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -96.91% | -92.89% | -4.02% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -99.84% | -92.11% | -7.73% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -91.53% | -43.76% | -47.77% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 26.52% | 12.26% | +14.26% |
Volatility
NUGT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF (NUGT) has a higher volatility of 35.11% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 6.50%. This indicates that NUGT's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 35.11% | 6.50% | +28.61% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 80.35% | 19.35% | +61.00% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 94.31% | 27.91% | +66.40% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 72.94% | 46.59% | +26.35% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 87.97% | 43.86% | +44.11% |
NUGT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
NUGT has a 1.13% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
NUGT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
NUGT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.44%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF | 0.44% | 0.22% | 1.79% | 1.67% | 0.70% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.63% | 0.57% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
NUGT and TMF have a correlation of 0.19, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
NUGT has higher volatility (35.11%) compared to TMF (6.50%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NUGT dropped -99.97% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, NUGT leads with -11.63% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 6.50%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, NUGT has performed better with a -11.63% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.13% for NUGT.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 0.44% for NUGT.
NUGT is categorized as Gold, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. NUGT tracks MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.13% for NUGT and 1.01% for TMF.
NUGT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.65 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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