TMF vs. UUP
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UUP is a Currency fund tracking the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX) Futures Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs 3.17%/yr for UUP. At a correlation of -0.07, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for UUP.
Performance
TMF vs. UUP - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than UUP's 5.44% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed UUP with an annualized return of -17.90%, while UUP has yielded a comparatively higher 3.17% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
UUP
- 1D
- 0.39%
- 1M
- 1.97%
- 6M
- 4.47%
- YTD
- 5.44%
- 1Y
- 8.28%
- 3Y*
- 5.86%
- 5Y*
- 5.89%
- 10Y*
- 3.17%
TMF vs. UUP - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 5.44% | -4.99% | 13.50% | 3.63% | 9.46% | 5.73% | -6.66% | 4.09% | 7.05% | -9.10% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and UUP is -0.36, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.36 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.33 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.25 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.19 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.07 |
Over the past year, the inverse relationship between TMF and UUP has strengthened: their correlation has moved from -0.07 to -0.36, meaning they now move in opposite directions more often than their long-term average.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. UUP — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
UUP
TMF vs. UUP - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | UUP | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.59 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.10 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.25 | -0.26 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 2.28 | -2.50 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 6.26 | -6.72 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. UUP - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than UUP's maximum drawdown of -22.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and UUP.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | UUP | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -22.19% | -70.70% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -3.65% | -22.86% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -10.05% | -45.09% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -10.37% | -78.44% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -14.24% | -78.65% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -1.26% | -91.34% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -8.88% | -35.03% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 1.33% | +11.49% |
Volatility
TMF vs. UUP - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) at 1.45%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than UUP based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | UUP | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 1.45% | +7.06% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 4.34% | +15.60% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 6.03% | +21.59% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 7.22% | +39.32% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 6.90% | +36.82% |
TMF vs. UUP - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than UUP's 0.75% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. UUP - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, more than UUP's 3.25% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 3.25% | 3.43% | 4.48% | 6.44% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and UUP have a correlation of -0.36, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to UUP (1.45%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs UUP's -22.19%.
On 10-year performance, UUP leads with 3.17% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, UUP is cheaper at 0.75% per year. On volatility, UUP has been the lower-risk option at 1.45%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, UUP has performed better with a 3.17% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
UUP is cheaper with a 0.75% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 3.25% for UUP.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while UUP is Currency. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while UUP tracks Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX) Futures Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Invesco. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.75% for UUP.
UUP currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.38 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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