VIPSX vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 16, 2026

VIPSX (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both funds - VIPSX is a Inflation-Protected Bonds fund managed by Vanguard, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 10 years, VIPSX returned 2.47%/yr vs -16.93%/yr for TMF. A 0.76 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined. VIPSX charges 0.20%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

VIPSX vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VIPSX achieves a 1.17% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -5.18% return. Over the past 10 years, VIPSX has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 2.47%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.93% annualized return.

VIPSX

• 1D: -0.17%
• 1M: 0.34%
• YTD: 1.17%
• 6M: 1.28%
• 1Y: 4.66%
• 3Y*: 3.93%
• 5Y*: 0.88%
• 10Y*: 2.47%

TMF

• 1D: 0.00%
• 1M: 7.62%
• YTD: -5.18%
• 6M: -5.24%
• 1Y: -1.79%
• 3Y*: -20.85%
• 5Y*: -30.62%
• 10Y*: -16.93%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VIPSX vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares	1.17%	6.77%	1.74%	3.73%	-12.04%	5.57%	10.90%	8.06%	-1.48%	2.81%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-5.18%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between VIPSX and TMF is 0.79, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.79
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.85
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.77
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.76
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	0.76

The correlation between VIPSX and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.76 to 0.85 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

VIPSX vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

VIPSX

VIPSX Risk / Return Rank: 33
VIPSX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 29
VIPSX Sortino Ratio Rank: 31
VIPSX Omega Ratio Rank: 27
VIPSX Calmar Ratio Rank: 43
VIPSX Martin Ratio Rank: 34

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VIPSX vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	VIPSX	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.34	-0.06	+1.40
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.03	0.11	+1.92
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.23	1.01	+0.22
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.23	-0.07	+2.30
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	6.81	-0.15	+6.96

VIPSX vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VIPSX Sharpe Ratio is 1.34, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.06. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VIPSX and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

VIPSX vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VIPSX drawdown since its inception was -15.13%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VIPSX and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	VIPSX	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-15.13%	-92.89%	+77.76%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-2.02%	-26.51%	+24.49%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-4.57%	-56.31%	+51.74%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-14.55%	-88.81%	+74.26%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-14.55%	-92.89%	+78.34%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.53%	-92.15%	+91.62%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-3.24%	-43.71%	+40.47%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	0.66%	12.01%	-11.35%

Volatility

VIPSX vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX) is 1.20%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.43%. This indicates that VIPSX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	VIPSX	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	1.20%	8.43%	-7.23%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	2.40%	19.46%	-17.06%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	3.37%	28.14%	-24.77%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	5.99%	46.73%	-40.74%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	5.33%	43.93%	-38.60%

VIPSX vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

VIPSX has a 0.20% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

VIPSX vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

VIPSX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.41%, more than TMF's 4.11% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.11%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares	4.41%	4.64%	4.07%	4.20%	8.34%	5.03%	1.28%	2.22%	3.03%	2.32%	3.38%	0.77%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both VIPSX and TMF in my portfolio?

VIPSX and TMF have a correlation of 0.79, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, VIPSX or TMF?

TMF has higher volatility (8.43%) compared to VIPSX (1.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VIPSX dropped -15.13% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VIPSX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.34 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.