TMV vs. PST
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and PST (ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while PST is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.80%/yr vs 2.47%/yr for PST. Their correlation of 0.91 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for PST.
Performance
TMV vs. PST - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with TMV having a 4.73% return and PST slightly lower at 4.57%. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed PST with an annualized return of -0.80%, while PST has yielded a comparatively higher 2.47% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.13%
- 1M
- -1.68%
- YTD
- 4.73%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- 1Y
- -4.33%
- 3Y*
- 12.83%
- 5Y*
- 19.12%
- 10Y*
- -0.80%
PST
- 1D
- 0.51%
- 1M
- 0.80%
- YTD
- 4.57%
- 6M
- 6.73%
- 1Y
- 1.08%
- 3Y*
- 5.59%
- 5Y*
- 9.21%
- 10Y*
- 2.47%
TMV vs. PST - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 4.73% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury | 4.57% | -4.42% | 12.27% | 3.17% | 38.55% | 4.01% | -18.67% | -11.03% | 1.72% | -4.52% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and PST is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.90 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009 | 0.91 |
The correlation between TMV and PST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.90 to 0.91 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. PST — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
PST
TMV vs. PST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMV | PST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.26 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.24 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.03 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 0.15 | -0.35 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.40 | 0.26 | -0.66 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMV | PST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.15 | 0.11 | -0.26 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.41 | 0.59 | -0.19 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.02 | 0.19 | -0.20 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.33 | -0.37 | +0.05 |
Drawdowns
TMV vs. PST - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than PST's maximum drawdown of -79.25%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and PST.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | PST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -79.25% | -19.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -7.25% | -14.37% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -16.19% | -32.30% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -16.19% | -32.30% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -36.07% | -46.24% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.94% | -64.13% | -31.81% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.60% | -61.48% | -25.12% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.13% | 4.16% | +6.97% |
Volatility
TMV vs. PST - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 8.15% compared to ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) at 3.19%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than PST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | PST | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.15% | 3.19% | +4.96% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.18% | 6.75% | +12.43% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 29.12% | 9.62% | +19.50% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.21% | 15.60% | +31.61% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.44% | 13.32% | +31.12% |
TMV vs. PST - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than PST's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. PST - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.62%, less than PST's 3.08% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PST ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury | 3.08% | 3.47% | 3.61% | 3.69% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 1.85% | 0.66% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.62% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.91, TMV and PST move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (8.15%) compared to PST (3.19%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs PST's -79.25%.
On 10-year performance, PST leads with 2.47% vs -0.80% for TMV. On fees, PST is cheaper at 0.95% per year. On volatility, PST has been the lower-risk option at 3.19%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, PST has performed better with a 2.47% return vs -0.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
PST is cheaper with a 0.95% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
PST has the higher dividend yield at 3.08%, compared with 2.62% for TMV.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while PST is Inverse Bonds. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while PST tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.95% for PST.
PST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.11 vs -0.15), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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