^TNX vs. TMV
^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index, while TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 11.02%/yr vs -0.46%/yr for TMV. Their correlation of 0.89 suggests significant overlap in exposure.
Performance
^TNX vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 7.93% return, which is significantly higher than TMV's 1.44% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 11.02%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower -0.46% annualized return.
^TNX
- 1D
- 0.94%
- 1M
- -1.43%
- YTD
- 7.93%
- 6M
- 7.77%
- 1Y
- 4.00%
- 3Y*
- 6.31%
- 5Y*
- 24.75%
- 10Y*
- 11.02%
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
^TNX vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 7.93% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between ^TNX and TMV is 0.88, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.88 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.88 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.89 |
The correlation between ^TNX and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.90 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
^TNX vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
^TNX
TMV
^TNX vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.33 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.37 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.05 | 1.01 | +0.04 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.34 | -0.08 | +0.42 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.61 | -0.16 | +0.78 |
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Drawdowns
^TNX vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -96.85%, roughly equal to the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -96.85% | -98.96% | +2.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -11.94% | -21.62% | +9.68% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -27.41% | -48.49% | +21.08% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.41% | -48.49% | +21.08% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -84.57% | -82.31% | -2.26% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -71.64% | -96.06% | +24.42% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -55.01% | -86.61% | +31.60% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 6.58% | 11.09% | -4.51% |
Volatility
^TNX vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) is 3.57%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 6.55%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.57% | 6.55% | -2.98% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.72% | 19.56% | -8.84% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 15.13% | 28.25% | -13.12% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 32.21% | 47.05% | -14.84% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 47.88% | 44.38% | +3.50% |
Frequently Asked Questions
^TNX and TMV have a correlation of 0.88, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to ^TNX (3.57%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -96.85% vs TMV's -98.96%.
^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.27 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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