^TNX vs. TMF
^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 11.93%/yr vs -18.47%/yr for TMF. Their -0.89 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past.
Performance
^TNX vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 13.98% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -16.67% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 11.93%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -18.47% annualized return.
^TNX
- 1D
- 1.76%
- 1M
- 5.80%
- 6M
- 11.88%
- YTD
- 13.98%
- 1Y
- 12.44%
- 3Y*
- 5.41%
- 5Y*
- 30.81%
- 10Y*
- 11.93%
- ALL TIME*
- -0.89%
TMF
- 1D
- -2.08%
- 1M
- -12.05%
- 6M
- -15.79%
- YTD
- -16.67%
- 1Y
- -18.44%
- 3Y*
- -20.63%
- 5Y*
- -34.74%
- 10Y*
- -18.47%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.68%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| $161.82M | $130.43M | $127.82M |
^TNX vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 13.98% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -16.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between ^TNX and TMF is -0.88, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.88 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.91 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.89 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.89 |
The correlation between ^TNX and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
^TNX vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
^TNX
TMF
^TNX vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| ^TNX | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.15 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.57 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.11 | 0.93 | +0.18 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.99 | -0.53 | +1.52 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.04 | -1.07 | +3.11 |
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Drawdowns
^TNX vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -96.85%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -93.10%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| ^TNX | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -96.85% | -93.10% | -3.75% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.94% | -28.69% | +19.75% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -27.41% | -50.64% | +23.23% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.41% | -89.14% | +61.73% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -84.57% | -93.10% | +8.53% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -70.04% | -93.10% | +23.06% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -55.04% | -44.07% | -10.97% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 4.64% | 14.10% | -9.46% |
Volatility
^TNX vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) is 3.64%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 7.21%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| ^TNX | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.64% | 7.21% | -3.57% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 11.05% | 19.98% | -8.93% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 14.89% | 27.35% | -12.46% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.23% | 46.36% | -15.13% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 47.62% | 43.70% | +3.92% |
Frequently Asked Questions
^TNX and TMF have a correlation of -0.88, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.21%) compared to ^TNX (3.64%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -96.85% vs TMF's -93.10%.
^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.60 vs -0.55), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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