SPDN vs. TMF
SPDN (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - SPDN is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the S&P 500 Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, SPDN returned -12.22%/yr vs -17.90%/yr for TMF. At a 0.08 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. SPDN charges 0.50%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
SPDN vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, SPDN achieves a -6.85% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -10.63% return. Over the past 10 years, SPDN has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -12.22%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.90% annualized return.
SPDN
- 1D
- 0.93%
- 1M
- -0.80%
- 6M
- -5.24%
- YTD
- -6.85%
- 1Y
- -12.68%
- 3Y*
- -11.24%
- 5Y*
- -8.03%
- 10Y*
- -12.22%
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
SPDN vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | -6.85% | -11.09% | -12.88% | -15.04% | 18.63% | -23.72% | -24.56% | -21.94% | 5.41% | -17.16% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between SPDN and TMF is -0.20, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.20 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 8, 2016 | 0.08 |
The correlation between SPDN and TMF shifts across timeframes, from -0.20 (1 year) to 0.08 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
SPDN vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
SPDN
TMF
SPDN vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.79 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.29 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.85 | 0.99 | -0.14 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.80 | -0.22 | -0.58 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.53 | -0.46 | -1.08 |
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Drawdowns
SPDN vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum SPDN drawdown since its inception was -75.31%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SPDN and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -75.31% | -92.89% | +17.58% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -15.93% | -26.51% | +10.58% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -38.24% | -55.14% | +16.90% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -43.85% | -88.81% | +44.96% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -73.97% | -92.89% | +18.92% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -74.91% | -92.60% | +17.69% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -48.79% | -43.91% | -4.88% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 8.28% | 12.82% | -4.54% |
Volatility
SPDN vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares (SPDN) is 4.18%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.51%. This indicates that SPDN experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| SPDN | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.18% | 8.51% | -4.33% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.08% | 19.94% | -9.86% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 12.73% | 27.62% | -14.89% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 16.97% | 46.54% | -29.57% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 18.01% | 43.72% | -25.71% |
SPDN vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
SPDN has a 0.50% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
SPDN vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
SPDN's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.33%, less than TMF's 4.42% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares | 3.33% | 4.06% | 5.32% | 5.84% | 0.96% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 1.89% | 1.24% | 0.42% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
SPDN and TMF have a correlation of -0.20, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to SPDN (4.18%). In terms of maximum drawdown, SPDN dropped -75.31% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, SPDN leads with -12.22% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, SPDN is cheaper at 0.50% per year. On volatility, SPDN has been the lower-risk option at 4.18%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPDN has performed better with a -12.22% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPDN is cheaper with a 0.50% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.42%, compared with 3.33% for SPDN.
SPDN is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. SPDN tracks S&P 500 Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.50% for SPDN and 1.01% for TMF.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.21 vs -1.00), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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