SPDN vs. TMF
SPDN (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - SPDN is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, SPDN returned -12.66%/yr vs -16.87%/yr for TMF. At a 0.08 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. SPDN charges 0.50%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
SPDN vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, SPDN achieves a -6.10% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -4.67% return. Over the past 10 years, SPDN has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -12.66%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.87% annualized return.
SPDN
- 1D
- 0.69%
- 1M
- 0.80%
- YTD
- -6.10%
- 6M
- -5.09%
- 1Y
- -14.93%
- 3Y*
- -11.95%
- 5Y*
- -8.36%
- 10Y*
- -12.66%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
SPDN vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | -6.10% | -11.09% | -12.88% | -15.04% | 18.63% | -23.72% | -24.56% | -21.94% | 5.41% | -17.16% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between SPDN and TMF is -0.21, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 8, 2016 | 0.08 |
The correlation between SPDN and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.21 (1 year) to 0.08 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
SPDN vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
SPDN
TMF
SPDN vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.09 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.76 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.81 | 1.01 | -0.19 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.93 | -0.11 | -0.83 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.75 | -0.23 | -1.52 |
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Drawdowns
SPDN vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum SPDN drawdown since its inception was -75.31%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SPDN and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -75.31% | -92.89% | +17.58% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -16.05% | -26.51% | +10.46% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -38.24% | -56.09% | +17.85% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.85% | -88.81% | +44.96% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -75.31% | -92.89% | +17.58% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -74.71% | -92.11% | +17.40% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -48.66% | -43.76% | -4.90% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 9.44% | 12.26% | -2.82% |
Volatility
SPDN vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) is 4.51%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 6.50%. This indicates that SPDN experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.51% | 6.50% | -1.99% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 9.82% | 19.35% | -9.53% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 12.59% | 27.91% | -15.32% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 16.95% | 46.59% | -29.64% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 18.04% | 43.86% | -25.82% |
SPDN vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
SPDN has a 0.50% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
SPDN vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
SPDN's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.02%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | 4.02% | 4.06% | 5.32% | 5.84% | 0.96% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 1.89% | 1.24% | 0.42% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
SPDN and TMF have a correlation of -0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (6.50%) compared to SPDN (4.51%). In terms of maximum drawdown, SPDN dropped -75.31% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, SPDN leads with -12.66% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, SPDN is cheaper at 0.50% per year. On volatility, SPDN has been the lower-risk option at 4.51%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPDN has performed better with a -12.66% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPDN is cheaper with a 0.50% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 4.02% for SPDN.
SPDN is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. SPDN tracks S&P 500 Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.50% for SPDN and 1.01% for TMF.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.10 vs -1.19), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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