NAIL vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 4, 2026

NAIL (Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NAIL is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, NAIL returned 3.96%/yr vs -16.56%/yr for TMF. At a 0.08 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. NAIL charges 0.99%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

NAIL vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, NAIL achieves a -23.44% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -6.13% return. Over the past 10 years, NAIL has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 3.96%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.56% annualized return.

NAIL

• 1D: -2.39%
• 1M: 1.50%
• YTD: -23.44%
• 6M: -42.68%
• 1Y: -20.27%
• 3Y*: -11.78%
• 5Y*: -14.07%
• 10Y*: 3.96%

TMF

• 1D: -1.14%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: -6.13%
• 6M: -11.63%
• 1Y: 0.90%
• 3Y*: -20.78%
• 5Y*: -30.52%
• 10Y*: -16.56%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

NAIL vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	-23.44%	-40.43%	-22.83%	259.61%	-75.23%	168.20%	-32.08%	184.63%	-73.96%	268.71%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-6.13%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	22.72%

Correlation

The correlation between NAIL and TMF is 0.42, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.42
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.37
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.27
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.10
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 20, 2015	0.08

Over the past year, NAIL and TMF have become more correlated (0.42) than their long-term average of 0.08, meaning their price movements have been converging.

NAIL vs. TMF - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	NAIL	TMF
Consumer Cyclical	71.8%	-
Industrials	19.1%	-
Basic Materials	8.6%	-
Real Estate	0.5%	-
Communication Services	-	-
Consumer Defensive	-	-
Energy	-	-
Financial Services	-	18.7%
Healthcare	-	-
Technology	-	-
Utilities	-	-

Return for Risk

NAIL vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

NAIL

NAIL Risk / Return Rank: 7
NAIL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 6
NAIL Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
NAIL Omega Ratio Rank: 9
NAIL Calmar Ratio Rank: 6
NAIL Martin Ratio Rank: 6

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 9
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 9
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 9

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

NAIL vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	NAIL	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.23	0.03	-0.26
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.27	0.25	+0.02
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.03	1.03	0.00
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.30	0.03	-0.33
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-0.53	0.08	-0.61
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

NAIL vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current NAIL Sharpe Ratio is -0.23, which is lower than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of 0.03. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of NAIL and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	NAIL	TMF	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.23	0.03	-0.26
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	-0.16	-0.66	+0.49
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.04	-0.38	+0.42
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	-0.00	-0.14	+0.13

Drawdowns

NAIL vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum NAIL drawdown since its inception was -93.75%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NAIL and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	NAIL	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-93.75%	-92.89%	-0.86%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-67.85%	-26.51%	-41.34%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-82.09%	-56.31%	-25.78%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-84.40%	-88.81%	+4.41%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-93.75%	-92.89%	-0.86%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-78.12%	-92.23%	+14.11%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.80%	-43.63%	-0.17%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	38.18%	11.49%	+26.69%

Volatility

NAIL vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has a higher volatility of 24.23% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 8.09%. This indicates that NAIL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	NAIL	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	24.23%	8.09%	+16.14%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	60.86%	19.01%	+41.85%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	87.63%	28.76%	+58.87%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	86.99%	46.75%	+40.24%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	89.20%	43.92%	+45.28%

NAIL vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

NAIL has a 0.99% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

NAIL vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

NAIL's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.04%, less than TMF's 4.15% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares	1.04%	1.55%	0.63%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.17%	0.35%	1.25%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.15%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both NAIL and TMF in my portfolio?

NAIL and TMF have a correlation of 0.42, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, NAIL or TMF?

NAIL has higher volatility (24.23%) compared to TMF (8.09%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NAIL dropped -93.75% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, NAIL or TMF?

On 10-year performance, NAIL leads with 3.96% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, NAIL is cheaper at 0.99% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 8.09%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, NAIL or TMF?

Over the 10-year period, NAIL has performed better with a 3.96% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, NAIL or TMF?

NAIL is cheaper with a 0.99% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, NAIL or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 1.04% for NAIL.

What is the main difference between NAIL and TMF?

NAIL is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. NAIL tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.99% for NAIL and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.03 vs -0.23), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.