BOCT vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

BOCT (Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - BOCT is a Defined Outcome fund tracking the S&P 500 Price Return Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 5 years, BOCT returned 10.56%/yr vs -30.52%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.06, they often move in opposite directions. BOCT charges 0.79%/yr vs 1.09%/yr for TMF.

Performance

BOCT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October (BOCT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, BOCT achieves a 7.17% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -6.13% return.

BOCT

• 1D: -0.15%
• 1M: 2.95%
• YTD: 7.17%
• 6M: 7.69%
• 1Y: 20.28%
• 3Y*: 14.58%
• 5Y*: 10.56%
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -1.14%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: -6.13%
• 6M: -11.63%
• 1Y: 0.90%
• 3Y*: -20.78%
• 5Y*: -30.52%
• 10Y*: -16.56%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

BOCT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
BOCT Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October	7.17%	14.34%	12.36%	21.13%	-8.14%	14.97%	14.69%	19.05%	-10.25%
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X	-6.13%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	14.80%

Correlation

The correlation between BOCT and TMF is 0.19, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.19
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.18
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.08
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Oct 2, 2018	-0.06

The correlation between BOCT and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.06 (all time) to 0.19 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

BOCT vs. TMF - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	BOCT	TMF
Technology	36.2%	-
Financial Services	11.9%	18.7%
Communication Services	10.9%	-
Consumer Cyclical	10.1%	-
Healthcare	8.4%	-
Industrials	8.1%	-
Consumer Defensive	4.9%	-
Energy	3.5%	-
Utilities	2.3%	-
Real Estate	1.9%	-
Basic Materials	1.8%	-

Return for Risk

BOCT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

BOCT

BOCT Risk / Return Rank: 77
BOCT Sharpe Ratio Rank: 77
BOCT Sortino Ratio Rank: 78
BOCT Omega Ratio Rank: 80
BOCT Calmar Ratio Rank: 68
BOCT Martin Ratio Rank: 81

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

BOCT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October (BOCT) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	BOCT	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	2.49	0.03	+2.46
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	3.50	0.25	+3.25
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.48	1.03	+0.45
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	3.34	0.03	+3.31
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	16.08	0.08	+16.00
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

BOCT vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current BOCT Sharpe Ratio is 2.49, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of 0.03. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of BOCT and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	BOCT	TMF	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	2.49	0.03	+2.46
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.96	-0.66	+1.61
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	—	-0.38	—
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.77	-0.14	+0.90

Drawdowns

BOCT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum BOCT drawdown since its inception was -24.54%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for BOCT and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	BOCT	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-24.54%	-92.89%	+68.35%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-6.09%	-26.51%	+20.42%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-13.61%	-56.31%	+42.70%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-14.29%	-88.81%	+74.52%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.15%	-92.23%	+92.08%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-2.60%	-43.63%	+41.03%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	1.26%	11.49%	-10.23%

Volatility

BOCT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October (BOCT) is 1.33%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) has a volatility of 8.09%. This indicates that BOCT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	BOCT	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	1.33%	8.09%	-6.76%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	6.11%	19.01%	-12.90%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	8.18%	28.76%	-20.58%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	11.09%	46.75%	-35.66%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.82%	43.92%	-30.10%

BOCT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

BOCT has a 0.79% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.09% expense ratio.

Dividends

BOCT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

BOCT has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.15%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
BOCT Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.20%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X	4.15%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both BOCT and TMF in my portfolio?

BOCT and TMF have a correlation of 0.19, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, BOCT or TMF?

TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to BOCT (1.33%). In terms of maximum drawdown, BOCT dropped -24.54% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, BOCT or TMF?

On 5-year performance, BOCT leads with 10.56% vs -30.52% for TMF. On fees, BOCT is cheaper at 0.79% per year. On volatility, BOCT has been the lower-risk option at 1.33%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, BOCT or TMF?

Over the 5-year period, BOCT has performed better with a 10.56% return vs -30.52%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, BOCT or TMF?

BOCT is cheaper with a 0.79% expense ratio, compared with 1.09% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, BOCT or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 0.00% for BOCT.

What is the main difference between BOCT and TMF?

BOCT is categorized as Defined Outcome, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. BOCT tracks S&P 500 Price Return Index, while TMF tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Innovator and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.79% for BOCT and 1.09% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

BOCT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.49 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.