MSFD vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

MSFD (Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - MSFD is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the Microsoft Corporation (-100%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 3 years, MSFD returned -3.55%/yr vs -21.07%/yr for TMF. At a correlation of -0.05, they often move in opposite directions. MSFD charges 1.06%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.

Performance

MSFD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (MSFD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MSFD achieves a 24.19% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.67% return.

MSFD

• 1D: -3.08%
• 1M: 9.58%
• YTD: 24.19%
• 6M: 25.23%
• 1Y: 26.45%
• 3Y*: -3.55%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -0.62%
• 1M: 4.96%
• YTD: -4.67%
• 6M: -5.95%
• 1Y: -2.80%
• 3Y*: -21.07%
• 5Y*: -31.33%
• 10Y*: -16.87%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

MSFD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022
MSFD Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares	24.19%	-13.36%	-7.86%	-35.90%	3.88%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-4.67%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-24.04%

Correlation

The correlation between MSFD and TMF is -0.04, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.04
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.03
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 7, 2022	-0.05

Return for Risk

MSFD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

MSFD

MSFD Risk / Return Rank: 29
MSFD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 30
MSFD Sortino Ratio Rank: 32
MSFD Omega Ratio Rank: 32
MSFD Calmar Ratio Rank: 25
MSFD Martin Ratio Rank: 28

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

MSFD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (MSFD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	MSFD	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.01	-0.10	+1.11
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	1.63	0.05	+1.58
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.20	1.01	+0.20
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	1.14	-0.11	+1.25
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	3.69	-0.23	+3.92

MSFD vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MSFD Sharpe Ratio is 1.01, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MSFD and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

MSFD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MSFD drawdown since its inception was -59.90%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MSFD and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	MSFD	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-59.90%	-92.89%	+32.99%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-23.25%	-26.51%	+3.26%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-40.50%	-56.09%	+15.59%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-88.81%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-43.99%	-92.11%	+48.12%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-41.61%	-43.76%	+2.15%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	7.35%	12.26%	-4.91%

Volatility

MSFD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (MSFD) has a higher volatility of 11.74% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 6.50%. This indicates that MSFD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MSFD	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	11.74%	6.50%	+5.24%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	22.81%	19.35%	+3.46%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	26.33%	27.91%	-1.58%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	26.27%	46.59%	-20.32%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	26.27%	43.86%	-17.59%

MSFD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison

MSFD has a 1.06% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.

Dividends

MSFD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

MSFD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.52%, less than TMF's 4.09% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
MSFD Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares	2.52%	3.33%	4.46%	4.43%	0.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.09%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MSFD and TMF in my portfolio?

MSFD and TMF have a correlation of -0.04, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MSFD or TMF?

MSFD has higher volatility (11.74%) compared to TMF (6.50%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MSFD dropped -59.90% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which ETF is better, MSFD or TMF?

On 3-year performance, MSFD leads with -3.55% vs -21.07% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 6.50%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, MSFD or TMF?

Over the 3-year period, MSFD has performed better with a -3.55% return vs -21.07%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, MSFD or TMF?

TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.06% for MSFD.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, MSFD or TMF?

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.09%, compared with 2.52% for MSFD.

What is the main difference between MSFD and TMF?

MSFD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. MSFD tracks Microsoft Corporation (-100%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.06% for MSFD and 1.01% for TMF.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

MSFD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.01 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.