TMF vs. VIPSX

Last updated Jun 16, 2026

TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and VIPSX (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares) are both funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VIPSX is a Inflation-Protected Bonds fund managed by Vanguard. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.93%/yr vs 2.47%/yr for VIPSX. A 0.76 correlation means they provide meaningful diversification when combined. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.20%/yr for VIPSX.

Performance

TMF vs. VIPSX - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -5.18% return, which is significantly lower than VIPSX's 1.17% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VIPSX with an annualized return of -16.93%, while VIPSX has yielded a comparatively higher 2.47% annualized return.

TMF

• 1D: 0.00%
• 1M: 7.62%
• YTD: -5.18%
• 6M: -5.24%
• 1Y: -1.79%
• 3Y*: -20.85%
• 5Y*: -30.62%
• 10Y*: -16.93%

VIPSX

• 1D: -0.17%
• 1M: 0.34%
• YTD: 1.17%
• 6M: 1.28%
• 1Y: 4.66%
• 3Y*: 3.93%
• 5Y*: 0.88%
• 10Y*: 2.47%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMF vs. VIPSX - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-5.18%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares	1.17%	6.77%	1.74%	3.73%	-12.04%	5.57%	10.90%	8.06%	-1.48%	2.81%

Correlation

The correlation between TMF and VIPSX is 0.79, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.79
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.85
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.77
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.76
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009	0.76

The correlation between TMF and VIPSX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.76 to 0.85 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

TMF vs. VIPSX — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

VIPSX

VIPSX Risk / Return Rank: 33
VIPSX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 29
VIPSX Sortino Ratio Rank: 31
VIPSX Omega Ratio Rank: 27
VIPSX Calmar Ratio Rank: 43
VIPSX Martin Ratio Rank: 34

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMF vs. VIPSX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TMF	VIPSX	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.06	1.34	-1.40
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.11	2.03	-1.92
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.01	1.23	-0.22
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.07	2.23	-2.30
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-0.15	6.81	-6.96

TMF vs. VIPSX - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMF Sharpe Ratio is -0.06, which is lower than the VIPSX Sharpe Ratio of 1.34. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMF and VIPSX, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TMF vs. VIPSX - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VIPSX's maximum drawdown of -15.13%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VIPSX.

Drawdown Indicators

	TMF	VIPSX	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-92.89%	-15.13%	-77.76%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-26.51%	-2.02%	-24.49%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-56.31%	-4.57%	-51.74%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-88.81%	-14.55%	-74.26%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-92.89%	-14.55%	-78.34%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-92.15%	-0.53%	-91.62%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.71%	-3.24%	-40.47%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	12.01%	0.66%	+11.35%

Volatility

TMF vs. VIPSX - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.43% compared to Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX) at 1.20%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VIPSX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TMF	VIPSX	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	8.43%	1.20%	+7.23%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	19.46%	2.40%	+17.06%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	28.14%	3.37%	+24.77%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	46.73%	5.99%	+40.74%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	43.93%	5.33%	+38.60%

TMF vs. VIPSX - Expense Ratio Comparison

TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than VIPSX's 0.20% expense ratio.

Dividends

TMF vs. VIPSX - Dividend Comparison

TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.11%, less than VIPSX's 4.41% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.11%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%	0.00%	0.00%
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares	4.41%	4.64%	4.07%	4.20%	8.34%	5.03%	1.28%	2.22%	3.03%	2.32%	3.38%	0.77%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TMF and VIPSX in my portfolio?

TMF and VIPSX have a correlation of 0.79, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TMF or VIPSX?

TMF has higher volatility (8.43%) compared to VIPSX (1.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VIPSX's -15.13%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VIPSX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.34 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.