TLT vs. TMF
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TLT returned -2.36%/yr vs -18.37%/yr for TMF. With a 1.00 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TLT charges 0.15%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
TLT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TLT achieves a 0.26% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.70% return. Over the past 10 years, TLT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -2.36%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -18.37% annualized return.
TLT
- 1D
- -0.07%
- 1M
- 0.83%
- 6M
- -0.08%
- YTD
- 0.26%
- 1Y
- 2.73%
- 3Y*
- -0.77%
- 5Y*
- -7.29%
- 10Y*
- -2.36%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.46%
- 1M
- 1.48%
- 6M
- -6.40%
- YTD
- -5.70%
- 1Y
- -5.22%
- 3Y*
- -18.12%
- 5Y*
- -32.78%
- 10Y*
- -18.37%
TLT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.26% | 4.25% | -8.05% | 2.77% | -31.23% | -4.60% | 18.15% | 14.12% | -1.61% | 9.18% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -5.70% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between TLT and TMF is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 1.00 |
The correlation between TLT and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 1.00 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TLT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
TLT
TMF
TLT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.48 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.56 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.05 | 0.99 | +0.06 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.36 | -0.20 | +0.56 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.86 | -0.42 | +1.28 |
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Drawdowns
TLT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TLT drawdown since its inception was -48.35%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TLT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -48.35% | -92.89% | +44.54% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -7.58% | -26.51% | +18.93% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -18.88% | -55.14% | +36.26% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.70% | -88.81% | +45.11% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -48.35% | -92.89% | +44.54% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -40.12% | -92.19% | +52.07% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -13.90% | -43.85% | +29.95% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.18% | 12.48% | -9.30% |
Volatility
TLT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is 2.83%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.19%. This indicates that TLT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.83% | 8.19% | -5.36% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.78% | 19.80% | -13.02% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.53% | 28.02% | -18.49% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.81% | 46.59% | -30.78% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.86% | 43.78% | -28.92% |
TLT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
TLT has a 0.15% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
TLT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
TLT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.57%, more than TMF's 4.19% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.57% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.19% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, TLT and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.19%) compared to TLT (2.83%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TLT dropped -48.35% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, TLT leads with -2.36% vs -18.37% for TMF. On fees, TLT is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, TLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.83%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TLT has performed better with a -2.36% return vs -18.37%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TLT is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.57%, compared with 4.19% for TMF.
TLT is categorized as Government Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. TLT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: iShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.15% for TLT and 1.01% for TMF.
TLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.29 vs -0.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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