PALD vs. TMF

Last updated Jul 21, 2026

PALD (Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - PALD is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Direxion, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). PALD is actively managed, while TMF is passively managed. Over the past year, PALD returned -49.74% vs -4.28% for TMF. At a correlation of -0.08, they often move in opposite directions. PALD charges 1.02%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

PALD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares (PALD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, PALD achieves a -52.20% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -11.04% return.

PALD

• 1D: 2.84%
• 1M: -19.43%
• 6M: -51.24%
• YTD: -52.20%
• 1Y: -49.74%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —
• ALL TIME*: -44.61%

TMF

• 1D: -2.07%
• 1M: -9.25%
• 6M: -12.35%
• YTD: -11.04%
• 1Y: -4.28%
• 3Y*: -21.59%
• 5Y*: -33.52%
• 10Y*: -17.99%
• ALL TIME*: -6.34%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

PALD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025
PALD Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares	-52.20%	-3.89%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-11.04%	-9.12%

Correlation

The correlation between PALD and TMF is -0.05, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.05
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 26, 2025	-0.08

Return for Risk

PALD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

PALD

PALD Risk / Return Rank: 1
PALD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 0
PALD Sortino Ratio Rank: 1
PALD Omega Ratio Rank: 1
PALD Calmar Ratio Rank: 3
PALD Martin Ratio Rank: 0

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

PALD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares (PALD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	PALD	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.21	-0.16	-1.05
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.94	-0.03	-1.91
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.78	1.00	-0.22
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.78	-0.16	-0.62
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.85	-0.32	-1.53

PALD vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current PALD Sharpe Ratio is -1.21, which is lower than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.16. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of PALD and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

PALD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum PALD drawdown since its inception was -63.69%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for PALD and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	PALD	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-63.69%	-92.89%	+29.20%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-63.69%	-26.51%	-37.18%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-53.47%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-62.65%	-92.64%	+29.99%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-24.95%	-43.97%	+19.02%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	26.88%	13.22%	+13.66%

Volatility

PALD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares (PALD) has a higher volatility of 17.45% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.53%. This indicates that PALD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	PALD	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	17.45%	7.53%	+9.92%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	35.87%	19.87%	+16.00%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	41.45%	27.62%	+13.83%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	41.79%	46.39%	-4.60%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	41.79%	43.72%	-1.93%

PALD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

PALD has a 1.02% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

PALD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

PALD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 5.45%, more than TMF's 4.44% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
PALD Direxion Daily PANW Bear 1X Shares	5.45%	3.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.44%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both PALD and TMF in my portfolio?

PALD and TMF have a correlation of -0.05, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, PALD or TMF?

PALD has higher volatility (17.45%) compared to TMF (7.53%). In terms of maximum drawdown, PALD dropped -63.69% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, PALD or TMF?

On 1-year performance, TMF leads with -4.28% vs -49.74% for PALD. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.53%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, PALD or TMF?

Over the 1-year period, TMF has performed better with a -4.28% return vs -49.74%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, PALD or TMF?

TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.02% for PALD.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, PALD or TMF?

PALD has the higher dividend yield at 5.45%, compared with 4.44% for TMF.

What is the main difference between PALD and TMF?

PALD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. Their fees differ too: 1.02% for PALD and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.16 vs -1.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.