^TNX vs. TMV
^TNX (Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index) is an index, while TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Over the past 10 years, ^TNX returned 11.20%/yr vs 1.11%/yr for TMV. Their correlation of 0.89 suggests significant overlap in exposure.
Performance
^TNX vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, ^TNX achieves a 10.71% return, which is significantly higher than TMV's 9.86% return. Over the past 10 years, ^TNX has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 11.20%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower 1.11% annualized return.
^TNX
- 1D
- 0.88%
- 1M
- 2.72%
- 6M
- 10.08%
- YTD
- 10.71%
- 1Y
- 4.21%
- 3Y*
- 6.47%
- 5Y*
- 27.72%
- 10Y*
- 11.20%
TMV
- 1D
- 1.93%
- 1M
- 6.11%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- YTD
- 9.86%
- 1Y
- 3.30%
- 3Y*
- 13.84%
- 5Y*
- 24.30%
- 10Y*
- 1.11%
^TNX vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^TNX Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index | 10.71% | -8.97% | 18.29% | -0.34% | 156.55% | 64.89% | -52.21% | -28.56% | 11.68% | -1.68% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.86% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between ^TNX and TMV is 0.89, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.89 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.91 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.89 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.87 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.89 |
The correlation between ^TNX and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
^TNX vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
^TNX
TMV
^TNX vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.16 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.14 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.06 | 1.04 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.35 | 0.15 | +0.20 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.63 | 0.29 | +0.34 |
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Drawdowns
^TNX vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum ^TNX drawdown since its inception was -96.85%, roughly equal to the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for ^TNX and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -96.85% | -98.96% | +2.11% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -11.94% | -21.62% | +9.68% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -27.41% | -48.49% | +21.08% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.41% | -48.49% | +21.08% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -84.57% | -82.31% | -2.26% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -70.90% | -95.74% | +24.84% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -55.02% | -86.64% | +31.62% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 6.65% | 11.32% | -4.67% |
Volatility
^TNX vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Cboe 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Index (^TNX) is 4.29%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 8.70%. This indicates that ^TNX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| ^TNX | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.29% | 8.70% | -4.41% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.97% | 20.16% | -9.19% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 15.01% | 27.98% | -12.97% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.82% | 47.00% | -15.18% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 47.68% | 44.25% | +3.43% |
Frequently Asked Questions
^TNX and TMV have a correlation of 0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (8.70%) compared to ^TNX (4.29%). In terms of maximum drawdown, ^TNX dropped -96.85% vs TMV's -98.96%.
^TNX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.28 vs 0.12), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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