^TNX vs. TLT
^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index, while TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) is Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 10.79%/yr vs -1.75%/yr for TLT. At a correlation of -0.89, they often move in opposite directions.
Performance
^TNX vs. TLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 7.78% return, which is significantly higher than TLT's 0.27% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TLT with an annualized return of 10.79%, while TLT has yielded a comparatively lower -1.75% annualized return.
^TNX
- 1D
- 0.54%
- 1M
- 0.58%
- YTD
- 7.78%
- 6M
- 6.99%
- 1Y
- 1.42%
- 3Y*
- 5.34%
- 5Y*
- 25.14%
- 10Y*
- 10.79%
TLT
- 1D
- -0.24%
- 1M
- 1.40%
- YTD
- 0.27%
- 6M
- 0.45%
- 1Y
- 3.88%
- 3Y*
- -1.38%
- 5Y*
- -6.53%
- 10Y*
- -1.75%
^TNX vs. TLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 7.78% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.27% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
Correlation
The correlation between ^TNX and TLT is -0.89, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.91 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.88 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jul 26, 2002 | -0.89 |
The correlation between ^TNX and TLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
^TNX vs. TLT — Risk / Return Rank
^TNX
TLT
^TNX vs. TLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| ^TNX | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.10 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.12 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.06 | -0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.25 | 0.38 | -0.13 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.45 | 0.92 | -0.47 |
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Drawdowns
^TNX vs. TLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -96.85%, which is greater than TLT's maximum drawdown of -48.35%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| ^TNX | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -96.85% | -48.35% | -48.50% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -11.94% | -7.58% | -4.36% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -27.41% | -19.18% | -8.23% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.41% | -43.70% | +16.29% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -84.57% | -48.35% | -36.22% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -71.67% | -40.12% | -31.55% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -55.00% | -13.84% | -41.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 6.59% | 3.14% | +3.45% |
Volatility
^TNX vs. TLT - Volatility Comparison
Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) has a higher volatility of 5.04% compared to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at 2.83%. This indicates that ^TNX's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| ^TNX | TLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 5.04% | 2.83% | +2.21% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.72% | 6.64% | +4.08% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 15.22% | 9.68% | +5.54% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 32.36% | 15.85% | +16.51% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 47.97% | 14.91% | +33.06% |
Frequently Asked Questions
^TNX and TLT have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
^TNX has higher volatility (5.04%) compared to TLT (2.83%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -96.85% vs TLT's -48.35%.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.30 vs 0.20), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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