MSFD vs. TMF
MSFD (Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - MSFD is a Inverse Equities fund tracking the Microsoft Corporation (-100%), while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 3 years, MSFD returned -10.70%/yr vs -20.63%/yr for TMF. Their -0.04 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. MSFD charges 1.06%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
MSFD vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, MSFD achieves a -1.78% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -16.67% return.
MSFD
- 1D
- -2.88%
- 1M
- -18.05%
- 6M
- -11.78%
- YTD
- -1.78%
- 1Y
- 7.40%
- 3Y*
- -10.70%
- 5Y*
- —
- 10Y*
- —
- ALL TIME*
- -15.36%
TMF
- 1D
- -2.08%
- 1M
- -12.05%
- 6M
- -15.79%
- YTD
- -16.67%
- 1Y
- -18.44%
- 3Y*
- -20.63%
- 5Y*
- -34.74%
- 10Y*
- -18.47%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.68%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $21.45M | $15.41M | $22.03M | |
| $161.82M | $130.43M | $127.82M |
MSFD vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFD Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares | -1.78% | -13.36% | -7.86% | -35.90% | 3.88% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -16.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -24.04% |
Correlation
The correlation between MSFD and TMF is -0.01, meaning there was essentially no consistent relationship between their historical price movements. Each responded to its own set of market drivers.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.01 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.02 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 7, 2022 | -0.04 |
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Return for Risk
MSFD vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
MSFD
TMF
MSFD vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (MSFD) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| MSFD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.85 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +1.24 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.09 | 0.93 | +0.16 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.36 | -0.53 | +0.88 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.20 | -1.07 | +2.27 |
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Drawdowns
MSFD vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum MSFD drawdown since its inception was -59.90%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -93.10%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MSFD and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| MSFD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -59.90% | -93.10% | +33.20% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.54% | -28.69% | +2.15% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -40.50% | -50.64% | +10.14% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | — | -89.14% | — |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -93.10% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -55.70% | -93.10% | +37.40% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -41.72% | -44.07% | +2.35% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.87% | 14.10% | -6.23% |
Volatility
MSFD vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares (MSFD) has a higher volatility of 18.10% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 7.21%. This indicates that MSFD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| MSFD | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 18.10% | 7.21% | +10.89% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 27.83% | 19.98% | +7.85% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 32.03% | 27.35% | +4.68% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 27.55% | 46.36% | -18.81% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 27.55% | 43.70% | -16.15% |
MSFD vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
MSFD has a 1.06% expense ratio, which is higher than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
MSFD vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
MSFD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.02%, less than TMF's 4.74% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSFD Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares | 4.02% | 3.33% | 4.46% | 4.43% | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.74% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% |
Frequently Asked Questions
MSFD and TMF have a correlation of -0.01, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
MSFD has higher volatility (18.10%) compared to TMF (7.21%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MSFD dropped -59.90% vs TMF's -93.10%.
On 3-year performance, MSFD leads with -10.70% vs -20.63% for TMF. On fees, TMF is cheaper at 1.01% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.21%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 3-year period, MSFD has performed better with a -10.70% return vs -20.63%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TMF is cheaper with a 1.01% expense ratio, compared with 1.06% for MSFD.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.74%, compared with 4.02% for MSFD.
MSFD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. MSFD tracks Microsoft Corporation (-100%), while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Their fees differ too: 1.06% for MSFD and 1.01% for TMF.
MSFD currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.30 vs -0.55), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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