SPDN vs. TMF
SPDN (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - SPDN is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 5 years, SPDN returned -8.88%/yr vs -30.52%/yr for TMF. At a 0.09 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. SPDN charges 0.50%/yr vs 1.09%/yr for TMF.
Performance
SPDN vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, SPDN achieves a -7.81% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -6.13% return.
SPDN
- 1D
- 0.58%
- 1M
- -4.42%
- YTD
- -7.81%
- 6M
- -7.36%
- 1Y
- -16.94%
- 3Y*
- -12.80%
- 5Y*
- -8.88%
- 10Y*
- —
TMF
- 1D
- -1.14%
- 1M
- 1.22%
- YTD
- -6.13%
- 6M
- -11.63%
- 1Y
- 0.90%
- 3Y*
- -20.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.52%
- 10Y*
- -16.56%
SPDN vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | -7.81% | -11.09% | -12.88% | -15.04% | 18.63% | -23.72% | -24.56% | -21.94% | 5.41% | -17.16% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -6.13% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between SPDN and TMF is -0.18, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.07 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 9, 2016 | 0.09 |
The correlation between SPDN and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.18 (1 year) to 0.09 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
SPDN vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
SPDN
TMF
SPDN vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.41 | 0.03 | -1.44 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.02 | 0.25 | -2.27 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.78 | 1.03 | -0.25 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.95 | 0.03 | -0.98 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.74 | 0.08 | -1.81 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -1.41 | 0.03 | -1.44 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.53 | -0.66 | +0.13 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | — | -0.38 | — |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.70 | -0.14 | -0.56 |
Drawdowns
SPDN vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum SPDN drawdown since its inception was -75.31%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SPDN and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -75.31% | -92.89% | +17.58% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -17.95% | -26.51% | +8.56% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -38.24% | -56.31% | +18.07% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.85% | -88.81% | +44.96% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -92.89% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -75.17% | -92.23% | +17.06% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -48.54% | -43.63% | -4.91% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.78% | 11.49% | -1.71% |
Volatility
SPDN vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) is 2.78%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) has a volatility of 8.09%. This indicates that SPDN experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.78% | 8.09% | -5.31% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 9.08% | 19.01% | -9.93% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 12.10% | 28.76% | -16.66% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 16.86% | 46.75% | -29.89% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 18.04% | 43.92% | -25.88% |
SPDN vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
SPDN has a 0.50% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
SPDN vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
SPDN's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.09%, less than TMF's 4.15% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | 4.09% | 4.06% | 5.32% | 5.84% | 0.96% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 1.89% | 1.24% | 0.42% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4.15% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
SPDN and TMF have a correlation of -0.18, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to SPDN (2.78%). In terms of maximum drawdown, SPDN dropped -75.31% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 5-year performance, SPDN leads with -8.88% vs -30.52% for TMF. On fees, SPDN is cheaper at 0.50% per year. On volatility, SPDN has been the lower-risk option at 2.78%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 5-year period, SPDN has performed better with a -8.88% return vs -30.52%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPDN is cheaper with a 0.50% expense ratio, compared with 1.09% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 4.09% for SPDN.
SPDN is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. SPDN tracks S&P 500 Index, while TMF tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.50% for SPDN and 1.09% for TMF.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.03 vs -1.41), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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