^TNX vs. TMF

Last updated Jul 14, 2026

^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 11.20%/yr vs -17.90%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.89, they often move in opposite directions.

Performance

^TNX vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 10.71% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -10.63% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 11.20%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.90% annualized return.

^TNX

• 1D: 0.88%
• 1M: 2.72%
• 6M: 10.08%
• YTD: 10.71%
• 1Y: 4.21%
• 3Y*: 6.47%
• 5Y*: 27.72%
• 10Y*: 11.20%

TMF

• 1D: -1.85%
• 1M: -5.74%
• 6M: -11.74%
• YTD: -10.63%
• 1Y: -5.83%
• 3Y*: -21.26%
• 5Y*: -33.16%
• 10Y*: -17.90%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

^TNX vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index	10.71%	-8.97%	18.29%	-0.34%	156.55%	64.89%	-52.21%	-28.56%	11.68%	-1.68%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-10.63%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between ^TNX and TMF is -0.89, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.89
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.91
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.89
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.87
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	-0.89

The correlation between ^TNX and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.87 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

^TNX vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

^TNX

^TNX Risk / Return Rank: 16
^TNX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 17
^TNX Sortino Ratio Rank: 15
^TNX Omega Ratio Rank: 15
^TNX Calmar Ratio Rank: 17
^TNX Martin Ratio Rank: 15

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 7
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 7

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

^TNX vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.28	-0.21	+0.49
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.50	-0.12	+0.61
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.06	0.99	+0.07
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.35	-0.22	+0.57
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.63	-0.46	+1.09

^TNX vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current ^TNX Sharpe Ratio is 0.28, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.21. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of ^TNX and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

^TNX vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -96.85%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-96.85%	-92.89%	-3.96%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-11.94%	-26.51%	+14.57%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-27.41%	-55.14%	+27.73%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-27.41%	-88.81%	+61.40%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-84.57%	-92.89%	+8.32%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-70.90%	-92.60%	+21.70%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-55.02%	-43.91%	-11.11%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.65%	12.82%	-6.17%

Volatility

^TNX vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) is 4.29%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.51%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	4.29%	8.51%	-4.22%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	10.97%	19.94%	-8.97%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	15.01%	27.62%	-12.61%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	31.82%	46.54%	-14.72%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	47.68%	43.72%	+3.96%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both ^TNX and TMF in my portfolio?

^TNX and TMF have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, ^TNX or TMF?

TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to ^TNX (4.29%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -96.85% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.28 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.