NUGT vs. TMF
NUGT (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NUGT is a Gold fund tracking the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (200%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, NUGT returned -15.01%/yr vs -17.87%/yr for TMF. At a 0.15 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. NUGT charges 1.13%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
NUGT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, NUGT achieves a -37.58% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -10.33% return. Over the past 10 years, NUGT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -15.01%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.87% annualized return.
NUGT
- 1D
- 4.04%
- 1M
- -14.45%
- 6M
- -50.47%
- YTD
- -37.58%
- 1Y
- 52.80%
- 3Y*
- 44.99%
- 5Y*
- 14.43%
- 10Y*
- -15.01%
TMF
- 1D
- 0.34%
- 1M
- -5.43%
- 6M
- -11.84%
- YTD
- -10.33%
- 1Y
- -5.12%
- 3Y*
- -21.17%
- 5Y*
- -33.53%
- 10Y*
- -17.87%
NUGT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF | -37.58% | 425.05% | 2.89% | 2.60% | -32.10% | -26.31% | -60.16% | 100.73% | -44.52% | 3.73% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.33% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between NUGT and TMF is 0.19, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.23 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 8, 2010 | 0.15 |
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Return for Risk
NUGT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
NUGT
TMF
NUGT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF (NUGT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.74 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.35 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.17 | 0.99 | +0.18 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.82 | -0.19 | +1.01 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.75 | -0.40 | +2.15 |
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Drawdowns
NUGT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum NUGT drawdown since its inception was -99.97%, which is greater than TMF's maximum drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NUGT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -99.97% | -92.89% | -7.08% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -64.82% | -26.51% | -38.31% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -64.82% | -55.14% | -9.68% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -73.72% | -88.81% | +15.09% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -96.91% | -92.89% | -4.02% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -99.85% | -92.58% | -7.27% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -91.56% | -43.92% | -47.64% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 30.29% | 12.91% | +17.38% |
Volatility
NUGT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF (NUGT) has a higher volatility of 27.51% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.49%. This indicates that NUGT's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| NUGT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 27.51% | 7.49% | +20.02% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 80.24% | 19.84% | +60.40% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 95.08% | 27.57% | +67.51% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 73.31% | 46.51% | +26.80% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 87.69% | 43.72% | +43.97% |
NUGT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
NUGT has a 1.13% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
NUGT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
NUGT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.63%, less than TMF's 4.40% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NUGT Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF | 0.63% | 0.22% | 1.79% | 1.67% | 0.70% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.63% | 0.57% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.40% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
NUGT and TMF have a correlation of 0.19, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
NUGT has higher volatility (27.51%) compared to TMF (7.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NUGT dropped -99.97% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, NUGT leads with -15.01% vs -17.87% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, NUGT has performed better with a -15.01% return vs -17.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.13% for NUGT.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.40%, compared with 0.63% for NUGT.
NUGT is categorized as Gold, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. NUGT tracks MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (200%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.13% for NUGT and 1.01% for TMF.
NUGT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.56 vs -0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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