BOCT vs. TMF
BOCT (Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - BOCT is a Defined Outcome fund tracking the S&P 500 Price Return Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 5 years, BOCT returned 10.48%/yr vs -33.16%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.06, they often move in opposite directions. BOCT charges 0.79%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
BOCT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, BOCT achieves a 7.70% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -10.63% return.
BOCT
- 1D
- -0.43%
- 1M
- 1.27%
- 6M
- 6.34%
- YTD
- 7.70%
- 1Y
- 16.48%
- 3Y*
- 13.19%
- 5Y*
- 10.48%
- 10Y*
- —
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
BOCT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOCT Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October | 7.70% | 14.34% | 12.36% | 21.13% | -8.14% | 14.97% | 14.69% | 19.05% | -10.47% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | 12.29% |
Correlation
The correlation between BOCT and TMF is 0.20, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.20 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Oct 1, 2018 | -0.06 |
The correlation between BOCT and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.06 (all time) to 0.20 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
BOCT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
BOCT
TMF
BOCT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October (BOCT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| BOCT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +2.20 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.91 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.38 | 0.99 | +0.39 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.72 | -0.22 | +2.94 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 12.80 | -0.46 | +13.26 |
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Drawdowns
BOCT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum BOCT drawdown since its inception was -24.54%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for BOCT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| BOCT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -24.54% | -92.89% | +68.35% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -6.09% | -26.51% | +20.42% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -13.61% | -55.14% | +41.53% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -14.29% | -88.81% | +74.52% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -92.89% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -0.43% | -92.60% | +92.17% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -2.57% | -43.91% | +41.34% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 1.29% | 12.82% | -11.53% |
Volatility
BOCT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October (BOCT) is 2.31%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.51%. This indicates that BOCT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| BOCT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.31% | 8.51% | -6.20% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.51% | 19.94% | -13.43% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 8.35% | 27.62% | -19.27% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 11.16% | 46.54% | -35.38% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.76% | 43.72% | -29.96% |
BOCT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
BOCT has a 0.79% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
BOCT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
BOCT has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOCT Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF October | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
BOCT and TMF have a correlation of 0.20, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to BOCT (2.31%). In terms of maximum drawdown, BOCT dropped -24.54% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 5-year performance, BOCT leads with 10.48% vs -33.16% for TMF. On fees, BOCT is cheaper at 0.79% per year. On volatility, BOCT has been the lower-risk option at 2.31%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 5-year period, BOCT has performed better with a 10.48% return vs -33.16%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
BOCT is cheaper with a 0.79% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 0.00% for BOCT.
BOCT is categorized as Defined Outcome, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. BOCT tracks S&P 500 Price Return Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Innovator and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.79% for BOCT and 1.01% for TMF.
BOCT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.99 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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