TMF vs. NAIL
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and NAIL (Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while NAIL is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.08%/yr vs 2.20%/yr for NAIL. At a 0.09 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.99%/yr for NAIL.
Performance
TMF vs. NAIL - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -11.93% return, which is significantly higher than NAIL's -22.74% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed NAIL with an annualized return of -18.08%, while NAIL has yielded a comparatively higher 2.20% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.01%
- 1M
- -10.16%
- 6M
- -9.78%
- YTD
- -11.93%
- 1Y
- -7.67%
- 3Y*
- -21.85%
- 5Y*
- -34.00%
- 10Y*
- -18.08%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.40%
NAIL
- 1D
- -1.60%
- 1M
- -16.35%
- 6M
- -39.64%
- YTD
- -22.74%
- 1Y
- -29.80%
- 3Y*
- -20.75%
- 5Y*
- -12.02%
- 10Y*
- 2.20%
- ALL TIME*
- 0.03%
TMF vs. NAIL - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -11.93% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares | -22.74% | -40.43% | -22.83% | 259.61% | -75.23% | 168.20% | -32.08% | 184.63% | -73.96% | 268.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and NAIL is 0.46, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.46 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.38 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.28 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.11 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 19, 2015 | 0.09 |
Over the past year, TMF and NAIL have become more correlated (0.46) than their long-term average of 0.09, meaning their price movements have been converging.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. NAIL — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
NAIL
TMF vs. NAIL - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | NAIL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.05 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.98 | 1.01 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.29 | -0.44 | +0.15 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.58 | -0.70 | +0.12 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. NAIL - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum NAIL drawdown of -93.75%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and NAIL.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | NAIL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -93.75% | +0.86% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -67.85% | +41.34% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -53.47% | -82.09% | +28.62% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -84.40% | -4.41% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -93.75% | +0.86% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.71% | -77.92% | -14.79% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.98% | -44.14% | +0.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 13.32% | 42.73% | -29.41% |
Volatility
TMF vs. NAIL - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.32%, while Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has a volatility of 28.81%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than NAIL based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | NAIL | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.32% | 28.81% | -21.49% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.81% | 64.42% | -44.61% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.58% | 89.85% | -62.27% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.37% | 88.02% | -41.65% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 89.71% | -45.99% |
TMF vs. NAIL - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than NAIL's 0.99% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. NAIL - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.48%, more than NAIL's 0.81% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares | 0.81% | 1.55% | 0.63% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.35% | 1.25% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.48% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and NAIL have a correlation of 0.46, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
NAIL has higher volatility (28.81%) compared to TMF (7.32%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs NAIL's -93.75%.
On 10-year performance, NAIL leads with 2.20% vs -18.08% for TMF. On fees, NAIL is cheaper at 0.99% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.32%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, NAIL has performed better with a 2.20% return vs -18.08%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
NAIL is cheaper with a 0.99% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.48%, compared with 0.81% for NAIL.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while NAIL is Leveraged Equities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while NAIL tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.99% for NAIL.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.28 vs -0.33), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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