^TNX vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

^TNX (Treasury Yield 10 Years) is an index, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 10.18%/yr vs -16.56%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.89, they often move in opposite directions.

Performance

^TNX vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 7.88% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -6.13% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 10.18%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.56% annualized return.

^TNX

• 1D: 0.81%
• 1M: 1.01%
• YTD: 7.88%
• 6M: 10.70%
• 1Y: 0.70%
• 3Y*: 6.76%
• 5Y*: 23.55%
• 10Y*: 10.18%

TMF

• 1D: -1.14%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: -6.13%
• 6M: -11.63%
• 1Y: 0.90%
• 3Y*: -20.78%
• 5Y*: -30.52%
• 10Y*: -16.56%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

^TNX vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
^TNX Treasury Yield 10 Years	7.88%	-8.97%	18.29%	-0.34%	156.55%	64.89%	-52.21%	-28.56%	11.68%	-1.68%
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X	-6.13%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between ^TNX and TMF is -0.89, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.89
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.91
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.89
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	-0.88
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009	-0.89

The correlation between ^TNX and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.91 to -0.88 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

^TNX vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

^TNX

^TNX Risk / Return Rank: 12
^TNX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 12
^TNX Sortino Ratio Rank: 11
^TNX Omega Ratio Rank: 11
^TNX Calmar Ratio Rank: 12
^TNX Martin Ratio Rank: 12

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

^TNX vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	0.05	0.03	+0.01
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	0.17	0.25	-0.08
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.02	1.03	-0.01
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.06	0.03	+0.02
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	0.10	0.08	+0.02
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

^TNX vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current ^TNX Sharpe Ratio is 0.05, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of 0.03. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of ^TNX and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.05	0.03	+0.01
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.73	-0.66	+1.39
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.21	-0.38	+0.59
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	-0.02	-0.14	+0.12

Drawdowns

^TNX vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -93.78%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-93.78%	-92.89%	-0.89%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-12.35%	-26.51%	+14.16%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-27.41%	-56.31%	+28.90%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-27.41%	-88.81%	+61.40%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-84.57%	-92.89%	+8.32%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-44.02%	-92.23%	+48.21%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-51.34%	-43.63%	-7.71%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.97%	11.49%	-4.52%

Volatility

^TNX vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) is 5.08%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) has a volatility of 8.09%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	^TNX	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	5.08%	8.09%	-3.01%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	10.62%	19.01%	-8.39%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	15.50%	28.76%	-13.26%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	32.48%	46.75%	-14.27%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	47.99%	43.92%	+4.07%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both ^TNX and TMF in my portfolio?

^TNX and TMF have a correlation of -0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, ^TNX or TMF?

TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to ^TNX (5.08%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -93.78% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.04 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.