^TNX vs. TMV

Last updated Jun 3, 2026

^TNX (Treasury Yield 10 Years) is an index, while TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 10.14%/yr vs -0.91%/yr for TMV. Their correlation of 0.89 suggests significant overlap in exposure.

Performance

^TNX vs. TMV - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 7.49% return, which is significantly higher than TMV's 3.56% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 10.14%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower -0.91% annualized return.

^TNX

• 1D: 0.49%
• 1M: 2.22%
• YTD: 7.49%
• 6M: 9.52%
• 1Y: 0.29%
• 3Y*: 6.63%
• 5Y*: 22.98%
• 10Y*: 10.14%

TMV

• 1D: -0.63%
• 1M: -0.68%
• YTD: 3.56%
• 6M: 9.40%
• 1Y: -4.92%
• 3Y*: 12.41%
• 5Y*: 17.86%
• 10Y*: -0.91%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

^TNX vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
^TNX Treasury Yield 10 Years	7.49%	-8.97%	18.29%	-0.34%	156.55%	64.89%	-52.21%	-28.56%	11.68%	-1.68%
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X	3.56%	-3.75%	39.76%	-9.69%	150.18%	0.83%	-54.13%	-34.22%	3.99%	-26.48%

Correlation

The correlation between ^TNX and TMV is 0.89, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.89
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.91
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.89
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.87
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009	0.89

The correlation between ^TNX and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

^TNX vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

^TNX

^TNX Risk / Return Rank: 12
^TNX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 12
^TNX Sortino Ratio Rank: 12
^TNX Omega Ratio Rank: 12
^TNX Calmar Ratio Rank: 13
^TNX Martin Ratio Rank: 12

TMV

TMV Risk / Return Rank: 7
TMV Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
TMV Sortino Ratio Rank: 7
TMV Omega Ratio Rank: 7
TMV Calmar Ratio Rank: 7
TMV Martin Ratio Rank: 7

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

^TNX vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	^TNX	TMV	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	0.09	-0.17	+0.26
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	0.23	-0.04	+0.27
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.03	1.00	+0.03
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.09	-0.11	+0.21
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	0.17	-0.22	+0.39
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

^TNX vs. TMV - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current ^TNX Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is higher than the TMV Sharpe Ratio of -0.17. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of ^TNX and TMV, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	^TNX	TMV	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.09	-0.17	+0.26
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.71	0.38	+0.33
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.21	-0.02	+0.23
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	-0.02	-0.33	+0.31

Drawdowns

^TNX vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -93.78%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMV.

Drawdown Indicators

	^TNX	TMV	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-93.78%	-98.96%	+5.18%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-12.35%	-21.73%	+9.38%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-27.41%	-48.49%	+21.08%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-27.41%	-48.49%	+21.08%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-84.57%	-82.31%	-2.26%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-44.22%	-95.98%	+51.76%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-51.35%	-86.60%	+35.25%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.96%	11.12%	-4.16%

Volatility

^TNX vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) is 5.23%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 8.37%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	^TNX	TMV	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	5.23%	8.37%	-3.14%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	10.75%	19.47%	-8.72%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	15.54%	29.22%	-13.68%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	32.50%	47.21%	-14.71%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	48.04%	44.45%	+3.59%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both ^TNX and TMV in my portfolio?

^TNX and TMV have a correlation of 0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, ^TNX or TMV?

TMV has higher volatility (8.37%) compared to ^TNX (5.23%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -93.78% vs TMV's -98.96%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.09 vs -0.17), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.