TMF vs. USO
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and USO (United States Oil Fund LP) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while USO is a Oil & Gas fund tracking the Front Month Light Sweet Crude Oil. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.33%/yr vs 4.47%/yr for USO. Their -0.24 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.86%/yr for USO.
Performance
TMF vs. USO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -15.88% return, which is significantly lower than USO's 76.58% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed USO with an annualized return of -18.33%, while USO has yielded a comparatively higher 4.47% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 0.95%
- 1M
- -11.21%
- 6M
- -14.16%
- YTD
- -15.88%
- 1Y
- -17.67%
- 3Y*
- -18.84%
- 5Y*
- -35.05%
- 10Y*
- -18.33%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.63%
USO
- 1D
- -5.46%
- 1M
- 17.45%
- 6M
- 62.11%
- YTD
- 76.58%
- 1Y
- 57.66%
- 3Y*
- 18.29%
- 5Y*
- 20.94%
- 10Y*
- 4.47%
- ALL TIME*
- -7.11%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $168.22M | $133.63M | $127.70M | |
| $981.29M | $906.75M | $905.81M |
TMF vs. USO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -15.88% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
USO United States Oil Fund LP | 76.58% | -8.46% | 13.35% | -4.94% | 28.97% | 64.68% | -67.79% | 32.61% | -19.57% | 2.47% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and USO is -0.40, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.40 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.24 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.19 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.19 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and USO shifts across timeframes, from -0.40 (1 year) to -0.19 (10 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. USO — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
USO
TMF vs. USO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and United States Oil Fund LP (USO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | USO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.89 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.68 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.91 | 1.23 | -0.32 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.62 | 1.78 | -2.40 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.25 | 5.23 | -6.48 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. USO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -93.10%, smaller than the maximum USO drawdown of -98.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and USO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | USO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.10% | -98.19% | +5.09% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -28.69% | -32.49% | +3.80% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.64% | -32.49% | -18.15% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -89.14% | -36.23% | -52.91% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.10% | -86.75% | -6.35% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -93.04% | -87.01% | -6.03% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.08% | -75.38% | +31.30% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 14.21% | 11.24% | +2.97% |
Volatility
TMF vs. USO - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.36%, while United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has a volatility of 18.95%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than USO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | USO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.36% | 18.95% | -11.59% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.96% | 43.21% | -23.25% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.08% | 47.21% | -20.13% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 37.13% | +9.24% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.71% | 39.32% | +4.39% |
TMF vs. USO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than USO's 0.86% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. USO - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.69%, while USO has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.69% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
USO United States Oil Fund LP | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and USO have a correlation of -0.40, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
USO has higher volatility (18.95%) compared to TMF (7.36%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -93.10% vs USO's -98.19%.
On 10-year performance, USO leads with 4.47% vs -18.33% for TMF. On fees, USO is cheaper at 0.86% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.36%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, USO has performed better with a 4.47% return vs -18.33%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
USO is cheaper with a 0.86% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.69%, compared with 0.00% for USO.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while USO is Oil & Gas. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while USO tracks Front Month Light Sweet Crude Oil. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and USCF. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.86% for USO.
USO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.23 vs -0.66), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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