TMF vs. GSG
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and GSG (iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while GSG is a Commodities fund tracking the S&P GSCI Total Return Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs 7.40%/yr for GSG. At a correlation of -0.22, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for GSG.
Performance
TMF vs. GSG - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than GSG's 32.35% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed GSG with an annualized return of -17.90%, while GSG has yielded a comparatively higher 7.40% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
GSG
- 1D
- 3.60%
- 1M
- -0.20%
- 6M
- 28.24%
- YTD
- 32.35%
- 1Y
- 34.57%
- 3Y*
- 14.41%
- 5Y*
- 13.83%
- 10Y*
- 7.40%
TMF vs. GSG - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | 32.35% | 5.93% | 8.52% | -5.51% | 24.08% | 38.77% | -23.94% | 15.62% | -13.88% | 3.89% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and GSG is -0.36, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.36 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.15 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.17 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.22 |
The correlation between TMF and GSG shifts across timeframes, from -0.36 (1 year) to -0.15 (5 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. GSG — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
GSG
TMF vs. GSG - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | GSG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.69 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.18 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.27 | -0.28 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 1.85 | -2.07 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 6.29 | -6.75 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. GSG - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, roughly equal to the maximum GSG drawdown of -89.62%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and GSG.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | GSG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -89.62% | -3.27% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -18.81% | -7.70% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -18.81% | -36.33% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -29.12% | -59.69% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -57.64% | -35.25% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -60.04% | -32.56% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -63.69% | +19.78% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 5.51% | +7.31% |
Volatility
TMF vs. GSG - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) at 7.35%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than GSG based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | GSG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 7.35% | +1.16% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 21.50% | -1.56% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 23.48% | +4.14% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 22.80% | +23.74% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 22.00% | +21.72% |
TMF vs. GSG - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than GSG's 0.75% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. GSG - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, while GSG has not paid dividends to shareholders.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and GSG have a correlation of -0.36, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to GSG (7.35%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs GSG's -89.62%.
On 10-year performance, GSG leads with 7.40% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, GSG is cheaper at 0.75% per year. On volatility, GSG has been the lower-risk option at 7.35%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, GSG has performed better with a 7.40% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
GSG is cheaper with a 0.75% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 0.00% for GSG.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while GSG is Commodities. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while GSG tracks S&P GSCI Total Return Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.75% for GSG.
GSG currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.48 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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