NAIL vs. TMF
NAIL (Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - NAIL is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, NAIL returned 3.21%/yr vs -17.87%/yr for TMF. At a 0.09 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. NAIL charges 0.99%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
NAIL vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, NAIL achieves a -16.63% return, which is significantly lower than TMF's -10.33% return. Over the past 10 years, NAIL has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of 3.21%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -17.87% annualized return.
NAIL
- 1D
- 2.44%
- 1M
- -4.01%
- 6M
- -41.20%
- YTD
- -16.63%
- 1Y
- -31.84%
- 3Y*
- -20.84%
- 5Y*
- -9.46%
- 10Y*
- 3.21%
TMF
- 1D
- 0.34%
- 1M
- -5.43%
- 6M
- -11.84%
- YTD
- -10.33%
- 1Y
- -5.12%
- 3Y*
- -21.17%
- 5Y*
- -33.53%
- 10Y*
- -17.87%
NAIL vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares | -16.63% | -40.43% | -22.83% | 259.61% | -75.23% | 168.20% | -32.08% | 184.63% | -73.96% | 268.71% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.33% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between NAIL and TMF is 0.46, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.46 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.38 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.28 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.11 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 19, 2015 | 0.09 |
Over the past year, NAIL and TMF have become more correlated (0.46) than their long-term average of 0.09, meaning their price movements have been converging.
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Return for Risk
NAIL vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
NAIL
TMF
NAIL vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| NAIL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.17 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.09 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.47 | -0.19 | -0.28 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.76 | -0.40 | -0.36 |
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Drawdowns
NAIL vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum NAIL drawdown since its inception was -93.75%, roughly equal to the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for NAIL and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| NAIL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.75% | -92.89% | -0.86% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -67.85% | -26.51% | -41.34% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -82.09% | -55.14% | -26.95% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -84.40% | -88.81% | +4.41% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.75% | -92.89% | -0.86% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -76.18% | -92.58% | +16.40% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.08% | -43.92% | -0.16% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 41.98% | 12.91% | +29.07% |
Volatility
NAIL vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NAIL) has a higher volatility of 28.94% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.49%. This indicates that NAIL's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| NAIL | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 28.94% | 7.49% | +21.45% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 63.56% | 19.84% | +43.72% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 89.78% | 27.57% | +62.21% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 87.93% | 46.51% | +41.42% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 89.63% | 43.72% | +45.91% |
NAIL vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
NAIL has a 0.99% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
NAIL vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
NAIL's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.75%, less than TMF's 4.40% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAIL Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares | 0.75% | 1.55% | 0.63% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.35% | 1.25% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.40% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
NAIL and TMF have a correlation of 0.46, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
NAIL has higher volatility (28.94%) compared to TMF (7.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, NAIL dropped -93.75% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, NAIL leads with 3.21% vs -17.87% for TMF. On fees, NAIL is cheaper at 0.99% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, NAIL has performed better with a 3.21% return vs -17.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
NAIL is cheaper with a 0.99% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.40%, compared with 0.75% for NAIL.
NAIL is categorized as Leveraged Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. NAIL tracks Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (300%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 0.99% for NAIL and 1.01% for TMF.
TMF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.19 vs -0.36), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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